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Ron Milligan
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    CDPE - Certified Distressed Property Expert

Direct: (503) 484-3166

Office: 503-282-4000



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Posts Tagged ‘market’

Portland’s Real Estate Market Statistics for July 2010

Friday, August 13th, 2010

Portland’s RMLS released our July market statistics today and there was a fair amount of not-so-great news and a couple of positive points.  At the bottom of this post are highlights taken from RMLS’s Market Action. 

In my book, the bad news is that the number of closed sales is down from June to July.  However, this shouldn’t be a big surprise to anyone in the real estate business due to the expiration of the first time home buyer tax credit.  The fact that pending sales remained stable from June to July is a bit of a bright spot in my book. 

In August we usually see a lull in real estate activity because a lot of people (and especially Realtors) are on vacation.  In addition to that, many buyers are looking to the beginning of September and the start of school rather than looking at houses.  There is typically a boost in business in September to October.  Then again, there isn’t a whole lot that is “typical” about our market these days.  So, it’ll be interesting to see what happens. 

Another bright spot is that the average and median sale prices increased from June to July by 2.5% in both cases.  I wouldn’t get super exited about this yet, though.  Part of the increase could be attributed to the expiration of the first timer tax credit.  I think that the tax credit stimulated the lower end of the real estate market which caused a lot more properties priced under $250,000 to close, thus dragging down the average.  I’ll be curious to see what happens with sales prices over the next couple three months.  I’m not being pessimistic – just cautious. 

I still have quite a number of buyers who are getting ready to pull the trigger.  The things that have these people eyeing the market are some super sweet deals on real estate and interest rates that are ridiculously low.  I spoke with a banker yesterday who said he could get an interest rate below 4% on a 15 year fixed loan. 

Give me a call if you have any questions about these stats or about what’s going on in your neck of the woods. 

       -Ron-

From RMLS’s Market Action:

“July Residential Highlights

When comparing sales activity in the Portland metro area in July 2010 to the same time last  year, July 2009, closed sales declined 29%. Pending sales also decreased 24.9% and new listings rose 3.1%.

On a month-to-month basis, when comparing July 2010 to June 2010, closed sales fell 29.8% (1,412 v. 2,012), while pending sales grew 0.7% (1,629 v. 1,618). New listings also fell 0.5% (4,029 v. 4,049).

At the month’s rate of sales, the 15,271 active residential listings would last approximately 10.8 months.

Sale Prices

The average sale price for July 2010 increased 2.9% compared to July 2009, while the median sale price went down 1.6%. See residential highlights table below.

When comparing July 2010 to the month prior, June 2010, the average sale price increased 2.5% ($297,000 v. $289,000) and the median sale price also went up 2.5% ($246,000 v. $240,000).

Year-to-Date

Increases are seen when comparing January-July 2010 with the same period in 2009. Closed

sales were up by 22.5%. Pending sales also went up 9.1% and new listings grew 6.8%.”

Portland Real Estate Housing Predictions

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010

I went to a class at Lawyers Title last month that was put on by the Home Builders Association.  The class was about what they think we should expect to see in Portland’s market over the next few years and was reporting on how the 5 biggest builders in the Metro area were positioning themselves for what they see on the horizon.

The predictions they were making for Portland pretty much ran in line with what this article (below) from Smart Money (7/26/10).  Read on.  I think that you’ll find it pretty interesting. 

     -Ron-

“A Housing Shortage on the Horizon?

If you take a step back from the current doom and gloom of foreclosures and declining sales and focus on the low construction levels over the past few years, some economists say a housing shortage might be in the offing.

A 2009 report by Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics professor William Wheaton says that despite the glut of existing homes, with current depressed levels of construction, there might be “excess demand” for newly constructed homes. We’re only adding about 600,000 new housing units a year now, and the long-term growth in new households is 1.3 million to 1.4 million per year, says Ross DeVol, executive director of economic research at the Milken Institute. The household formation rate has fallen off somewhat because of the recession. But that decline is misleading because college graduates have chosen to live at home with their parents while they find their financial footing, and people defer getting married for a year or two. But long term, that household growth says that “if we build substantially less than that amount, which we’re doing now, in four, five or six years, if we don’t ramp up housing starts, we could see a shortage,” DeVol says.

One risk is that so many home builders leave the field during the current downturn that there could be “capacity constraints” in the long term as the U.S. population continues to grow, says John Vogel, professor of real estate at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth. There won’t be constraints in overbuilt places like Las Vegas, Phoenix, Riverside, Calif., or Miami and Ft. Lauderdale. But if the pace of home construction doesn’t pick up, “we are going to begin to see some tightness in some areas of the country that didn’t have the boom and bust occur,” DeVol says.

