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Archive for December 2008

What do the Communities of Tempe Offer?

Tuesday, December 30th, 2008

Tempe’s community is a microcosm of the real estate market in the Phoenix area. The rectangle that represents the Tempe community is evenly divided into 4 zip codes – 85281 through 85284 from north to south. Downtown Tempe, Arizona State University and historic Tempe buildings are all located in 85281, and a journey south from this area is a veritable history of real estate in Arizona. As the city developed south over the past 50 years there are samples of styles and periods of Arizona residential real estate represented throughout the city and Tempe communities.

Tempe Community
Tempe Community

85282 covers the area from Broadway to Baseline and was built from mid 1950s to early 1970s. This Tempe community is characterized by block homes on medium to large lots. A few of the older neighborhoods still have flood irrigation systems, which has meant a lot of large trees and, consequently, shade. Due to the proximity to ASU these neighborhoods have always maintained their value. In the past decades many homes in the community have become rentals, but as the flight from the suburbs of the Valley continues, these older homes are attracting new owners with remodel and upgrade ideas. There are some opportunities in the community to buy in the mid $100,000s all the way to million dollar homes in pockets of custom home subdivisions.

The 85283 community stretches from Baseline to Elliot and was built from the early 1970s into the 1980s. The Lakes, Kiwanis Park and Ken McDonald Golf Course were part of the community development in this area. Again, a wide range of prices is available from small 1100 square foot homes in the $100,000s to million dollar waterfront homes in The Lakes. Typically waterfront property starts at $500,000. Marcos de Niza High School is in the center of this community, and many fine neighborhoods are represented here with block homes and medium-sized lots in the $300,000s.

85284 is where home prices have been the highest in Tempe’s communities. It contains several gated communities with homes close to the million-dollar mark, and the older and sought after Pecan Grove subdivision. There is a county island with very large lots that have horse privileges with street names like Citation and Secretariat. Warner Ranch Estate is one of the largest subdivisions in Tempe and has historically been a popular area for young families. This area is in the Kyrene Elementary School District and Corona Del Sol is the High School.

The community of 85281 is north of Broadway and extends north of Tempe Town Lake to the
Scottsdale border. I have saved this zip code to last because it has everything! Due to in fill projects and redevelopment, we find everything from small homes on large lots from the 1940s and earlier, to brand new small subdivisions tucked in older neighborhoods. But most importantly the development of the Downtown community and the lake has meant that Tempe is moving into the 21st Century with mid- and high-rise condo projects on the lake and in and around the downtown area. Finally with the advent of light rail that will run right through the middle of this community, we will be seeing a resurgence in the neighborhoods along the light rail corridor and a lot of mixed-use development right along the rail line.

So the communities of Tempe are a reflection of the entire Valley in terms of types of homes available. Tempe (and in particular 85281) truly offers homes for every taste and pocket book.

The Real Estate Market by the Numbers

Thursday, December 11th, 2008

November was not a good month for the Tempe housing market. Even allowing for the seasonal fluctuations in the real estate market (November tends to be one of the slowest months for Real Estate sales) the supply of new listings continues at the same pace but the number of closed sales has dropped.

The period of time needed to clear the housing market inventory has gone from a low of seven months (May/June 2008) back up to the mid teens for Tempe and Maricopa County. We haven’t seen those market numbers since November 2007 when I announced that the real estate market had bottomed out. Could this be a new housing market bottom?

Now for the Good Housing Market News:

At a recent Real Estate economic forecast forum one presenter, Valley economist Elliot Pollack, opened his remarks about the market with the comment, “If you thought ’08 was bad, then ’09 will be terrible.”

There is a silver lining to this housing market cloud. Both for residential (now) and commercial (soon to follow), we are becoming one of the most affordable real estate markets in the country. So as soon as there is an economic turnaround, Phoenix and Tempe will be one of the first real estate markets companies will be looking for bargains in relocation both for their company facilities as well as housing for their employees. There will be great deals available in Tempe Real Estate.

