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Ron Milligan
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    CDPE - Certified Distressed Property Expert

Direct: (503) 484-3166

Office: 503-282-4000



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Portland, OR
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Posts Tagged ‘2011’

Portland’s Pending Sales Increase 45% in May!!

Thursday, June 16th, 2011

Holy Heck! Do you remember how I’ve been saying that the year-to-year market stats have looked bad because we’ve been comparing this year to last year when we had the first time home buyer tax credit? Well, now we’ve got a STELLAR stat that supports this assumption.

The tax credit expired last year at the end of April. In order to get the credit, you had to have a property under contract by April 30th and you had until June 30th to get it closed.

What this means is that we’re still going to see a ton of “tax credit” sales from May and June of 2010 which will make the number of closed sales in May and June of this year pale by comparison (down 15% from May of ’10 to May of ’11). Where we start to see a difference, though, is in pending sales. When we compare pending sales from May of last year to May of this year, we see an increase of 45.1% and this give us a an un-inflated view of how our market is performing. There is a lot of real estate out there exchanging hands without the support of tax credits.

The year-to-year comparisons in average and median sale prices are down by 4.8% and 7.9 %, respectively, but we seem to be holding steady with the month-to-month numbers: down 1.8% for the average and up 0.1% for the median.

The inventory in months decreased from 7.2 months to 6.8 months, which is good. This is the amount of time that it would take to sell all the homes currently listed on the market, given the current rate of sales. Typically, 6 months of inventory is what we would call a balanced market: neither a buyer’s or seller’s market. To give you some perspective, in 2009 the inventory in months got as high as 19.2 months.

The thing to keep in mind is that the number of homes that went under contract in May of this year is more than May of last year or May of 2009. We’ve been having a pretty good Spring, all things considered.

Pending Home Sales Rise Again in March

Friday, April 29th, 2011

The following is an excerpt from the National Association of Realtor’s web site, realtor.org — more positive news for housing, nationally and in the Northwest. In my own business, it’s been a while since I wrote an offer for a buyer that didn’t end up being a multiple offer situation (for properties priced under $300,000). It’s Spring and we’re supposed to be busy now, but it feels like there is more activity right now than I would have hoped for, given our market 6-8 months ago.

-Ron-

Washington, DC, April 28, 2011

March saw another increase in pending home sales, with contract activity rising unevenly in six of the past nine months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 5.1 percent to 94.1 in March from a downwardly revised 89.5 in February. The index is 11.4 percent below 106.2 in March 2010; however, activity was at elevated levels in March and April of 2010 to meet the contract deadline for the home buyer tax credit.

The data reflects contracts but not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales activity has shown an uneven but notable improvement. “Since reaching a cyclical bottom last June, pending home sales have posted an overall gain of 24 percent and demonstrate the market is recovering on its own,” he said. “The index means modest near-term gains in existing-home sales are likely, which would be even stronger if tight mortgage lending criteria returned to normal, safe standards.”

The PHSI in the Northeast fell 3.2 percent to 63.4 in March and is 18.4 percent below March 2010. In the Midwest the index rose 3.0 percent in March to 83.5 but is 16.6 percent below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South jumped 10.3 percent to an index of 110.2 but are 10.5 percent below March 2010. In the West the index increased 3.1 percent to 103.7 but is 4.1 percent below a year ago.

“Based on the current uptrend with very favorable affordability conditions, rising apartment rents and ongoing job creation, existing-home sales should rise around 5 to 10 percent this year with sales growth of lower priced homes likely to outperform high-end homes. That means the price trend will reflect more homes sold in the lower price ranges,” Yun said.

“The good news is that recent home buyers are staying well within budget, leading to exceptionally low loan default rates among home buyers over the past two years,” Yun added.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

Market Recap

  • Avg. Sales Price: $289,800

  • Avg. Days on Market: 121

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