Tempe

Last week I attended the Arizona 2010 Real Estate and Business Forecast. Elliot Pollack, Valley economist who has been providing Economic Forecasts for more than 25 years, presented valuable information for homeowners, buyers, sellers, and renters. There was also a panel of real estate experts from both residential and commercial specialties who essentially confirmed what Elliot Pollack reported.

The main message from the seminar was this:

• Economic recovery will be slow… there is no silver bullet.
• Home values may not be on track until 2013.
• The barometers of real estate recovery will be:

1) population growth which will be driven by

2) job growth or vice versa.

• Energy technology (wind, solar, etc.) will be more important than ever for Arizona’s economy. The semiconductor industry has gone overseas and don’t expect it to be back soon. Aerospace will concentrate in areas of research centers (not Arizona).
• Economic recovery could take four years and thus the 2013 time frame for the real estate market’s return to the highs of 2007.

For Renters:

Residential or commercial renters- now is the time to renegotiate your lease. There is a huge oversupply of rentals and landlords should be ready to take any deal they can get or they may have to see their properties empty and subject to vandalism.

For Buyers:

• First time buying a home? Now is the time.
• Buying a home is still cheaper than renting a home, but not for long.
• Interest rates have not been this low in years.
• The First-time Homebuyer Tax Credit will be available until this spring.
• Real Estate Deals are out there but the inventory of smoking deals is beginning to dry up.
• Talk to a mortgage lender and get qualified immediately.
• Affordability indices for the valley are at record lows.

“Buyers — you can buy more house now you could at any time in the past 11 years.” Elliot Pollack, Economist.

If you are considering purchasing a new home from a home builder, please remember it costs you nothing to have a buyer’s real estate agent represent you. If you decide to not have a real estate agent represent you, then you have no-one looking out for your best interests. If you want a better deal for you and your family, call me before you go out to look at those new homes. I can help.

For Homeowners:

• If you are happy in your home and not thinking of moving and can afford your mortgage, then count your blessings and enjoy your good fortune.
• If you are looking to cash in the equity in your home, then the longer you can wait the better.
• If you are thinking of moving up and you still have some equity in your home, then it is time to sell. (As your home value increases so will the cost of your new home.) And if you have been in your home for five of the last eight years, then there may be a tax credit available to you.
• If you are downsizing, then hang in there until you are good and ready to move.
• If you are upside-down and want or need to move, then a short sale may be a solution. It is a difficult and complicated path but we have some of the top short sale experts at our office and I would be happy to set up an appointment for you with them.
• If you are upside-down and want to reduce your monthly payments, you may want to start a conversation with your lender about loan modification.

Please call me to discuss any or all of the above scenarios. I am happy to help.

http://realestate.yahoo.com/Arizona/Tempe

More of the same…  this will be the third month that numbers have remained stable with regard to supply, demand and inventory. If you don’t remember or didn’t catch my August blog, please scroll down and read “By the Numbers” in the August Tempe Real Estate Market Update.

Home prices are up for the 4^th month in a row:

We have seen a slight up tick in average and median home prices.

Between April and July there has been a 9% increase in median and average price of homes sold in the Phoenix area. (Increasing from $115K to $125k and $160k to 175K respectively).  If this continues that would represent almost a 30% increase in a year.

So what will it take till everyone else jumps on board and agrees that the market has turned?  Just remember you read it here first….

Is it Time to Buy?

It is clearly still a good time to buy a home. There has only been a one month supply of foreclosures for sale for several months now. But remember, short sales continue to be “long sales” as the 10 month supply stays the same.

As the tax credit window continues to close, prices are starting to increase and I am sure interest rates will be next. Need I say more?

If you know someone who is thinking of buying or selling a home please forward this link to them….

Here is the least expensive idea for making your home energy efficient and it could save you big bucks….find out how.

Arizona homeowners can easily save money and increase the real estate market value of their residencies by simply sealing air leaks commonly found in many areas around the home. Sealing air leaks is one of the least costly (and least complicated) ways to begin or continue the process of “greening” a home. The task requires only a minimal investment of time and supplies, yet it yields a substantial payoff that can last many years. Sealing leaks keeps hot summer air out of circulation in the home and less air conditioner energy is needed to stay cool. Later on in the year when the cold winter air is also barred from entry, less heat is needed inside the home. This will save the homeowner money on electricity bills and will also make the home more attractive to buyers willing to pay more for an energy-efficient or green home.

