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Posts Tagged ‘Housing Market’

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Improving Housing Market in Raleigh, NC

Tuesday, January 25th, 2011

Last week’s economic reports gave us classic good news/bad news scenarios. The bad news is that mortgage rates inched higher and we saw signs of increased inflation. The good news is that the job market, and the economy in general, continue to slowly improve.

We are now seeing signs of life in the housing sector as well. Existing Home Sales were up 12%, Building Permits rose 17% and the inventory of unsold homes shrunk by 4%.

This week will be dominated by two things: the Fed meeting which adjourns on Wednesday and Friday’s report on the 4th Quarter GDP. The Fed meeting is interesting because right now the Fed presidents are split on whether to raise rates or not. The majority are against it but that is changing. The initial GDP estimate is for the economy to have grown 3.8% in the 4th quarter.

In other news and events this week that can affect rates, the Treasury will auction off nearly $100 billion in 2, 5 and 7 year notes on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Spain and Portugal had relatively strong sales of their bonds last week so foreign interest in US securities could decrease which would put more upward pressure on interest rates.

Rounding out the week is Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, New Home Sales on Wednesday, Weekly Jobless Claims and Durable Goods on Thursday with the 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index on Friday. Yes, it will be a busy week!

Patrick Wynn

Assistant Vice President

Bradford Mortgage Company

A division of NewBridge Bank

3605 Glenwood Avenue

Suite 160

Raleigh, NC 27612

O) (919) 787-9357

F) (919) 645-0686

C) (919) 608-1217

www.raleighmortgageloans.com

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Mortgage Update!

Thursday, December 16th, 2010

Mortgage rates rose to their highest levels since June last week as
mortgage bonds reacted negatively to the proposed extension of the Bush
era tax cuts.

The new plan contains a one year payroll tax deduction and extended
unemployment benefits which make the total package much more expensive
than what was expected. While this was bad for mortgage bonds it was
good for the stock market. Consumer sentiment is up and jobless claims
are down which are further evidence the economy continues to improve.

As we see these continued improvements we also see inflation fears
increasing. Just not by the Fed. Yield curves that once pointed to Fed
rate increases in late 2011 now point to late 2012. The Fed has a very
vested interest in seeing the housing market improve and will continue
to spend to make sure rates stay low. With rates low and home prices
lower, 2011 is starting to look like a real bounce back year for real
estate.

The volatility we’ve seen in the mortgage bond market the past few weeks
has come during relatively quiet periods for economic reports with only
a few exceptions. This week is jam packed with information and is
headlined by the Fed meeting on Tuesday. We’ll see inflation reports
with the Producer Price Index on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index on
Wednesday. Tuesday also brings us Retail Sales with Industrial
Production and Capacity Utilization on Wednesday. The week finishes
with Housing Starts and the Philly Fed Survey on Thursday and Leading
Economic Indicators on Friday.

With this amount of important releases and the huge daily swings we’ve
seen recently expect this to be one crazy week, especially ahead of the
Christmas Holiday!

Have a great week and let me know if there is anyway I can help!

Patrick Wynn

Assistant Vice President

Bradford Mortgage Company

A division of NewBridge Bank

3605 Glenwood Avenue

Suite 160

Raleigh, NC 27612

O) (919) 787-9357

F) (919) 645-0686

C) (919) 608-1217

www.raleighmortgageloans.com

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Lender Rate Update

Tuesday, July 20th, 2010

Last week, rates got even better. Inflation remained in check, Retail
Sales were below expectations and the reading of the Fed minutes shows
growth expectations are lower than previously thought as well. The
bottom line is the economy is still obviously suffering and that will
keep rates unbelievably low.

This week has very few economic reports. There is nothing coming out
today and tomorrow will give us Housing Starts. Noting again on
Wednesday with Weekly Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales and Leading
Economic Indicators on Thursday. That’s it. Housing Starts will give
us a peak at future economic activity. A good number may buoy consumer
confidence which ultimately helps the housing market but would be a
detriment to rates……but as low as rates are right now we can afford
some small increases. Weekly Jobless Claims are expected lower which
would also be a sign of an improving economy. That wouldn’t be rate
friendly but obviously low rates aren’t inducing people to buy homes.
Existing Home Sales rarely has much affect on mortgage rates but is
expected to be down from a dismal number reported last month. On a
positive note, many of you have reported to me that listings and
showings seem to have increased over the past couple weeks. Wake County
is now the most populous county in North Carolina which is more evidence
that our area continues to grow. Unemployment here has decreased over
the past few months. We were one of the last areas in the country to
feel the burst of the housing bubble and are poised to be one of the
first to recover as well.

