Raleigh (with a little help from Cary & Durham) was ranked #1 by Businessweek when comparing, culture, business opportunity, housing, education and a host of other items in deciding their best places to live in America.  Click here to read the entire story:  http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/which-is-americas-best-city-09202011.html

The Next Big Boom Towns in the U.S.

by Joel Kotkin
Monday, July 11, 2011

What cities are best positioned to grow and prosper in the coming decade?

To determine the next boom towns in the U.S., Forbes, with the help of Mark Schill at the Praxis Strategy Group, took the 52 largest metro areas in the country (those with populations exceeding 1 million) and ranked them based on various data indicating past, present and future vitality.

We started with job growth, not only looking at performance over the past decade but also focusing on growth in the past two years, to account for the possible long-term effects of the Great Recession. That accounted for roughly one-third of the score. The other two-thirds were made up of a a broad range of demographic factors, all weighted equally. These included rates of family formation (percentage growth in children 5-17), growth in educated migration, population growth and, finally, a broad measurement of attractiveness to immigrants — as places to settle, make money and start businesses.

We focused on these demographic factors because college-educated migrants (who also tend to be under 30), new families and immigrants will be critical in shaping the future. Areas that are rapidly losing young families and low rates of migration among educated migrants are the American equivalents of rapidly aging countries like Japan; those with more sprightly demographics are akin to up and coming countries such as Vietnam.

Many of our top performers are not surprising. No. 1 Austin, Texas, and No. 2 Raleigh, N.C., have it all demographically: high rates of immigration and migration of educated workers and healthy increases in population and number of children. They are also economic superstars, with job-creation records among the best in the nation.

Perhaps less expected is the No. 3 ranking for Nashville, Tenn. The country music capital, with its low housing prices and pro-business environment, has experienced rapid growth in educated migrants, where it ranks an impressive fourth in terms of percentage growth. New ethnic groups, such as Latinos and Asians, have doubled in size over the past decade.

Two advantages Nashville and other rising Southern cities like No. 8 Charlotte, N.C., possess are a mild climate and smaller scale. Even with population growth, they do not suffer the persistent transportation bottlenecks that strangle the older growth hubs. At the same time, these cities are building the infrastructure — roads, cultural institutions and airports — critical to future growth. Charlotte’s bustling airport may never be as big as Atlanta’s Hartsfield, but it serves both major national and international routes.

Of course, Texas metropolitan areas feature prominently on our list of future boom towns, including No. 4 San Antonio, No. 5 Houston and No. 7 Dallas, which over the past years boasted the biggest jump in new jobs, over 83,000. Aided by relatively low housing prices and buoyant economies, these Lone Star cities have become major hubs for jobs and families.

And there’s more growth to come. With its strategically located airport, Dallas is emerging as the ideal place for corporate relocations. And Houston, with its burgeoning port and dominance of the world energy business, seems destined to become ever more influential in the coming decade. Both cities have emerged as major immigrant hubs, attracting on newcomers at a rate far higher than old immigrant hubs like Chicago, Boston and Seattle.

The three other regions in our top 10 represent radically different kinds of places. The Washington, D.C., area (No. 6) sprawls from the District of Columbia through parts of Virginia, Maryland and West Virginia. Its great competitive advantage lies in proximity to the federal government, which has helped it enjoy an almost shockingly “good recession,” with continuing job growth, including in high-wage science- and technology-related fields, and an improving real estate market.

Our other two top ten, No. 9 Phoenix, Ariz., and No. 10 Orlando, Fla., have not done well in the recession, but both still have more jobs now than in 2000. Their demographics remain surprisingly robust. Despite some anti-immigrant agitation by local politicians, immigrants still seem to be flocking to both of these states. Known better as retirement havens, their ranks of children and families have surged over the past decade. Warm weather, pro-business environments and, most critically, a large supply of affordable housing should allow these regions to grow, if not in the overheated fashion of the past, at rates both steadier and more sustainable.

Sadly, several of the nation’s premier economic regions sit toward the bottom of the list, notably former boom town Los Angeles (No. 47). Los Angeles’ once huge and vibrant industrial sector has shrunk rapidly, in large part the consequence of ever-tightening regulatory burdens. Its once magnetic appeal to educated migrants faded and families are fleeing from persistently high housing prices, poor educational choices and weak employment opportunities. Los Angeles lost over 180,000 children 5 to 17, the largest such drop in the nation.

