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Michael Heraty
Managing Broker
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Archive for March 2009

Why I Like Bottom Feeders in Pagosa Springs: Pagosa Source Real Estate Advisors

Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

Bottom Feeder: An opportunist who profits from the misfortunes of others.

Recently one of our agents had a brief exchange with a real estate professional from another office here in Pagosa Springs. The other agent was lamenting the fact that the only interest her office was experiencing was from “Bottom Feeders”. In real estate, a “Bottom Feeder” is a prospective real estate buyer that is only interested in buying when prices are at the bottom of the cycle, or when they can acquire a good property at a price far below perceived value. Some agents and sellers have a disdain for this type of buyer, but I don’t and I will explain why.

During a typical real estate cycle, the market accelerates and prices appreciate rapidly. Then at some point events bring about a drop in demand, (a rise in interest rates, a large increase in unemployment, a huge drop in the stock market, or a meltdown of the mortgage markets) and the volume of transactions and the level of prices begin to decline. The curve downward steepens as demand further declines and supply increases, when more holders of real estate decide to sell. Generally, the first to sell are the experienced speculators, later the novice real estate speculators join in, and finally the more passive investors act out of fear and dump their properties. Eventually, over-extended borrowers find themselves unable to refinance, and lenders begin foreclosing and putting their properties on the market. For some areas severely impacted by foreclosed properties, the markets are driven by the low prices offered on “bank-owned” or “REO” residences. Other sellers are then forced to reset their prices in response to the lower prices offered by the banks. Until demand improves and the supply of property declines, prices continue in a downward trend and the average number of days on the market continues to grow. Pagosa Springs is no exception to this rule.

As the market begins to move toward a recovery stage, new speculators or Bottom Feeders re-enter the market and begin to invest. Typically, they only buy those properties that they have identified as exceptional bargains, often from sellers in dire straits; they look for properties that will appreciate greatly as the recovering market picks up momentum. For our area, these are not the typical second home buyers that so many agents have been used to dealing with during a strong market. They are driven by the potential returns on their investments, not by the thought of creating great memories enjoying the Pagosa Springs lifestyle with their family and friends. They expect their broker to help sort through all the available inventory to find the most motivated sellers, the best choices among all the properties, so that they can lock in a good return on the buy side by purchasing below perceived value.

This type of buyer expects a level of service that many agents never had to provide while the market was red hot. They want comparative market data that shows much more that the basics available in the local MLS program. They also expect the broker to know about rental rates, present and projected, rental inventory and trends, replacement costs, barriers to entry, etc. Many agents within the Pagosa Springs market don’t want to put out much effort in order to earn a fee, but with these buyers, it is what is needed expected.

Personally, I love Bottom Feeders. They are the buyers that fearlessly wade back into the water after everyone else has bailed out. They are the buyers that help confirm the bottom of the market. They help set the stage for the real estate recovery. They are a necessary force within the market that must be dealt with in order for the market to return to any form of normalcy. In exchange for the high level of risk they undertake by re-entering the market early, they are entitled to generous returns on their investments.

During the last major real estate downturn of the 1980′s I worked with many “Bottom Feeders”. Most of them made investments that seemed high risk to the average investor at the time. Five years later they looked like the Einsteins of the real estate world, having watched their early investments grow in value far beyond what anyone expected.

During that same period of time I worked with developers and investors that found themselves on the wrong end of the real estate debt leverage pendulum. Some of the owners ended up deeding their properties back to the lenders, for others we were able to restructure their debt in order to buy more time for the market to recover. The lenders I worked with knew very little about managing and marketing the real estate assets they had acquired in foreclosure. What they soon found out was that they needed someone to aggressively market their REO. The longer they kept real estate assets on their books, the larger the loss reserves they were required to set aside, the less money they had available to loan out. We developed and implemented some very creative marketing strategies to quickly liquidate large blocks of residential real estate and commercial land. In order to move property in extremely slow markets we had to find ways to attract and work with as many Bottom Feeders as possible. It was a “win-win” relationship. The banks disposed of a large volume of non-performing real estate assets, the Bottom Feeders made some very good real estate buys, and the geographic markets where the REO were located moved further along in their real estate recoveries. When I am working with experienced Bottom Feeders in Pagosa Springs, I know the beginning of the real estate recovery can’t be too far off. I love Bottom Feeders!

