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Ron Milligan
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Posts Tagged ‘statistics’

Portland’s Pending Sales Increase 45% in May!!

Thursday, June 16th, 2011

Holy Heck! Do you remember how I’ve been saying that the year-to-year market stats have looked bad because we’ve been comparing this year to last year when we had the first time home buyer tax credit? Well, now we’ve got a STELLAR stat that supports this assumption.

The tax credit expired last year at the end of April. In order to get the credit, you had to have a property under contract by April 30th and you had until June 30th to get it closed.

What this means is that we’re still going to see a ton of “tax credit” sales from May and June of 2010 which will make the number of closed sales in May and June of this year pale by comparison (down 15% from May of ’10 to May of ’11). Where we start to see a difference, though, is in pending sales. When we compare pending sales from May of last year to May of this year, we see an increase of 45.1% and this give us a an un-inflated view of how our market is performing. There is a lot of real estate out there exchanging hands without the support of tax credits.

The year-to-year comparisons in average and median sale prices are down by 4.8% and 7.9 %, respectively, but we seem to be holding steady with the month-to-month numbers: down 1.8% for the average and up 0.1% for the median.

The inventory in months decreased from 7.2 months to 6.8 months, which is good. This is the amount of time that it would take to sell all the homes currently listed on the market, given the current rate of sales. Typically, 6 months of inventory is what we would call a balanced market: neither a buyer’s or seller’s market. To give you some perspective, in 2009 the inventory in months got as high as 19.2 months.

The thing to keep in mind is that the number of homes that went under contract in May of this year is more than May of last year or May of 2009. We’ve been having a pretty good Spring, all things considered.

Portland Area Market Statistics for April 2011

Tuesday, May 24th, 2011

The metro area RMLS stats showed us pretty much the same thing we saw in March except that the average and median sale prices increased by 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively. I’m always happy to see figures like that!

We’re still dealing with a rough comparison for April of 2011 to 2010 due to last year’s tax credits for new home buyers. Looking forward, though, if our market maintains its current momentum, we should see some better year-to-year comparisons toward July, by which time last year the credit had expired and the lion’s share of the first-timers had closed their deals.

Below is an excerpt from RMLS’s “Market Action” for April, 2011.

April Residential Highlights
While sales activity was down in April 2011 compared with April 2010, average and median sale prices increased compared with the previous month of March 2011.

Closed sales were down 17% in April 2011 compared to April 2010. Pending sales were down 33%, and new listings dropped 34.2%. See residential highlights table below.Comparing March 2011 with April 2011, closed sales dipped from 1,615 to 1,611 (-0.3%). Pending sales also decreased from 2,014 to 2,005 (-0.5%). New listings went up from 3,056 to 3,099 (1.4%).

At the month’s rate of sales, the 11,621 active residential listings would last about 7.2 months.

Sale Prices
Average sale price for April 2011 declined 5.2% compared to April 2010. Median sale price also fell 8.4%. See residential highlights table below.

Month to month, comparing March 2011 to April 2011, sale prices increased. Average sale price went up from $261,100 to $267,300 (2.4%) while median sale price also increased from $215,000 to $219,900 (2.3%).

Pending Home Sales Rise Again in March

Friday, April 29th, 2011

The following is an excerpt from the National Association of Realtor’s web site, realtor.org — more positive news for housing, nationally and in the Northwest. In my own business, it’s been a while since I wrote an offer for a buyer that didn’t end up being a multiple offer situation (for properties priced under $300,000). It’s Spring and we’re supposed to be busy now, but it feels like there is more activity right now than I would have hoped for, given our market 6-8 months ago.

-Ron-

Washington, DC, April 28, 2011

March saw another increase in pending home sales, with contract activity rising unevenly in six of the past nine months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 5.1 percent to 94.1 in March from a downwardly revised 89.5 in February. The index is 11.4 percent below 106.2 in March 2010; however, activity was at elevated levels in March and April of 2010 to meet the contract deadline for the home buyer tax credit.

The data reflects contracts but not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales activity has shown an uneven but notable improvement. “Since reaching a cyclical bottom last June, pending home sales have posted an overall gain of 24 percent and demonstrate the market is recovering on its own,” he said. “The index means modest near-term gains in existing-home sales are likely, which would be even stronger if tight mortgage lending criteria returned to normal, safe standards.”