Many of L.A.’s traditional rivals — such as Chicago (with which is tied at No. 47), New York City (No. 35) and San Francisco (No. 42) — also did poorly on our prospective list. To be sure, they will continue to reap the benefits of existing resources — financial institutions, universities and the presence of leading companies — but their future prospects will be limited by their generally sluggish job creation and aging demographics.

Of course, even the most exhaustive research cannot fully predict the future. A significant downsizing of the federal government, for example, would slow the D.C. region’s growth. A big fall in energy prices, or tough restrictions of carbon emissions, could hit the Texas cities, particularly Houston, hard. If housing prices stabilize in the Northeast or West Coast, less people will flock to places like Phoenix, Orlando or even Indianapolis (No. 11), Salt Lake City (No. 12) and Columbus (No. 13). One or more of our now lower ranked locales, like Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York, might also decide to reform in order to become more attractive to small businesses and middle class families.

What is clear is that well-established patterns of job creation and vital demographics will drive future regional growth, not only in the next year, but over the coming decade. People create economies and they tend to vote with their feet when they choose to locate their families as well as their businesses. This will prove more decisive in shaping future growth than the hip imagery and big city-oriented PR flackery that dominate media coverage of America’s changing regions.

The Next Big Boom Towns in the U.S.

©Forbes Images

 

No. 1: Austin, Texas

This is no surprise. Austin consistently sits atop Forbes’ annual list of the best cities for jobs and scores highly in other demographics rankings. It is the third-fastest-growing city in the nation, attracting large numbers of college grads, immigrants and families with young children.
 

©Forbes Images

 

No. 2: Raleigh, N.C.

Raleigh has experienced the second-highest overall population increase and the third-highest job growth over the past two decades in the U.S. It also ranked among those regions seeing the biggest jump in new immigrants and is the No. 1 city for families with young children. The area is a magnet for technology companies fleeing the more expensive, congested and highly regulated northeast corridor. Affordable housing and short commute times are no doubt highly attractive to recent college graduates and millennials looking to start families.

©Forbes Images

 

No. 3: Nashville, Tenn.

The country music capital, with its low housing prices and pro-business environment, has experienced rapid growth in educated migrants, where it ranks an impressive fourth in terms of percentage growth. New ethnic groups, such as Latinos and Asians, have doubled in size over the past decade. A high quality of life, a vibrant cultural and music scene and a diverse population also make Nashville a desirable place to live.

©Forbes Images

 

No. 4: San Antonio, Texas

Like its other Texas neighbors, San Antonio boasts soaring population rates as well as a good job market and booming industry. One key factor in San Antonio’s favor: stable house prices — even by Texas standards. PMI Mortgage Insurance’s most recent risk index, which is a two-year measure, lists San Antonio as having the lowest risk from falling prices among large Texas cities.

©Forbes Images

 

No. 5: Houston, Texas

Low housing prices, a stable job market and a vibrant immigrant community has helped Houston emerge as future boomtown. And with its burgeoning port and dominance of the world energy business, the area seems destined to become even more influential in the coming decade.

     Trulia, one of the websites that I use for marketing my properties recently took an informal poll of what buyers look for in hiring a Real Estate profession to represent them.  I wasn’t surprised by their findings:

1. Honesty and Credibility.  Yes,  there are real estate agents whose exaggerations and false claims would even shame a used car salesman.  If you look long enough you can also find horror stories about doctors, dentists, attorneys and most every other professional.  Buyers have heard about all the stereotypes and just want an agent who can be straight with them.  Buyer have expressed how hard it is to trust anyone in today’s real estate market so it  has become even more important for Realtors to help them feel comfortable and “safe”.

2. Area Familiarity.  Buyers want an agent who can tell them EVERYTHING about their chosen area: schools, parks, restaurants, things to do, crime and safety.  The more knowledgeable the agent, the better resource they will be.

3. Good Follow Through.  Buyers want an agent who does what they say they will do.  There are few things as frustrating as being promised a relocation package, an email of listings, recommendations on contractors,  etc, and receiving nothing. 

4. Organization.  Buyers expect agents to be organized in returning phone calls and staying on top of ongoing transactions.  We are supposed to be the experienced professionals who have sold so many houses that everything should be routine.

5. Be a Good Listener.  Buyers want their agent to listen to what they are saying, process it and understand their wants and needs.  They don’t want an agent to make assumptions without listening to all of the facts first.

6. Testamonials and Recommendations.  Buyers will always feel more comfortable in working with someone whom their friends have recommended or who comes with excellent third party testamonials.

