Holy Heck! Do you remember how I’ve been saying that the year-to-year market stats have looked bad because we’ve been comparing this year to last year when we had the first time home buyer tax credit? Well, now we’ve got a STELLAR stat that supports this assumption.

The tax credit expired last year at the end of April. In order to get the credit, you had to have a property under contract by April 30th and you had until June 30th to get it closed.

What this means is that we’re still going to see a ton of “tax credit” sales from May and June of 2010 which will make the number of closed sales in May and June of this year pale by comparison (down 15% from May of ’10 to May of ’11). Where we start to see a difference, though, is in pending sales. When we compare pending sales from May of last year to May of this year, we see an increase of 45.1% and this give us a an un-inflated view of how our market is performing. There is a lot of real estate out there exchanging hands without the support of tax credits.

The year-to-year comparisons in average and median sale prices are down by 4.8% and 7.9 %, respectively, but we seem to be holding steady with the month-to-month numbers: down 1.8% for the average and up 0.1% for the median.

The inventory in months decreased from 7.2 months to 6.8 months, which is good. This is the amount of time that it would take to sell all the homes currently listed on the market, given the current rate of sales. Typically, 6 months of inventory is what we would call a balanced market: neither a buyer’s or seller’s market. To give you some perspective, in 2009 the inventory in months got as high as 19.2 months.

The thing to keep in mind is that the number of homes that went under contract in May of this year is more than May of last year or May of 2009. We’ve been having a pretty good Spring, all things considered.

The metro area RMLS stats showed us pretty much the same thing we saw in March except that the average and median sale prices increased by 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively. I’m always happy to see figures like that!

We’re still dealing with a rough comparison for April of 2011 to 2010 due to last year’s tax credits for new home buyers. Looking forward, though, if our market maintains its current momentum, we should see some better year-to-year comparisons toward July, by which time last year the credit had expired and the lion’s share of the first-timers had closed their deals.

Below is an excerpt from RMLS’s “Market Action” for April, 2011.

April Residential Highlights
While sales activity was down in April 2011 compared with April 2010, average and median sale prices increased compared with the previous month of March 2011.

Month to month, comparing March 2011 to April 2011, sale prices increased. Average sale price went up from $261,100 to $267,300 (2.4%) while median sale price also increased from $215,000 to $219,900 (2.3%).

Attractive Building, Charming Condo, Superb Location and Parking Included! This great condo has wood floors and box beam ceilings in the living room (with 9′ ceilings throughout). One thing I love about this condo is that it has lots of large windows and southern exposure, allowing for maximum sunlight. It also has a nicely remodeled kitchen with stainless steel appliances and cherry cabinets.

No need to worry about where to park your car because this condominium comes with off-street parking as well as an additional storage unit in the basement.

One of the best things about this great home is its location. Situated about a 1/2 block from NW 21st AVE and less than 2 blocks from 23rd AVE, this property is literally a few blocks from your choice of restaurants, lounges, cafes, shops, the street car, Cinema 21 & Trader Joes.

Call Ron to schedule a showing or stop by this Sunday (5/8/11) between 1:00 and 3:00 PM for an OPEN HOUSE.

More information can be found in the “Featured Listings” section of my web site: www.PortlandsCondoPro.com

The Asking Price is Only $339,000!

The following is an excerpt from the National Association of Realtor’s web site, realtor.org — more positive news for housing, nationally and in the Northwest. In my own business, it’s been a while since I wrote an offer for a buyer that didn’t end up being a multiple offer situation (for properties priced under $300,000). It’s Spring and we’re supposed to be busy now, but it feels like there is more activity right now than I would have hoped for, given our market 6-8 months ago.

-Ron-

Washington, DC, April 28, 2011

March saw another increase in pending home sales, with contract activity rising unevenly in six of the past nine months, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 5.1 percent to 94.1 in March from a downwardly revised 89.5 in February. The index is 11.4 percent below 106.2 in March 2010; however, activity was at elevated levels in March and April of 2010 to meet the contract deadline for the home buyer tax credit.

The data reflects contracts but not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said home sales activity has shown an uneven but notable improvement. “Since reaching a cyclical bottom last June, pending home sales have posted an overall gain of 24 percent and demonstrate the market is recovering on its own,” he said. “The index means modest near-term gains in existing-home sales are likely, which would be even stronger if tight mortgage lending criteria returned to normal, safe standards.”

The PHSI in the Northeast fell 3.2 percent to 63.4 in March and is 18.4 percent below March 2010. In the Midwest the index rose 3.0 percent in March to 83.5 but is 16.6 percent below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South jumped 10.3 percent to an index of 110.2 but are 10.5 percent below March 2010. In the West the index increased 3.1 percent to 103.7 but is 4.1 percent below a year ago.

“Based on the current uptrend with very favorable affordability conditions, rising apartment rents and ongoing job creation, existing-home sales should rise around 5 to 10 percent this year with sales growth of lower priced homes likely to outperform high-end homes. That means the price trend will reflect more homes sold in the lower price ranges,” Yun said.