The regions most likely to be undersupplied by mid-2012 are those where supply and demand are now in balance, says Celia Chen, senior director of housing economics at Moody’s. Chen includes states like Washington, Oregon, New Mexico and Utah in this group. ”

(www.smartmoney.com)
SmartMoney (7/26/10) by Lisa Scherzer

7 Signs that Portland’s Market Has Hit Bottom – Part 2

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

 

Here is the promised continuation of last week’s article.  Read on and enjoy. 

4)  Investors and other real estate or financial professionals (everyone from your neighbor who owns income property to Suze Orman types) will start talking again about the possibility of making money in real estate. 

5)  Keep your eye on the Fed.  If they stop fooling around with interest rates (keeping them low or trying to artificially keep them at a certain level) or they start to increase interest rates, you might take it as a sign that some important US markets have hit bottom.  At last check, the expectation is that they won’t raise interest rates (which influences the rates but doesn’t set the market rate) until the first quarter of 2011. 

6)  It might sound obvious, but I thought I would mention it all the same.  Prices will stop falling.  They may not start going up right away, but watch for them to level out.

7)  Pay attention to TV, radio and newspaper ads for what is happening on the home finance front.  I would take it as a sign that things are looking pretty rosy once obtaining financing (and mortgage insurance) becomes easier.  Obtaining financing is a lot easier than a year ago, but commercial banks are still being pretty careful (especially when it comes to the condo market).  Once they banks like things are turning around, they’ll start advertising more aggressively.  I think that’s something to keep a look out for. 

This is hardly comprehensive and not meant as the gospel, but it should help you with trying to time the bottom of the market.  Of course, staying in touch with a real estate professional (hopefully, me) is the best way to keep abreast of the market.

7 Signs Portland’s Market Has Hit Bottom – Part 1

Thursday, June 24th, 2010

 

I know that a lot of people in Portland are trying to time the bottom of the real estate market.  That is, they’re waiting for things to hit bottom before they buy and they’re doing this despite the great deals on real estate and fantastic interest rates.  Let me say that no one has a crystal ball and that trying to time the real estate market perfectly is about as impossible as trying to time the stock market accurately.  Greater trends can be seen and sometimes anticipated, but not 100% of the time. 

One problem with waiting for the bottom to hit is that we are only be able to point to it with confidence and say “there it is” two or three months after it’s come and gone.  At that point, buyers will be competing with one another for the property they want.

That being said, here are some signs that the bottom might be near:

 1)  The inventory of listings goes down and sales volumes go up.  One way that our Regional Multiple Listing Service (RMLS) measures listing inventory is in months: 3 months, 6.5 months, 12.2 months.  These figures represent the amount of time it would take to sell off every house, condo and townhome listed on the market today at the present rate of sales (provided that no new listings hit the market).  Most analysts believe that a 6 month inventory is the middle point.  Less than 6 months is a competitive market and more than 6 months is a struggling market.  Our current inventory is around 7 months.   

Keep an eye on the inventory yourself.  RMLS stats only come out 2 weeks after the month is over – which can be a 6 week lag.  Keep your eye on “for sale” signs in your neighborhood or condo complex.  Did your neighbor’s listing finally sell after 9 months on the market?  I would caution you to expect starts and stops as far as the inventory goes.  A lot of sellers took their property off the market and rented them out in anticipation of a better market.  As the market starts to look better, we might see a big influx of properties for sale. 

2)  The number of phone calls and general interest (from other Realtors and their clients) in listings starts to increase.  You’ll probably need a Realtor to gauge this.  That’s where I come in handy.  I know how many showings and calls I should get on my listings, and when that number starts to move out of the ordinary count, I raise my left eyebrow and start talking to my colleagues about what they have going on.  Keep in mind that certain segments of the market will take off before others.  Your neighborhood or condo complex might be sleepy while another one is selling out. 

3)  Newspapers and TV news stations start fostering public interest in the possibility that the market is hitting bottom.  Watch for articles where reporters ask experts to speculate on whether or not this is the bottom.  Look for tag lines that ask questions like, “Is the Real Estate Market Hitting Bottom?”  The more of this you see, the more likely it could be. 

Check in later for Part 2 of this article.  It’ll be worth your time.

Market Recap

  • Avg. Sales Price: $289,800

  • Avg. Days on Market: 121

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