     Yikes!!  It’s happened again.  Another of my customers has called me to see a property for sale that doesn’t exist.  Well, it exists but it is not currently for sale.  My customer found it on one of the small aggregaor sites that collects home listings but then never gets the update on when the price has changed or even more important, when it has sold.

     With the National Association of Realtors (NAR) stating that better than 9 out of 10 buyers are looking  online for homes it is not surprising that they are finding all kinds of online errors like out of date pricing to more misleading statements regarding factual information like touting a partially finished basement as fully redone or a new roof as something done 10 years ago.  According to Trulia.com , about 21% of the data that agents individually post online isn’t updated when changes are made to the price or when the property is sold.  There is a clear advantage to the lazy, inattentive or unscrupulous agent in leaving sold listings online in that potential buyers will still contact them on those properties and can then be pitched to new properties the agent may have available.  A spokesman for the NAR  said that such lagging information could be a function of real estate agents simply forgetting to update those listings posted on those smaller websites.  Whatever the case may be it is still a waste of time for the buyer.

     The due diligence concept is something new to us here in NC residential real estate although it has long been common practice in commercial real estate.  Due diligence is the time that the buyer has “purchased” per contract to allow for inspections on the property as well as for the buyer to get his loan into a comfortable position.  What this means is that the buyer is going to spend money to have a structural inspection, a radon inspection, a wood destroying insect inspection along with whatever additional inspection that the buyer may need to feel comfortable that he is getting the home he thinks he should be getting without any hidden surprises.  The buyer will be well advised to negotiate all repairs with the expectation of having repairs done by the end of the due diligence period.  The buyer should also be working hand in hand with his lender to insure that the loan situation is such that the buyer feels comfortable going forward with the purchase at the end of the due diligence period.  The due diligence expiration date can also be negotiated to be extended as long as all parties agree.  

     The end of the due diligence period signals a shift in which party is carrying the risk of the contract not closing.  The buyer has the right to unilaterally terminate the contract anytime and for any reason during the due diligence time period and is still entitled to the return of his full earnest money deposit, although any due diligence money is already the seller’s money.  Once the due diligence period has ended, the seller keeps the earnest money unless the seller is unable to deliver clear title to the property and can’t close.  In that one instance, the seller must return all of the buyer’s earnest money along with reimbursing the buyer for their expenses in the transaction (inspection expenses, appraisal expenses, attorney expenses to name a few expenses).  Inability of the buyer to get their loan, loss of job, transfer fall through are no longer reasons for the buyer to get their earnest money back once the due diligence period has ended.

     What is a reasonable amount of time for the due diligence period?  A cash transaction on an “as is” sale may need as few as 5 days, just time enough for inspections to buyer’s satisfaction.  Whereas a sale involving an exotic loan may need as much as 60 days.  This is one more reason why you need an experienced Realtor to assist you in a home purchase or sale.  #buying a home, #buying a home in Raleigh, #buying a home in Cary

If you are planning to successfully negotiate and buy the dream house you’ve just found, you’ll need to keep in mind that negotiations are NOT a bloodsport.  I agree that current market conditions generally favor buyers over sellers because there are a lot of nice homes available and not enough buyers for all of them.  However, an important message that I’ve always told all of my buyers is that “you aren’t going to get the house unless you can make the seller smile”.  What I mean by that is you’ll need to have the seller satisfied with what they are getting for the house.  Given the market, they may not be happy with the price they are accepting, but they have to be satisfied, otherwise they won’t sign the contract.  Trying to rationalize with a seller that their home is only worth what you are offering and browbeating them over your price is not a winning strategy.

While your friends and especially your family members will be your strongest advocates in telling you that you need to buy a house, they can also cause you to lose your dream home.  Their goal is to help you get your home for the least amount of money.   However, in trying to get an extra $5,000 or $10,000 off the price, their strategies may push you into turning off the seller and losing the house to another buyer.  As well intentioned as family and friends may be, they aren’t working in the field trying to sell homes on a daily basis as is your Realtor, so their knowledge of the local real estate market may not be good as they think it is.  Keep in mind that the news “everyone knows” about the real estate market is from the national reports we hear about with medians, averages and trends.  This knowledge may not apply whatsoever to the house and neighborhood that you’ve fallen in love with.  As you keep hearing in the tag line of the National Association of Realtors, “Every Market is Different, so contact your local Realtor”.

