Housing Markets That Will Be Strongest by 2014

By Venessa Wong, Bloomberg Businessweek
Aug 4, 2010

Top 10 Housing Markets That Will Be Strongest by 2014

1. Washington

Biggest home price increase projected in 2014: Bremerton-Silverdale metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 44.7 percent
Current median price: $245,000
Prices to reach trough in: 2010 Q1
Median family income: $69,900
Population: 240,860

The Bremerton-Silverdale area, on Puget Sound’s Kitsap Peninsula, has the highest growth forecast of all MSAs in the country, with prices expected to jump 44.7 percent by 2014, according to Fiserv. Cathy Doney, general manger for Reid Real Estate in Silverdale, says the waterfront community has benefited from government employment, which has helped sustain the job market, and attracted buyers looking to live close to Seattle at a lower cost. Washington’s second-strongest market is Tacoma, with a growth rate expected to be 33.1 percent. Prices in the Seattle area are expected to grow 25.5 percent by 2014.

Index used to calculate historical home price changes: Case-Shiller

2. Oregon

Biggest home price increase projected in 2014: Bend metro

Forecast 4-year price increase: 33.6 percent
Current median price: $144,533*
Prices to reach trough in: 2011 Q1
Median family income: $58,200
Population: 158,630

The area around Bend area, in central Oregon’s high desert by the Cascade Mountains, has the second-highest four-year growth forecast, 33.6 percent, after Bremerton-Silverdale, Wash. Bend draws home buyers and visitors with its wealth of outdoor recreational opportunities, but its prices have dropped about 40 percent since hitting a peak in late 2006. Fiserv and Moody’s Economy.com now expect a rapid recovery starting next year. Greg Broderick, a real estate broker in Bend, says prices have overcorrected and buyers are seeing good value in the market. Homes priced the low hundred-thousand-dollar range “are being snapped up at a furious pace,” he says. Still, the area must deal with a higher-than-average unemployment rate, which the BLS says was 13.4 percent in June.

Index used to calculate historical home price changes: FHFA