This housing market optimism was echoed by a report quoted in the Arizona Republic, from national Real Estate economist Tim Sullivan, who indicated that, using seven criteria to track the Real Estate Market recovery for the Phoenix area, all points are positive.
These are the seven positive real estate market indicators:

  1. Re-sales are below a 7-month supply (this one is out-of-date based on “by the numbers” above)
  2. Home sales have stopped slowing
  3. New home permits are falling
  4. Mortgage applications are increasing
  5. Interest rates are below 6%
  6. Affordability has improved
  7. Several home builders have gone away

So where is the real estate market recovery? What are we waiting for? Dare I say … Banks? Loans are still difficult to get, substantial down payments are required, and the processing of foreclosures is moving along at a snail’s pace?

Real Estate Recovery Now Tied to Job Recovery:

So for the housing market to recover, we may need to wait for the spring when the $121 million of federal funds arrives in Arizona to help with cleaning up the distressed neighborhoods from foreclosures and, more importantly, if and when the Obama stimulus package starts putting people back to work.

Dr. Jay Butler, Associate Professor of Real Estate at ASU, recently confirmed the impact of jobs on the Real Estate Market recovery. Putting people back to work will be the single most important factor that will slow the foreclosure rate and re-establish consumer confidence.  When we see the unemployment numbers start to drop that will be a signal and, when they get back below 4.5%, we will be in recovery mode.

In the meantime buyers have a large inventory to choose from and sellers are anxious to meet their demands. Conclusion: It is still a buyer’s market in Tempe Real Estate.

I’m thinking about selling my home, but should I to wait to sell until the market recovers?

Thursday, December 4th, 2008

Whether you should sell your home now or wait to sell depends on if you want to move up or down in home value. If you are moving in home value up then you should buy before the housing market recovers.

Once the housing market recovers, if home prices increase by, for example, 10%, you would sell your $500k home for $550k but the $700k home you purchase would cost $770k. In this example that is a $20k net cost.

If you are downsizing, it is probably best if you wait to sell. Although, some lenders are promoting reverse mortgages. A reverse mortgage provides an income stream to finance the purchase of a new home. Your old home would then be rented until the market recovers and then sold thereafter. When the home is sold, mortgages can be paid off or refinanced.

Another factor to keep in mind is interest rates. If interest rates decrease
.5% then it is advantageous to lock in the decreased rate. So, don’t forget to watch interest rates and factor rates in to your decision to buy.

Tempe, AZ Housing Market Update

Monday, December 1st, 2008

The Tempe, AZ home sales numbers for October show that there continues to be no change in the supply and demand factors within the housing market. In Tempe we are still bouncing along the bottom of a somewhat stagnant housing market. The $64,000 dollar question is: When will the Tempe real estate market turn?

In Tempe, in order to help the housing market, availability of credit is the single most important factor, especially for first-time home buyers. As soon as the lending institutions “lighten up” and send some favorable signals from their underwriters, we will see an increase in demand on the housing market and those great deals that you see on the real estate market right now will become scarce.

A secondary factor for a change in the housing market is the number of Tempe’s foreclosures. If the new administration can stem the tide of foreclosures, the inventory on the real estate market will decrease, propelling investors and home buyers who have been sitting on the fence, to start writing realistic offers.

To those Tempe residents wondering about the housing market, I have asked all my lenders to keep me posted if either of these two things happens–and you will be the first to know when housing market circumstances change if you continue to read my newsletters.

We expect to see a seasonal jump in Tempe after the holidays in the Real Estate market. Together with the financial climate, it will be seen as a bounce back. By then the smart money will already be in the game and in the housing market. For those of you who choose to wait till the market is prime, you may be playing catch up … remember the days of multiple offers?!

Waiting for the Housing Market Before You Sell?

If you are waiting for the recovery before you put your home on the housing market and you are wanting to move up (buy a bigger more expensive home) … DON’T! If your home is currently worth $300,000 with the current status of the housing market, you might be waiting for it to get back to $360,000. Unless you are upside down on a loan, please don’t wait. That $500,000 home you have been looking at will then be at $600,000 thus costing you $40,000 more after you sell your home. Buy now and you won’t have to compete with other buyers and you will have a seller more willing to make concessions.

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