I always try to make house hunting a very enjoyable and fun experience for all of my buyers.  Somewhere in the course of looking at other people’s homes you’re bound to be amazed by what you see (for better or worse!) and it is important to maintain your sence of humor as you go along.  I advise my clients to sit down and write out a list of the things that they HAVE to have in their next home and a list of things that they WANT to have.  An important addition to knowing what they have to have is recognizing that there is no perfect house.  Finding the right home will be a compromise between getting those items that are truly the most important HAVE to have when balanced against price, location and the WANT to haves that come with the house.

Its important to begin your house hunting by getting rid of the preconceived notion that a house has to be a foreclosure or a short sale to be a good deal.  Our local Raleigh NC market is less than 15% distressed properties, so the vast majority of sales are going to be from “normal” home sellers, not banks or institutions.  Individual home sellers may be highly motivated to give a great deal on their property if they are dealing with the need to downsize or upsize, a job transfer, an estate sale or many other factors.  The most positive factor to remember when dealing with individual sellers is that they will generally be willing to complete needed repairs to get the house sold.  Distressed sales are generally sold “as is”.

The most important aspect of house hunting is just to do it.  Home affordability is at its best level in years with interest rates still near historic lows.  Homesellers are motivated with anyone making an offer on their home because there aren’t enough buyers to absorb the available housing stock and they can never be sure when they will get another offer.

     The Raleigh/Cary metro area was just ranked #3 among  ”America’s Least Toxic cities” by Forbes.com in a feature on environmentally healthy communities.  The study looks at air and water quality as well as pollution in the Raleigh/Cary metro area covering Wake, Johnston and Franklin counties.  Forbes ranked the 80 largests metro areas in the US.

     Raleigh ranked #1 in the country’s water quality.  Multiple land trusts protect over 5460 acres around Falls Lake and other waterways to maintain an awareness of the value of clean water.

     Raleigh’s air quality and Superfund sites placement were not as outstanding with the metro area placing #41 in air quality and #24 in Superfund sites.  However the city is working hard to impove its ranking by adding hybrids to its vehicle fleet and has launched a downtown hybrid electric bus system.  The Superfund sites are all in various stages of cleanup and remediation.

Getting prequalified for a loan is the first concrete step you need to take in your journey of becoming a homeowner.  The prequalification process doesn’t take long and it doesn’t cost you anything.  So what have you got to lose?  You’ll have a conversation with a lender (best to use one recommended by your Realtor or a friend with recent homebuying experience).  You can likely complete a small amount of paperwork online.  One of the first things the lender will need to do is to pull your credit history.  Unfortunately for some people this can be an unpleasant surprise as those missed payments, overlooked bills or fraud can wreck havoc on your credit score.  However, help is nearby as many lenders have a credit repair program within their office.  Your lender may also request additional information to verify your income and assets.  It is possible to get prequalified without a credit check or verification but if those issues have already been resolved, your lender may be able to give you documentation that is even better than a prequalification, that would be a preapproval letter.

     The purpose of having a prequalificatin or a preapproval is that you will KNOW how much house you can afford.  You will not waste your time looking at homes that are outside your affordability limits.  If you start by first looking at homes that are over your price range, when you finally start looking at homes that you can afford, none of them will look good as what you’ve already seen because you’ve already set your expectations for a home you can’t afford.

     Having a preapproval gives you power in negociations as the seller knows that you should be able to close on the house in the timeframe you’ve indicated and may be more willing to accept less than what they wanted.  Preapproval gives you peace of mind in that you’ll know that you can comfortably afford the dream house that you found.#Raleigh homes, #Cary homes,

     Before you dive into the Raleigh NC or Cary NC  home buying market or even dip your toes in to see what’s available, its best to first take a good look at where you currently are financially, job-wise and family-wise.  With everyone telling you that its a great time to buy with affordability at an all time high, foreclosures driving prices down and lots of anxious sellers, it is still necessary to step back and do some realistic analysis before getting into the excitement of the house hunt.

     Realistic buyers will decide that the time may be right for them IF: 1) they like the area that they are in and want to make it more permanent, 2) their family plans and the implications of expansion or downsizing seem under control, 3) their career path is stable with the reasonable expectation of job and/or income stability, 4) their financial plans (college tuition, retirement savings, etc.) mesh with their housing expectations.  It generally does not make sense to purchase a home if you know you will be leaving the area in less than 3 years or if you are anticipating a major life-changing event in the immediate or near future.  People talk about “timing the market”, but there is never a way of knowing if you are at the top or at the bottom of the market until the moment has passed.