What About 35-Acre Ranch Properties?

Tuesday, March 24th, 2009

Over the last 15 years throughout Colorado, many of the large ranches have been bought up and developed. In most cases the popular parcel size is 35 acres. The reason for this is the Colorado Subdivision Act, passed in the 1970′s which defined a subdivision as any splitting of land into two or more tracts either of which is less than 35 acres. Under this regulation, parcels split into less than 35 acres come under significantly more regulations, both from the county and the state. To stay outside of those regulatory statutes, developers typically size the parcels to a minimum of 35 acres.

In the typical Pagosa Springs ranch development, a large ranch is divided into 35-acre parcels after laying out the roads, utilities and open space areas. Usually the developer will record protective covenants and establish annual assessments to cover the maintenance of the roads, fencing and common areas as well as a property owner’s association to administer the covenants compliance and other tasks. In the Pagosa Springs area, annual maintenance assessments run from a low of $600 to a high of $5,000.

In many of the ranch developments around Pagosa Springs, owners have opted to retain agricultural property tax status by maintaining livestock grazing within the ranch. In the typical arrangement the cattleman pays a small amount per head or per pair as a grazing fee and grazes the land from about May to mid October. This arrangement results in a substantial property tax savings for the parcel owners. By having an agricultural status on the land the taxes will typically be less than $100 per year. (This figure will go up of course, once a home is built on the land). By comparison, a 35 acre tract with a market value of $400,000 without agricultural status would run in the neighborhood of $4,000 or more per year.

So, what other costs are involved in owning a 35-acre tract near Pagosa Springs? Usually the costs are limited to the property taxes and the annual property owner’s association assessments. For some tracts the total annual carrying costs can be as low as $700. So, when looking at a ranch parcel as a potential investment, it is important to be sure the 35-acre tract is in a qualified grazing lease arrangement. You also want to be sure the property owner’s association is adequately funded. If it is not there could be substantial special assessments in the future. You also want to be certain that the roads are well built and that the private water system is in good shape. Replacement of roads or water system components can be very expensive. Well run property owner association will keep a prudent reserve for capital repairs and replacements.

Overall, the 35 acre market in Pagosa Springs has softened somewhat over the last five years, except for those parcels that are closest to town. It seems fewer people are interested in owning acreage that may be 20-30 minutes from town. We also know that many 35-acre tracts were purchased in past years for investment. Some owners have experienced significant losses in their stock portfolios and have decided to sell their land to try to offset some of those losses. We have seen more people looking to own land closer to town, most often within a 15 minute drive, especially if they are looking at living here full time. Nevertheless, an investment in a 35 acre tract can be rewarding in terms of future value if you follow these guidelines:

-Be careful when considering tracts more than a 15 minute drive from town.

-Choose a tract with an impressive view from the building site. Be sure the quality of the site won’t be compromised by an adjacent parcel in the future. (Some ranches have protected building envelopes, most do not.)

-Be sure the parcel is served with central water and that the system is sufficient to supply the entire development at full build-out.

-Look for a ranch that will retain agricultural property tax status. Without this your carrying costs will be significantly higher.

-Be certain the property owners association is adequately funded and well managed, talk with the directors about their plans for the future.

-Carefully review the protective covenants and architectural guidelines and be sure there is full compliance within the ranch.

-Don’t invest in a 35-acre tract with the plan to flip it in a year or two. You should be prepared to wait a minimum of 3-5 years if you expect to realize any significant appreciation in value.