The PHSI in the Northeast fell 3.2 percent to 63.4 in March and is 18.4 percent below March 2010. In the Midwest the index rose 3.0 percent in March to 83.5 but is 16.6 percent below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South jumped 10.3 percent to an index of 110.2 but are 10.5 percent below March 2010. In the West the index increased 3.1 percent to 103.7 but is 4.1 percent below a year ago.

“Based on the current uptrend with very favorable affordability conditions, rising apartment rents and ongoing job creation, existing-home sales should rise around 5 to 10 percent this year with sales growth of lower priced homes likely to outperform high-end homes. That means the price trend will reflect more homes sold in the lower price ranges,” Yun said.

“The good news is that recent home buyers are staying well within budget, leading to exceptionally low loan default rates among home buyers over the past two years,” Yun added.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

March 2011 Market Statistics for Portland Metro

Friday, April 15th, 2011

Holy Cow!  These are some pretty big numbers.  The RMLS released their market stats today, and I liked what I’m seeing.    

The March 2010 to March 2011 comparisons looked pretty rough, but expected.  Last year at this time we were headed toward the deadline of the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit.  This year, we’re just looking at nice market activity. 

I’m really impressed by the jump in the month-to-month numbers, though.  Comparing March to the previous month, we saw a 50% increase in the number of closed sales, a 26% increase in the number of pending transactions, a 3.8 month decrease in the inventory of listings and a jump in the average sale price from $244,500 to $261,100.  The median sale price, however, stayed about the same as it was in February.

Keep in mind that this is the start of our buying season and that we typically see a jump in activity at this time of year, but these numbers were more than I was expecting. 

See the excerpt from RMLS’s March 2011 “Market Action” below.

      -Ron-

March Residential Highlights

While sales activity was down in March 2011 compared with March 2010, activity increased compared to the previous month of February 2011. Additionally, inventory in the Portland metro region was 0.7 months lower than March 2010, reaching the lowest inventory level for the area since May 2010.

 

Closed sales were down 10.2% in March 2011 compared to March 2010. Pending sales were down 16.2%, and new listings dropped 38.7%.

 

Comparing February 2011 with March 2011, closed sales jumped from 1,074 to 1,615 (50.4%). Pending sales also increased from 1,592 to 2,014 (26.5%). New listings grew from 2,883 to 3,056 (6%).

At the month’s rate of sales, the 11,458 active residential listings would last about 7.1 months.

 

Sale Prices

Average sale price for March 2011 declined 6.8% compared to March 2010. Median sale price also fell 10%. 

 

Month to month, comparing February 2011 to March 2011, sale prices increased. Average sale price went up from $244,500 to $261,100 (6.8%) while median sale price also increased from $213,700 to $215,000 (0.6%).

Portland Real Estate Market Statistics for December 2010

Friday, January 14th, 2011

Nice news!  Read the highlights below from RMLS’s monthly report on the metro area’s real estate market statistics. 

What caught my eye was that December showed a big jump in closed sales from the month before (14.3%) and an increase number of pending sales as well (6%).  The inventory in months fell a significant amount – down 2.3 months.

The average and median sale prices vs. the previous month were a mixed bag: up 2.2% and down 1.3% respectively. 

This is all really good news in a month where Realtors are supposed to be sitting at home reading movie magazines and eating bon-bons.  I may have to buy a newspaper tomorrow to see how the Oregonian manages to rain on this parade. 

      -Ron-

 

From RMLS’s December 2010 “Market Action”

 

“December Residential Highlights

Looking at the Portland Metro area market in 2010, December continued the trend of decreased activity toward the end of the year. However, closed sales underwent an uptick in December, reaching the highest monthly level since June.

Inventory also saw its lowest level since June. Closed sales were down 2.9% compared to December 2009, but pending sales were up 6%. New listings dropped 8.5%.

Comparing the previous month of November 2010 with December 2010 shows closed sales jumped from 1,279 to 1,462 (14.3%). However, pending sales fell from 1,426 to 1,210 (-15.2%), and new listings dropped from 2,437 to 1,925 (-22.2%).