To locate a leak, wait until there is wind activity outside, then hold a lit stick of incense up to any area in which a leak may occur such as doorways, windows, electrical outlets and switches. If the incense smoke moves in a horizontal, rather than vertical direction, a leak is present. Sealing windows with weather stripping and caulk will stop air leaks, as will the installation of foam gaskets behind outlet and light switch plates. And when air passes under closed doors because there is a space between the door bottom and the floor, a flexible sealing gasket can be attached to the door bottom. These really are easy fixes.

Your Tempe realtor and National Association of Realtors ® Green Designee, Patrick Walsh, is available to assist you with any step in the process of greening your home. The Tempe real estate market is warming up and if you are planning to sell, there is no time like the present to increase the energy efficiency and market value of your home through greening. Patrick Walsh can connect you with local green appliance, home improvement suppliers and contractors to help you get started on larger projects. Contact Patrick Walsh today at pwalsh@kw.com to let him know how he can be of service.

Further low-cost energy tips:

www.energysavers.gov

Oprah- Green Home Improvements

Perhaps the most significant stroke of President Obama’s pen up to this point actually took place during his first month in office – on February 17 of this year – when he signed The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 into law.  The federal tax credit of up to $8,000.00 for first-time homebuyers is an economically beneficial component of the act that a great number of U.S. taxpayers have enjoyed during the past 7 months.  But if you are a hopeful first-time buyer who has not yet seized this opportunity to save thousands of dollars on a residential purchase this year, be advised that only 3 months remain before the tax credit offer expires!  As of December 1, 2009, first-time homebuyers may no longer register for up to $8,000.00 in tax savings from Uncle Sam.  And remarkably, this is a tax credit that buyers do not have to pay back. This is really an incredible development, considering that the 2008 version of the ARR Act included up to only $7,500.00 in first-time homebuyer tax credit which had to be repaid.  On paper, that so-called credit was actually behaving as a government loan, rather than the much needed recovery funding assistance the tax credit became this year.

To qualify for the credit as a first-time homebuyer, an individual must not have purchased a new or used home (as a primary residence) within the past 3 years before the date of purchase.  Ineligibility of one spouse in a married couple means that neither spouse is eligible for the credit.  However, a parent who does not qualify may co-sign on a home loan for a son or daughter who is a first-time buyer and the son or daughter will receive the tax credit (as long as the son or daughter claims the home as primary residence).  A range of questions regarding tax credit eligibility are answered at the Internal Revenue Service website.

Additionally, to be eligible for the First-time Home Buyer Tax Credit, buyers must close escrow before December 1, 2009.  If you are interested in taking advantage of this tax incentive, we encourage you to start looking for your new home now in order to guarantee meeting the deadline.

Patrick Walsh, your local National Association of Realtors ® Green Designee realtor in Tempe, Arizona, is also your reliable source for information you need regarding the 2009 federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers. Let Patrick Walsh guide you through the steps involved in applying for the tax credit as you work together to locate your new home in the Tempe, Arizona area. Whether buying or selling, rely on Walsh and his team of realty experts to provide you with excellence in customer care and service throughout every stage of your home buying or selling experience.

Where have all the real estate deals gone?

There have been a couple of dramatic changes in the Phoenix real estate market in the last few weeks.  First, the inventory in the Baseline corridor has disappeared. The number of available real estate deals in the corridor has dropped from approximately 15-20 homes to 3 homes over night!!

Our Keller Williams bank owned property specialist has informed me that in the bank owned arena, there have been significant changes. Our bank owned property specialist was previously listing 20 new properties per week but is now listing 2 new properties per week.  Apparently, cash investors with large portfolios are by-passing the traditional real estate market and buying on the county steps at deed of trust sales.

What about properties that are upside down (the value of the home is less than the loan amount)?

Banks are dropping the asking price to an amount closer to market value right before homes are sold.  Bank owned properties are also being packaged for multiple property sales.

What does this mean for non-investors who are trying to buy or sell a single property?

Buying a home or selling a home just got a whole lot harder. Foreclosed properties are rapidly disappearing which is stabilizing the bottom end of the real estate market.

If you are looking for a real estate deal, the search just became more arduous. The good news is that phase one of the real estate market turnaround has begun!

By The Numbers:

Foreclosure sales (REOs or bank owned properties) have stabilized. The number of “properties for sale” and “sold properties” is nearly equal. Since May, home inventory has been approximately 1 month (meaning, at the current rate of sale, it would take 1 month for the inventory to be completely sold). Short sales continue to be long sales (meaning they take a LONG time to close).  The inventory of short sale homes has been constant for 6 months at 12,000, with 1,200 sold per month, causing at least a 10-month inventory of short sale homes.

Is it time to consider selling your home?