If you follow these guidelines while working with an experienced Pagosa Springs real estate broker, you should do well. The supply of ranch tracts is limited and it is likely that new developments will be more expensive to bring to market in the future. There will always be those that dream of owning their own little Colorado ranch property, and a good number of those will follow through and make a purchase in the years ahead.

Feel free to contact us at 970 264-7000 to discuss any of the 35-acre ranch developments here in SW Colorado.

What is the Pagosa Springs Land Market Doing?

Friday, March 20th, 2009

Much of my writing over the last couple has been on the residential real estate market within Pagosa Springs. Much of our reader interest has focused on this component of the market and recently others have inquired as to the market conditions for home sites, small acreage and larger land parcels in the Pagosa Springs area.

I reviewed the sales statistics for land transactions for the last 12 months as well as the same periods going back for five years. No real surprises in that the market transaction and dollar volume peaked in 2005 and has been a steady downward trend ever since. Year to date sales figures reveal the market is down by 50% in transaction volume and 86% in dollar volume as compared to the same period one year back. This is bad news for Sellers, but good news for Buyers. There is plenty of inventory to choose from and land prices have come down from the peak period, with Sellers starting to aggressively re-price their listings now that spring is here.

Yes, there are still a lot of land offerings that are unrealistically priced, and, often the Sellers are either not informed as to where the market has moved, or they are not really serious Sellers and have decided to wait as long as it takes for the market to meet their price expectations. For Buyers that are serious about becoming involved in land ownership, we think this is a good time to start looking. We do have a couple of caveats.

First, don’t be concerned about trying to pick the perfect bottom of this market cycle. If you do, you will likely miss it, never invest, and become one of many “I could have’s” that you hear about at cocktail parties and other social gatherings.

Second, market conditions are not conducive to the buy and flip strategies of the past. You should be prepared to buy and hold your land investment for 3-5 years.

Third, when looking at land, remember that here in Pagosa Springs, what sells is location and view. You also want to be sure the property has good utility service, especially central water, and good maintained access.

And Fourth, use an experienced Broker that really understands the land market. It is not the same as the residential market. Use the research a good Broker can provide in terms of price trends and help with locating the areas that are likely to appreciate the most when the real estate cycle starts upward again. A good Broker will save you time and make you money. Use their services.

Call me anytime to discuss any real estate ideas or concerns you may have.

WANTED: Serious Sellers

Friday, March 13th, 2009

I recently learned that one of the real estate offices here in Pagosa Springs was closing. Under the terms of their franchise agreement, the owner was not permitted to close the business and go to work for another local brokerage. It seems they required a personal guarantee of lifetime indenture to their brand, and so, the owner is forced to consider the legal avenue of a personal bankruptcy filing in order to be able to continue to support his family. There is something wrong with this picture. It seems to me that given the financial turmoil within our economy, some franchise laws should be revisited. I know this same scenario is being played out across the country as real estate franchisees struggle to pay the fees demanded to support the corporate structure and debt loads of the national firms. See related article on Realogy, parent company of Coldwell Banker, ERA, Century 21 and Sotheby’s

With all of the talk about financial reform, it seems these franchise agreements involving huge public companies need to be looked at closely to determine if they really reflect what is best for all the stakeholders. So that’s it for today’s soapbox.

We continue to meet with Pagosa Springs sellers that tell us they really want to get their property sold in the coming season. Some explain that they have been on the market for 2-3 years without getting any offers. Others tell us they realize they missed a better market during the last several years but they now need to sell in order to move forward with their lives. Some of these sellers are realistic. A few remain stuck in the financial mindset of more prosperous years.

Our advice to all Pagosa Springs sellers is the same. We will provide the most qualified, experienced, innovative and creative marketing efforts available. But we do not have the power to make the Pagosa Springs market move to where a seller wants or needs it to go. Every seller wants to believe that their property is the exception to the rule. They know their property is better than their neighbors that sold for a premium, two years ago. That may have indeed been the case, but, that was then, and this is now.