At the month’s rate of sales, the 11,611 active residential listings would last about 7.9 months, a 2.3-month drop since November.

2010 Summary

When comparing activity in 2010 with that of 2009, closed sales dipped 0.2%. Pending sales were 2.1% lower, but new listings were up 3.0%. Total sales volume for 2010 was $5.3 billion, down from $5.5 billion in 2009.

Sale Prices

The average sale price for December 2010 declined 5.2% compared to December 2009. The median sale price also fell 5%. Month to month, comparing November 2010 to December 2010, the average sale price went up from $271,900 to $278,000 (2.2%) while the median sale price dropped from $233,000 to $230,000 (-1.3%).

For 2010, average sale price dropped 2.7% compared to 2009, and median sale prices fell 2.9%.”

Portland Real Estate Market Statistics for November 2010

Tuesday, December 28th, 2010

 

RMLS released their market statistics from November, and again I’m pleased by what I’m seeing.  What I’ve been seeing has been reflected in my and some of my colleagues business for this time of year.  November and December are typically supposed to be down months for Realtors, and these past couple of months have been anything but that. 

The number of closed sales was down a considerable amount from November of 2009.  November 30th was the initial deadline for the first time home buyer tax credit – so, no surprise there.  The number of pending sales was up by 7.4% from last year though, which is very good in my book and indicates continued and increasing activity. 

The average and median sale prices were down from the previous month by $4900 and $500 respectively.  The inventory in months decreased from 10.7 to 10.2 months – not a big change but a positive one, none the less. 

Read below for the statistical highlights from RMLS’s publication, “Market Action,” and call me if you would like a market analysis of your neighborhood and home.  I’m happy to oblige. 

      -Ron-

November Residential Highlights

 

The Portland Metro area market continued to show decreases in activity in November. However, while closed sales were the lowest since February of this year, they decreased by only 1% from the previous month. Pending sales were also higher than November of the past two years.

Closed sales were down 28.7% compared to November 2009, but pending sales were up 7.4%. New listings dipped down 1%.

Comparing the previous month of October 2010 with November 2010 shows closed sales decreased from 1,292 to 1,279 (-1%). Additionally, pending sales fell from 1,632 to 1,426 (-12.6%), and new listings dropped from 3,119 to 2,437 (-20.7%).

At the month’s rate of sales, the 13,103 active residential listings would last approximately 10.2 months. Inventory in November is the lowest it has been since June of this year.

Year-to-Date

When comparing January- November 2010 with the same period in 2009, closed sales increased 0.2%. Pending sales were 2.6% lower, but new listings were up 3.7%.

Sale Prices

The average sale price for November 2010 declined 0.5% compared to November 2009. The median sale price also fell 2.5%. On a month-to-month basis, comparing October 2010 to November 2010, the average sale price went down from $276,800 to $271,900 (-1.8%) and the median sale price also dropped from $233,500 to $233,000 (-0.2%). This marks the third straight month average sale prices have fallen.

Some Positive Real Estate Market News

Thursday, December 2nd, 2010

On the tail of that crumby article in the Oregonian yesterday (which looks to have been partially based on Case-Shiller market stats from September – way to be on top of it!), the Wall Street Journal’s MarketWatch.com reported that a gauge of pending home sales was up 10.4% in October.  Read more here: Pending U.S. home sales jump 10.4% in October.

This information probably doesn’t indicate that we’ll see a month-to-month increase in pending sales for our market.  I think that we’ll see a modest gain or we’ll at least hold the line in our stats for pending and closed sales.  However, this would be really positive news during a month when most Realtors go into holiday mode because market activity has fallen off.  We’re not supposed to be seeing sustained activity (or even gains!) at this time of year. 

      -Ron-

Portland Real Estate Market Statistics for October

Thursday, November 18th, 2010

No big surprises in the market stats for October.  Last month we were expecting to see a decline in the number of closed sales from September and that’s what we saw (7.7%).  We were also expecting to see an increase in the number of pending sales and we saw that as well (3%). 