Not quite yet.  Home values are still down even though we are technically in a seller’s market that is being artificially caused by the foreclosure market. For traditional, private sales it is still a buyer’s market. There is currently a 7-month inventory of privately listed homes. We will enter a seller’s market when the inventory drops below 6 months.

Is it time to buy a home?

Absolutely.  I hope you have figured out that the window of opportunity is closing. Not only are the real estate deals (the REOs) disappearing, but the $8,000 first-time home buyers’ incentive ends at the end of this year.

What are the next steps to buying a home before all the deals and incentives are gone?

Get yourself pre-qualified with one of our lenders and let’s start looking for your next home today!

The real estate market is continuing to show signs of improvement after a consistent two-month drop in the absorption rate. The absorption rate is the ratio between active and solds: the time it would take at the current rate of sale for the inventory to be completely sold. For example, if there are 10,000 homes for sale in a region, and 1,000 are sold each month, the absorption rate would be 10.

At the end of April, the absorption rate for the valley was down to 5.5 – a few years ago, it wasn’t uncommon for a home in the Phoenix-metropolitan area to sit on the market for 25-30 months. Anything below an absorption rate of 6 is considered a seller’s market. At present, the absorption rate is down to an astonishing 4.3.

There are currently 40,034 homes for sale on the real estate market – in the beginning of April, there were 50,000 homes for sale. That is a 20 percent drop in inventory in just two months. The number of homes for sale is expected to drop below 40,000 by the end of the month. There are 13,669 pending sales expected to close in the next 30 days. During the month of May, 9,351 homes were sold – in April, 8,527 homes were sold (April 1-24). In short, there were 824 more homes sold and 2,432 fewer homes for sale in May than there were in April.

May was also a good month for Tempe. In Tempe, the absorption rate is now 6.6 – not even a month ago, the absorption rate was hovering at a 10 or 11 month absorption rate. The number of homes for sale in Tempe is 131, bringing the inventory of available homes down to 876.

Investors are still continuing to snatch up foreclosures – they are buying foreclosures at a faster rate than they are hitting the market. The absorption rate for foreclosures is less than 1.0. In the last month, 5,939 foreclosures were sold, leaving only 5,472 on the market. If you want to buy a home, don’t be discouraged – there are still plenty of homes and foreclosures out there. Just know that there is a strong chance that you will be competing against multiple offers.

Steady home sales could be positive signal (CNN Money)

More Americans Consider Buying Foreclose Homes (MarketWatch)

Realty Times Market Conditions: Arizona (Realty Times)

With the real estate market finally showing signs of life, it may be time for you to think about what you are looking for in a REALTOR® and in a home. A NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Green Designee can help you find or create a green home. A green home can be easier on the environment, your health and your wallet.

As your Tempe REALTOR® and a green designee, I am qualified to guide you through the green process, whether you are looking to buy or sell a green home. If you do not live in the area, I would be happy to refer you to another REALTOR® with a green designation that can help you find what you are looking for.

In order to attain the “green designee” designation, a REALTOR® is required to take a class offered through the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. The class teaches REALTORS® how to make educated decisions about green materials, energy-efficient technologies, green ratings, green design, green living and green incentives.

A green designee REALTOR® can also help you obtain a LEED certification for your home. A LEED certification is a third-party that sets design, construction and operational standards for high performance green buildings. A LEED certification can make your home more marketable. In addition to helping you obtain a LEED certification for your home, a green designee can help you find a LEED certified home.

A green home should have the following: a positive impact on human health and comfort; integration into a sound environment; and sustainable design, construction and systems (NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®). A green designee REALTOR® can help you secure the products and services that will make your home more sustainable.

Patrick Walsh Green Living: Green Vendors

U.S. Green Building Council

Green Resource Council of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

If you decide that you want to make your home more sustainable, then working with a green vendor can help ensure a more environmentally-friendly home for yourself and your family. As your Tempe real estate agent and a NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Green Designee, I can help you make educated decisions about green vendors, green materials, energy-efficient technology, green ratings, green design, green living and green incentives. There may be many green vendors in your city, making it difficult to determine if a vendor is truly green. The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® recommends that you consider the following before hiring a green vendor to help you with your home:

• What is the vendor’s location and proximity to the job site?
• Does the vendor have a certification or proven affiliation with a recognized green building organization?
• Is there a professional association for the trade? If so, is the vendor a member and active participant?
• What is the vendor’s knowledge and experience in working with green building issues?
• Are client references available?
• Has the vendor completed a green building project similar in size and scope? Are site visits or photographs available? Is client contact information available?
• Does the vendor recycle or reuse demolition or construction waste?
• Does the vendor have an area of green specialization?
• Does the vendor use a third-party organization to verify work?