The Pagosa Springs market forces of supply and demand determine the price a property will sell. Presently, those forces favor the buyer. The good news for Pagosa Springs sellers is that by taking their proceeds and entering another real estate market in another community, with few exceptions, their purchasing power will be better than it would have been 2-3 years ago. In years when properties were appreciating at a high rate, some sellers put their property on the market with what I call the “Hail Mary” approach. They put a high price on it, thinking that if someone were crazy enough to pay their price they would sell. Amazingly, while the Pagosa Springs market was in an upward frenzy, in a few isolated cases, that approach actually worked. But, that world was way different from the real estate market of today. Pagosa Springs market is where only serious sellers need apply. Like any successful real estate firm, we have to carefully deploy our limited resources in order to remain in business. We can’t waste our time and talent trying to achieve a “Hail Mary” sale.

So, serious Pagosa Springs sellers should give us a call. To those that are not serious we would politely say “it really doesn’t matter who you call”.

Information on The Stimulus Package

Thursday, March 12th, 2009

I had a meeting recently with a local bank president to discuss a strategy for marketing their REO. In the history of this particular bank, this is the first time they have acquired a property as a result of a foreclosure. The value of the property is in the range of $120,000-$130,000. Much different than what we read about every day in the media among the large banks in America. He explained his bank didn’t invest one cent in any derivatives or any of the other exotic investments, though the salesmen came to their board meeting and made their pitch.

At the end of the meeting, after the salesman packed up his Power Point Presentation, he remarked to his directors that the returns the guy was projecting sure looked attractive and then he asked whether any of them understood what the guy was selling. Not a one of them were able to clearly grasp what was being offered. They decided that if they couldn’t understand what it was, it didn’t matter what is was projected to return, and they concluded they had no business investing in it. Pretty easy analysis-too bad the big banks didn’t keep it simple!

Here in Pagosa Springs we are awaiting the ripple effect of the spending stimulus approved by the President and Congress. So far we have not seen any positive impact. From a review of the sales data for the first two months of 2009, it is evident that buyers are largely staying on the sidelines, with waiting to find out more inofrmation about how the Stimulus Package will affect them, or waiting to determine whether the real estate market in Pagosa Springs has hit bottom yet.

The year to date total number of residential closings is off by 36% as compared to the same period last year while the dollar volume is down 60%. There is no definitive evidence that prices are declining like those in areas that have been in the news constantly-Las Vegas and Phoenix. Instead, here in Pagosa Springs, some sellers decide to pull their properties off the real estate market, and others opt to keep their homes on the real estate market, but refuse to adjust the price in order to attract more buyer attention.

What we are hearing from our discussions with Pagosa Springs property owners, as well as prospective buyers is that many are concerned about whether there will be changes in the tax code involving the deduction of mortgage interest expenses. Others are concerned about information on increasing capital gains tax rates and overall hikes in the tax rates for those the government defines as “wealthy”.

Understandably, most of those concerned with these issues are in the upper income brackets, in many cases small business owners or retirees that have seen a large percentage of their stock portfolio values deteriorate in the last six months. Many of the second home buyers tend to fit within this group and one can’t blame them for being reluctant to invest when there is much uncertainty in the economy. There are some reasons to be hopeful that many of these concerns may not turn out as badly as some think.

The mortgage interest deduction has been somewhat of a sacred cow. The banking industry lobby, as well as the Realtor lobby has worked hard to protect this provision of the tax code. During a struggling economy it would seem to be political suicide to take this benefit away from the American homeowner. We know the Realtor lobby, one of the strongest in Washington, would go to battle on that issue.

We are also hopeful that none of the increases in tax rates that are being proposed would actually take effect until the entire economy is on much stronger footing. Again, it would seem like very bad timing to burden small business owners, the single greatest contributors to job growth, with more taxes while many are fighting for their survival. One thing is certain, Washington is full of surprises and some may be welcomed, and other may be feared. Stay in touch with your local, state and national political leaders. They need to hear from us, now especially.

Market Recap

  • Avg. Sales Price: $258,000

  • Avg. Days on Market: 230

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