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Michael Heraty
Managing Broker
    Years of Experience: e-Pro Certification

    ABR: Accredited Buyer's Representative
    CRS: Certified Residential Specialist
    MRE: Master of Real Estate
    GRI: Graduate REALTORĀ® Institute

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Why I Like Bottom Feeders in Pagosa Springs: Pagosa Source Real Estate Advisors

Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

Bottom Feeder: An opportunist who profits from the misfortunes of others.

Recently one of our agents had a brief exchange with a real estate professional from another office here in Pagosa Springs. The other agent was lamenting the fact that the only interest her office was experiencing was from “Bottom Feeders”. In real estate, a “Bottom Feeder” is a prospective real estate buyer that is only interested in buying when prices are at the bottom of the cycle, or when they can acquire a good property at a price far below perceived value. Some agents and sellers have a disdain for this type of buyer, but I don’t and I will explain why.

During a typical real estate cycle, the market accelerates and prices appreciate rapidly. Then at some point events bring about a drop in demand, (a rise in interest rates, a large increase in unemployment, a huge drop in the stock market, or a meltdown of the mortgage markets) and the volume of transactions and the level of prices begin to decline. The curve downward steepens as demand further declines and supply increases, when more holders of real estate decide to sell. Generally, the first to sell are the experienced speculators, later the novice real estate speculators join in, and finally the more passive investors act out of fear and dump their properties. Eventually, over-extended borrowers find themselves unable to refinance, and lenders begin foreclosing and putting their properties on the market. For some areas severely impacted by foreclosed properties, the markets are driven by the low prices offered on “bank-owned” or “REO” residences. Other sellers are then forced to reset their prices in response to the lower prices offered by the banks. Until demand improves and the supply of property declines, prices continue in a downward trend and the average number of days on the market continues to grow. Pagosa Springs is no exception to this rule.

As the market begins to move toward a recovery stage, new speculators or Bottom Feeders re-enter the market and begin to invest. Typically, they only buy those properties that they have identified as exceptional bargains, often from sellers in dire straits; they look for properties that will appreciate greatly as the recovering market picks up momentum. For our area, these are not the typical second home buyers that so many agents have been used to dealing with during a strong market. They are driven by the potential returns on their investments, not by the thought of creating great memories enjoying the Pagosa Springs lifestyle with their family and friends. They expect their broker to help sort through all the available inventory to find the most motivated sellers, the best choices among all the properties, so that they can lock in a good return on the buy side by purchasing below perceived value.

This type of buyer expects a level of service that many agents never had to provide while the market was red hot. They want comparative market data that shows much more that the basics available in the local MLS program. They also expect the broker to know about rental rates, present and projected, rental inventory and trends, replacement costs, barriers to entry, etc. Many agents within the Pagosa Springs market don’t want to put out much effort in order to earn a fee, but with these buyers, it is what is needed expected.

Personally, I love Bottom Feeders. They are the buyers that fearlessly wade back into the water after everyone else has bailed out. They are the buyers that help confirm the bottom of the market. They help set the stage for the real estate recovery. They are a necessary force within the market that must be dealt with in order for the market to return to any form of normalcy. In exchange for the high level of risk they undertake by re-entering the market early, they are entitled to generous returns on their investments.

During the last major real estate downturn of the 1980′s I worked with many “Bottom Feeders”. Most of them made investments that seemed high risk to the average investor at the time. Five years later they looked like the Einsteins of the real estate world, having watched their early investments grow in value far beyond what anyone expected.

During that same period of time I worked with developers and investors that found themselves on the wrong end of the real estate debt leverage pendulum. Some of the owners ended up deeding their properties back to the lenders, for others we were able to restructure their debt in order to buy more time for the market to recover. The lenders I worked with knew very little about managing and marketing the real estate assets they had acquired in foreclosure. What they soon found out was that they needed someone to aggressively market their REO. The longer they kept real estate assets on their books, the larger the loss reserves they were required to set aside, the less money they had available to loan out. We developed and implemented some very creative marketing strategies to quickly liquidate large blocks of residential real estate and commercial land. In order to move property in extremely slow markets we had to find ways to attract and work with as many Bottom Feeders as possible. It was a “win-win” relationship. The banks disposed of a large volume of non-performing real estate assets, the Bottom Feeders made some very good real estate buys, and the geographic markets where the REO were located moved further along in their real estate recoveries. When I am working with experienced Bottom Feeders in Pagosa Springs, I know the beginning of the real estate recovery can’t be too far off. I love Bottom Feeders!

What Could be Done to Speed Up the Real Estate Recovery?

Monday, January 26th, 2009

Over the last several months, real estate is a topic that has come up often when we are having discussions with Pagosa Springs Sellers. Often the feeling is that all of us must simply wait things out. Wait for the national economy to improve to the point that large numbers of jobs are being created, real household income begins to grow again and consumer confidence is restored enough to start the real estate up cycle again. Here at Pagosa Springs Source, we like to think outside the box, we prefer to look at the real estate problem from several perspectives to reveal other possible solutions.

When we do this, we see that the local real estate market is really suffering from two conditions. First, a surplus of unsold inventory; there are simply many more Pagosa Springs properties on the market than the current level of demand can absorb— in a reasonable period of time. Nationally, it is said that a six month supply of residential inventory means the real estate market is in equilibrium, the supply is balanced, relative for the amount of demand. Historically, Pagosa Springs real estate has always carried a greater level of inventory, owing in part to the seasonal component of demand. More property changes hands during the second and third quarters of the year and therefore, more real estate typically comes into the market during those months. Also, many of the Pagosa Springs Sellers do not have the same level of motivation of the typical Sellers in a suburban setting where a home is placed on the market due to a job transfer, where the Seller needs to be relocated in 30-60 days. Pagosa Springs real estate has a greater percentage of Sellers that are discretionary Sellers, they typically own their property as a second home, have no mortgage debt, and are not in a hurry to sell. Under these conditions, they can afford to wait out a slow Pagosa Springs real estate market.

We think the real question for the Pagosa Springs real estate market is, “what can be done to stimulate demand?” What can be done, near term to bring more potential Buyers into the market? We believe the key here is for Pagosa Springs real estate to begin to aggressively market itself to more affluent tourists; those that enjoy the wonderful mountain lifestyle that we have to offer, and those that have the financial resources to potentially invest in our area. This concept is not new, it is one we have advocated for the last seven years. Unfortunately, the one local entity in Pagosa Springs that has been the recipient of nearly all of the Lodging Tax Revenues, (that are earmarked, by state statute for tourism related marketing), the Town Tourism Committee (“TTC”) has been ineffective over the last three years in allocating its resources. Pagosa Springs real estate is far behind many other small, friendly mountain communities in the marketing arena. If an effort to put Pagosa Springs on the map as a highly desirable mountain recreational community is put into effect quickly, we can attract a significant number of new visitors to Pagosa Springs and jump start our real estate recovery. We are not going to attract any large companies looking for a place to move a manufacturing plant and create 1,000 new jobs. Pagosa Springs lifeblood has been and will likely remain-tourism. We need to accept that reality and embrace it fully!

Market Recap

  • Avg. Sales Price: $258,000

  • Avg. Days on Market: 230

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