“The good news is that recent home buyers are staying well within budget, leading to exceptionally low loan default rates among home buyers over the past two years,” Yun added.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

# # #

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

Check out this great property.  It’s located right next to the Mountain Park neighborhood of Lake Oswego in a very green setting.  The home sits on .8 acres and has fantastic English landscaping that provide for tons of privace and a feeling that you’re in the country rather than in the city.  It the location of this home makes getting to downtown a snap (15 minute drive) and you can get to New Seasons in 5 minutes flat.  Check out the video I made for the listing and stop by the OPEN HOUSE this Sunday (5/1) from 1-3.  Click here to find out more about this great house:  www.3542swvestast.com

3542 SW Vesta ST (Portland)
2800 sqft
4 Bedrooms
2 Bathrooms (plus another bathroom-plumbed and wired but not yet finished). 
Offered at $480,000.

Please call to set up a showing!

Check out the quote below that I pulled from a National Assocaition of Realtors newsletter.  NAR can be a little optimistic at times, but the increase in activity over the past 8 months has been felt locally and shown nationally. 

      -Ron-

“Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expects the improving sales pattern to continue. “Existing-home sales have risen in six of the past eight months, so we’re clearly on a recovery path,” he said. “With rising jobs and excellent affordability conditions, we project moderate improvements into 2012, but not every month will show a gain – primarily because some buyers are finding it too difficult to obtain a mortgage. For those fortunate enough to qualify for financing, monthly mortgage payments as a percent of income have been at record lows.”

Holy Cow!  These are some pretty big numbers.  The RMLS released their market stats today, and I liked what I’m seeing.    

The March 2010 to March 2011 comparisons looked pretty rough, but expected.  Last year at this time we were headed toward the deadline of the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit.  This year, we’re just looking at nice market activity. 

I’m really impressed by the jump in the month-to-month numbers, though.  Comparing March to the previous month, we saw a 50% increase in the number of closed sales, a 26% increase in the number of pending transactions, a 3.8 month decrease in the inventory of listings and a jump in the average sale price from $244,500 to $261,100.  The median sale price, however, stayed about the same as it was in February.

Keep in mind that this is the start of our buying season and that we typically see a jump in activity at this time of year, but these numbers were more than I was expecting. 

See the excerpt from RMLS’s March 2011 “Market Action” below.

      -Ron-

March Residential Highlights

While sales activity was down in March 2011 compared with March 2010, activity increased compared to the previous month of February 2011. Additionally, inventory in the Portland metro region was 0.7 months lower than March 2010, reaching the lowest inventory level for the area since May 2010.

Closed sales were down 10.2% in March 2011 compared to March 2010. Pending sales were down 16.2%, and new listings dropped 38.7%.

Comparing February 2011 with March 2011, closed sales jumped from 1,074 to 1,615 (50.4%). Pending sales also increased from 1,592 to 2,014 (26.5%). New listings grew from 2,883 to 3,056 (6%).

At the month’s rate of sales, the 11,458 active residential listings would last about 7.1 months.

Sale Prices

Average sale price for March 2011 declined 6.8% compared to March 2010. Median sale price also fell 10%. 

Month to month, comparing February 2011 to March 2011, sale prices increased. Average sale price went up from $244,500 to $261,100 (6.8%) while median sale price also increased from $213,700 to $215,000 (0.6%).

The little neighborhood Safeway store on SE Hawthorne at 28^th Avenue will be closing down on April 18^th.  The store shelves are starting to run a bit empty, and I expect that there won’t be much left to buy toward the end of the week. 

The plan for the store is to do a tear down of the existing structure and put up a new building.  I understand that they’re going to be building the new store directly next to the Hawthorne Street sidewalk so that the new structure will occupy the spot where the parking lot is currently located.  The plan is to excavate out the space under the where the store will stand to create underground parking. 

I’ve been doing my best to pin someone down on timelines, but no one seems to be very certain of when the new construction will be done.  It sounds like a lot of the equation is weather dependant and that we’re looking at 10 to 12 months. 

In the mean time, there is the Fred Mayer at SE Hawthorne and Cesar E Chavez (39^th), the Zupan’s at SE Belmont and 33^rd, and two New Seasons (Division & 20^th plus  Hawthorne & 42^nd) to choose from.

      -Ron-

I’m happy to report that my listing at 255 SW Harrison closed on 3/30/2011.  My seller is happily putting down roots in San Diego and enjoying his new promotion. 

The seller of this great 2 bedroom condo in Goose Hollow just dropped the asking price for his condo to $189,900.   Click here for more information and pictures of this super convenient home. 

It’s located one block from the Goose Hollow MAX station, has secured parking and an additional storage unit with easy access (on the same floor as the condo).  Don’t pass this one up! 

On another note, the market is heating up for Spring.  This last week I closed two short sale listings.  This listing on N Alberta at Interstate Avenue closed on Wednesday (3/15) for $115,000 and my colleague, Alexis Wolf, and I got the bank to agree to a $75,000 sale price for a little condo on NW Lovejoy at 16th (under 400 sqft).