If you do decide to work with a green vendor, I have posted the names and contact information of some local vendors on the Green Living page on my website.

Creating a green home can be an exciting and rewarding process, however is important to understand that you may need to make some compromises. You may come across a green vendor who offers bamboo flooring, but the product must first be shipped from China. Which is more important – the product that helps lessen your impact on the environment, or the fuel it will take to get the product here? Only you can answer that question.

For more information on green vendors, please visit the following Web sites:

• Patrick Walsh’s Green Living
• U.S. Green Building Council: Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED)
• National Association of Home Builders

I am pleased to announce that I have been awarded the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Green Designation certification. What does this mean for you? As your Tempe REALTOR®, it means I have the tools to help you “green” your home, making it more marketable and environmentally friendly.

Green homes should have the following: a positive impact on human health and comfort; integration into a sound environment; and sustainable design, construction and systems (NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®). Former Vice-President Al Gore’s Nobel Prize winning documentary, “An Inconvenient Truth,” helped inspire my decision to work toward a more sustainable existence as both a person and a REALTOR®. As a REALTOR®, I want to help people create environmentally-friendly homes.

As a NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Green Designee, I can help you make educated decisions about green materials, energy-efficient technology, green ratings, green design, green living and green incentives. I can also help you obtain a LEED certification for your home. LEED is a third-party certification program that sets design, construction and operational standards for high performance green buildings.

LEED is awarded by the U.S. Green Building Council. Certification is available in the following areas:

1. New construction and major renovations
2. Existing buildings
3. Commercial interiors (fit outs by tenants)
4. Core and shell (total building without fit outs)
5. Schools (K-12), retail and healthcare facilities
6. Homes
7. Neighborhood Development

Qualified properties are awarded one of the following certifications: Certified, Silver, Gold or Platinum. Properties can qualify for LEED certification by earning points in six areas:

1. Sustainable sites
2. Water efficiency
3. Energy and atmosphere
4. Materials and resources
5. Indoor environment quality
6. Innovation and design process

I can help you by making suggestions to help you “green” your home. I can also connect you with reputable green vendors who can provide the products and services that will help you make your home more sustainable.

Here are a couple of purchases you can make that will save you money and lessen your environmental impact:

1. ENERGY STAR windows – annual savings: $300
2. Solar Attic Fan – annual savings: $200
3. Low-flow Faucets – annual savings: $100

For more information on green building, I encourage you to visit the following Web sites:

Green Resource Council of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

ENERGY STAR

U.S. Green Building Council

Keywords: Realtor, Realtors, Green, Green Building, LEED, ENERGY STAR, Home, Certification, Environment, National Association of Realtors®

If you are one of the many people struggling to save your home, then loan modification may be the life raft you are looking for.

Loan modification can help you reduce your monthly mortgage payment. While not all homeowners qualify, it doesn’t hurt to look into pre-qualification.

To qualify, you must be employed and able to demonstrate that your household income has been reduced. As your Tempe realtor, I would be happy to help you determine if you are pre-qualified for assistance – at no charge to you. No upfront fees, no charge for the results. If there is a way to help you save your home, I want to help.

The pre-qualification process can be cumbersome – having a professional assist you can make the process less overwhelming. If you are pre-qualified, you are in no way obligated to continue the qualification process with me.

Loan modification isn’t always the best solution – in some cases, a short sale is the best course of action. The loan modification process is ideal for those who are unable to make their monthly mortgage payment – but can, with a little tweaking to their budget. Short sales are the better option for those who cannot pay their bills. A short sale can even be beneficial for some, taking away a massive source of financial stress. I will help you determine which avenue you should pursue.

Before you decide to hire someone to help you save your home, be sure to do your research – there are predatory companies taking advantage of those seeking assistance. Arizona Republic Real Estate reporter Catherine Reagor reported in Sunday’s paper that families across the Valley are being victimized by scam artists who are taking advantage of the uncertainty surrounding loan modification. Reagor said if the company you are dealing with guarantees that it can get your lender to reduce your monthly mortgage payment or tells you not to seek outside assistance, you may be the victim of a scam. Some victims have reported that the scammers have offered to fill out the paperwork for them, demanded payment in advance and rushed them through the process.

If you are concerned that you have been the victim of a scam, or suspect a company of wrongdoing, you can report it to one of the following organizations:

• The Arizona Attorney General’s Office
  602-542-4266
  
• Arizona Department of Financial Institutions
  602-255-4421
• Federal Trade Commision
  877-382-4357

Remember, you are not alone in this – together, we will find a solution.