Comparing October 2009 to 2010, (like last month) our numbers look pretty dismal but this isn’t a very good read on the state of the market.  In October of 2009, we were looking forward to the expiration of the (second) First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit and seeing a flurry of activity from buyers.  We’ll be seeing similar comparisons next Spring when we approach the anniversary of the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit extension. 

Since the expiration of the third credit, our inventory of months jumped up but has remained somewhere between 10.5 and 11 months.  No big changes here. 

Our running (month-to-month) average and median sale prices decreased by 1.1% and 2.7%, respectively.  These numbers bounce around from month to month.  At the end of the year we’ll see a better comparison (12 months vs. the previous 12 months), which doesn’t have the same vulnerability to seasonal bouncing. 

Looking Forward to Next Month

Next month I think that we’ll see a slight increase in the number of closed sales vs.  October.  I’m feeling a fair amount of activity on the market right now, but I’m not sure that this will be enough to counteract the typical holiday lull we see this time of year.  Even if we do see a decline in the number of pending and closed transactions, I think that it’ll be a lot better than what we were expecting from November and December 6 months ago.  For the first time in a number of years, I’m starting to feel positive about the real estate market.  More on that in another post. 

      -Ron-

From RMLS “Market Action” October 2010

October Residential Highlights

Comparing October 2010 to October 2009, closed sales decreased by 35.7%. Pending sales  and new listings also fell by 21.5% and 9.4%, respectively. The number of closed sales and new listings are the lowest they have been in October in a comparison of the past three years.

A comparison of October 2010 with the previous month, September 2010, shows closed sales

decreased by 7.7% (1,292 v. 1,399). Additionally, pending sales grew by 3% (1,632 v. 1,584), and new listings fell by 12.1% (3,119 v. 3,549). At the month’s rate of sales, the

13,805 active residential listings would last approximately 10.7 months. Inventory in October 2010 rose by 4.2 months compared to October 2009 (6.5 months).

Sale Prices

The average sale price for October 2010 declined 2.4% compared to October 2009. The median sale price also fell 4.7%. On a month-to-month basis, compar ing October 2010 to

September 2010, the average sale price went down 1.1% ($276,800 v. $279,900) and the median sale price also dropped 2.7% ($233,500 v. $240,000).

Year-to-Date

When comparing January-October 2010 with the same period in 2009, closed sales increased 3.7%. Pending sales were 3.4% lower, but new listings were up 4%.

Portland Real Estate Market Statistics for September

Wednesday, October 20th, 2010

Our RMLS (Regional Multiple Listing Service) released their “Market Action” report for August (see the excerpt below).  This report contains the full gambit of statistical highlights for Portland’s real estate market for a given month, and these are the stats that the Oregonian and other news organizations base their local monthly market reports on.

By themselves, the numbers look pretty dismal.  I try to ignore the 2009 to 2010 comparisons as last year we were dealing with government stimulated activity due to the first time home buyer tax credit. 

The month-to-month comparisons don’t look so bad, though.  When looking at the stats, keep in mind that we always see a decrease in activity toward the end of August – beginning of September as a lot of buyers and sellers are distracted with getting kids back to school.  We typically get a bump in business from the latter half of September through October – prior to the market going into hibernation for the winter. 

Looking Forward to Next Month

Next month I’m expecting to see a decrease in the number of closed sales (in October), but I think that we’ll see an increase in the month-to-month stats for pending sales, which will translate into a nice number of closings in November.  No one can really predict what we’ll see when it comes to the average sale price.  That number seems to bounce around from month to month.  On the whole, our current average sale price is about where it was during the summer of 2005. 

Over the past three weeks, I’ve been feeling an increase in activity in my own business and seeing the same in my colleague’s.  I’ve also been seeing a number of listings leave the “for sale” market and enter the “for rent” market.  This should take some pressure off the high inventory of houses.  Eventually those houses will be back on the market but only when things turn around again. 

Great Opportunities

There are a fair number of foreclosures out there and some great deals to be had – especially when you take into consideration the really low interest rates we have right now.  Our market is working through a whole mess of bad loans and foreclosures but eventually they’ll be gone.  In the mean time, keep in mind that smart real estate is not just about the price of the house you buy.  It’s also about the cost of the money you use to purchase that house.  Interest rates make a huge difference in your mortgage payments and they’re currently at near record lows!