Patrick Wynn

Assistant Vice President

Bradford Mortgage Company

A division of NewBridge Bank

3605 Glenwood Avenue

Suite 160

Raleigh, NC 27612

O) (919) 787-9357

F) (919) 645-0686

C) (919) 608-1217

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Posted in Housing Market | No Comments »

The Weekly Martini – Rates Remain Low!!!!!

Monday, July 12th, 2010

With very little economic news during the short holiday week, mortgage
rates remained at the lowest levels in decades in fact the lowest since
the Nixon Administration. While mortgage rates ended the week slightly
lower, the level of volatility in mortgage markets and other financial
markets was relatively high. Even without major news, sudden movements
in rates were common during the week. The stock market displayed similar
price swings, as the Dow recovered the roughly 400 points it lost the
prior week. This volatility in financial markets reflects the high level
of investor uncertainty about the pace of global economic growth.

The current low mortgage rates can be attributed to a couple of factors.
One is that inflation is under control and is expected to remain low for
quite a while. Another is that demand for mortgage-backed securities
(MBS) is high. When packaged and sold as government guaranteed MBS,
mortgages are viewed as safe investments, much like US Treasury
securities, and safety has been important to investors in these
uncertain times. With financial regulatory reform behind them, Congress
is now beginning to consider the appropriate role for the government in
the housing market. Central issues include government guarantees for
mortgages and the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The debate is
expected to be long and difficult, with no easy answers.

Also Notable:

* Weekly Jobless Claims dropped to the lowest level in two months
* As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) made no change in
rates
* The Treasury will auction $69 billion in 3-yr, 10-yr, and 30-yr
securities next week
* The Fed’s Fisher suggested that the main economic challenge is
building confidence

Week Ahead

The most significant economic data next week will be the monthly
inflation reports. The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the
increase in prices of “intermediate” goods used by companies to produce
finished products and will come out on Thursday. The Consumer Price
Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will
come out on Friday. CPI looks at the price change for those finished
goods which are sold to consumers. In addition, The Retail Sales report
will be released on Wednesday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of
economic activity. The detailed FOMC Minutes from the June 23 Fed
meeting will also come out on Wednesday. Industrial Production, an
important indicator of economic growth, is scheduled for Thursday.
Empire State, Import Prices, Leading Indicators, the Trade Balance,
Consumer Confidence, and Philly Fed will round out the week. If that is
not enough, there will be Treasury auctions on Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday.

Kevin Martini

THE KEVIN MARTINI GROUP: SUNTRUST MORTGAGE

1130 Situs Court, Suite 190, Raleigh, North Carolina

919.858.0023 – Kevin@KevinMartini.com

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The Weekly Martini

Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

Mortgage rates dropped to the lowest level in decades this week, and
home affordability is very favorable. Uncertainty about the extent of
global economic growth and continued low inflation levels have helped
mortgage rates reach these levels.

After months of debate, Congress reached agreement on the Financial
Reform bill, and it is expected to pass next week. The bill includes
many provisions which will affect mortgage lending and the home buying
process, but the impact will not be fully known for some time as many of
its changes are subject to regulatory discretion. Separately, the larger
bill containing an extension to the home buyer tax credit “close-by”
deadline failed to pass this week. Lawmakers will continue to debate the
bill, but it appears unlikely that the “close-by” deadline will be
changed before the current June 30 deadline is reached.

The performance difference in this week’s two housing reports was stark,
but it was mostly due to measurement methods. May Existing Home Sales
fell 2% from April, and were up 19% from one year ago. May New Home
Sales dropped 33% from April, which was about 13% lower than one year
ago, and a record low level. There’s an important difference between the
two reports, though. Existing Home Sales measure transaction closings,
while New Home Sales are based on contract signings. The April 30
contract signing deadline to receive the home buyer tax credit pulled
many contract signings forward into April, and some of these deals
closed in May. As a result, Existing Home Sales were still boosted by
the tax credit in May, while New Home Sales were not.

Also Notable:

* Consumer Sentiment rose to the highest level since January 2008
* As expected, the Fed made no change in the fed funds rate
* The Fed suggested that the labor market is “improving gradually”

* China unexpectedly announced that it will allow its exchange
rate more freedom

Week Ahead

The biggest economic event next week will be the important Employment
report on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the
Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly
anticipated economic data of the month. Early estimates are for a
decrease of about 70K jobs in June. Before the employment data, Personal
Income will be released on Monday. Chicago PMI will come out on
Wednesday. The ISM manufacturing index will be released on Thursday,
along with Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing
market. Consumer Confidence, Construction Spending and Factory Orders
will round out the schedule.