 

 From RMLS “Market Action” Septermber 2010

“September Residential Highlights

Comparing September 2010 to September 2009, closed sales decreased by 22.3%. Pending sales and new listings also fell by 30.7% and 1.4%, respectively. See residential highlights table below.

A comparison of September 2010 with the previous month, August 2010, shows closed sales increased by 1.3% (1,399 v. 1,381). However, pending sales dropped by 6.2% (1,584 v. 1,688), and new listings fell by 7.3% (3,549 v. 3,829).

At the month’s rate of sales, the 14,714 active residential listings would last approximately 10.5 months.

Sale Prices

The average sale price for September 2010 declined 3.5% compared to September 2009. The

median sale price also fell 0.6%.

On a month-to-month basis, comparing September 2010 to August 2010, the average sale

price went down 6.5% ($279,900 v. $299,300) and the median sale price also dropped 4% ($240,000 v. $250,000).

Third Quarter Report

In a comparison of the third quarter of 2010 to the same quarter of 2009, closed sales dropped 24.7% (4,340 v. 5,762) and pending sales also fell 26.5% (4,725 v. 6,428). However, new listings increased by 1.2% (11,582 v. 11,448).”

Portland’s Real Estate Market Statistics for August 2010

Thursday, September 16th, 2010

 

Below is Portland’s Regional Multiple Listing Service’s (RMLS) “Market Action”, their monthly report on real estate statistics.   

There are a few pretty ugly statistics in the report, specifically when comparing the number of pending and closed transactions from August 2009 to August 2010.  While looking at these stats, keep in mind that in 2009 we were anticipating the (first) expiration of the first time home buyer tax credit.  Transactions needed to close by the end of November in order for the home buyer to receive the credit.  That is, buyers needed to have a property under contract by the end of September in order to be certain to close by the deadline.  For short sales, they needed to be under contract much earlier.  Obviously, without that incentive, our current numbers are going to be down.

A Little Encouragement

When you compare August of this year to the previous month, the numbers aren’t so bad.  The median and average sale prices are both up.  Most importantly (in my book), is that the number of pending transactions is up.  Hopefully, that’ll lead to more closed transactions this month.

There are a lot of distressed properties out there.   On the lower end of the price range, I’ve been showing a lot of houses (many of them foreclosures) that I think would have a hard time qualifying for financing without significant repairs.  That makes them a tough sell to buyers looking in that price range.  On the other hand, I listed a house in the Beaumont neighborhood that was beautifully maintained and priced right.  In that situation, we had close to 100 people come through the open house and had an offer within 3 days.  If you need to sell, it can be done! 

Interest rates are currently so low that they’re almost comical.  If you’ve got good credit, you might be able to qualify for an FHA 30 year fixed with a interest rate of 4.25% or a 15 year fixed for 3.5%.  I keep telling my buyers that purchasing property is not just about the price of the property.  It’s also about the cost of the money you use to purchase your real estate.  Rates may not get any better than this!

     -Ron-

“August Residential Highlights

 A comparison of sales activity in the Portland metro area in August 2010 with August 2009, shows that closed sales decreased 25%. Pending sales also dropped 21.7%, while new listings rose 1.3%. See residential highlights table below. On a month-to-month basis, when comparing August 2010 to July 2010, closed sales fell 2.2% (1,381 v. 1,412), while pending sales grew 3.6% (1,688 v. 1,629). New listings also fell 5% (3,829 v. 4,029).  At the month’s rate of sales, the 15,200 active residential listings would last approximately 11 months.

 

Sale Prices

The average sale price for August 2010 increased 1% compared to August 2009, while the median sale price stayed the same.

 When comparing August 2010 to the month prior, July 2010, the average sale price increased 0.8% ($299,300 v. $297,000) and the median sale price also went up 1.6% ($250,000 v. $246,000).

 

Year-to-Date

Increases are seen when comparing January-August 2010 with the same period in 2009.

Closed sales increased 14.7%. Pending sales grew 4% and new listings grew 6%.”

 

 

Market Recap

  • Avg. Sales Price: $289,800

  • Avg. Days on Market: 121

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