Kevin Martini

THE KEVIN MARTINI GROUP: SUNTRUST MORTGAGE

1130 Situs Court, Suite 190, Raleigh, North Carolina

919.858.0023 – Kevin@KevinMartini.com

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Fannie Mae’s Loan Quality Initiative

Monday, June 14th, 2010

Fannie Mae has instituted what they call a “Loan Quality Initiative”
that began with loan applications taken starting June 1. The piece that
will affect all of us has to do with discovering new debts prior to
closing. On conventional loans approved with Fannie Mae’s Desktop
Underwriter lenders are now required to pull a new credit report just
prior to closing. We can pull a credit report with no credit scores so
at this point there won’t be any repercussions there unless someone does
pull a report with scores. If debts are more than 2% from what was
previously shown the loan has to be re-underwritten. If there are new
inquiries from when the last report was pulled the lender must determine
that no new credit has been opened. This will affect some of your
closings so we all must continue to counsel our buyers on not doing
ANYTHING credit wise when they are in the process of buying a home. It
is expected that Freddie Mac will soon adopt this guideline as well.
Already we are seeing some of our investors adopt this policy on
government loans as well. It appears this will become loan policy
across the board. If you are working with buyers right now make sure
they are not looking at also buying a new car, boat, furniture,
appliances or anything else until AFTER they have closed. If you have
any questions on this feel free to call.

Patrick Wynn

Assistant Vice President

Bradford Mortgage Company

A division of NewBridge Bank

3605 Glenwood Avenue

Suite 160

Raleigh, NC 27612

O) (919) 787-9357

F) (919) 645-0686

C) (919) 608-1217

www.raleighmortgageloans.com

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Greek Troubles Overshadow Strong Data

Wednesday, May 12th, 2010

Despite stronger than expected economic data, the financial situation in
Greece held the greatest influence on mortgage rates this week. A flight
to quality and prospects of slower economic growth in Europe were
favorable for mortgage markets and negative for the stock market, and
mortgage rates ended the week lower.

Global financial markets remained focused on the economic troubles of
Greece. Greek workers responded to proposed austerity measures with
strikes and riots, and investors grew increasingly concerned that other
smaller European countries will face similar problems cutting their
budget deficits. As a result, US mortgage markets were helped in two
primary ways. First, in response to the uncertainty in Europe, investors
shifted funds to safer investments, including US Treasuries and
mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Second, investors expect that
continued economic turmoil in Europe will reduce US exports to the
region, slowing US economic growth and reducing inflationary pressures.
Increased demand for MBS and lower future inflation are both positive
for mortgage markets.

The April Employment report exceeded expectations in nearly every area.
Against a consensus forecast of 190K, the economy added 290K jobs in
April, the most since March 2006, and the data from prior months was
revised higher by an additional 121K. The April figures include 66K
temporary census employees hired by the government, but this was fewer
than expected. The manufacturing sector added the most jobs since 1998.
The Unemployment Rate rose to 9.9% from 9.7%, but that was due to
unexpectedly large growth in the labor force as more people began to
seek jobs.

Also Notable:

* March Pending Home Sales increased 5.3% from February
* The ISM manufacturing index rose to the highest level since June
2004
* As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) made no change in
rates
* Oil prices declined more than $10 per barrel to $75 per barrel

Week Ahead

The most significant economic data next week will be Friday’s Retail
Sales report. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity.
Industrial Production, another important indicator of economic activity,
will be released on Friday as well. Import Prices, the Trade Balance,
and Consumer Sentiment will round out a light week. There will be
Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Kevin Martini

THE KEVIN MARTINI GROUP: SUNTRUST MORTGAGE

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Census Bureau: Raleigh emerges as big population winner

Monday, May 3rd, 2010

The Raleigh-Cary area has made the most impressive climb since 2000 in
the population rankings of metropolitan areas, according to estimates
released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Raleigh-Cary, which ranked 59th in 2000, is 49th in the new standings
with a population of almost 1.13 million, up from 797,000 in 2000.
Raleigh-Cary’s rise of 10 places in nine years is the biggest gain
registered by any metro in the current top 50.

Buffalo and New Orleans, on the other hand, suffered the sharpest
declines.

The Census Bureau released population estimates for all 940 metropolitan
and micropolitan areas across the country on Tuesday. The figures do not
come from the decennial census that is presently under way, but reflect
the population situation as of July 1, 2009.

While Raleigh-Cary cracked the top 50, the Durham MSA, which includes
Chapel Hill, crept up three spots to No. 102. Durham’s population grew
to 501,228 as of July 1, 2009, from 426,293 in 2000. Durham’s population
fell less than 10,000 short of from breaking into the top 100; Modesto,
Calif., currently holds the No. 100 ranking with a population of
510,385.

Click here for the new estimates for all U.S. metros and micros.

clings_to_50th_on_population_list.html>

Buffalo was 42nd in 2000, but is 50th now, a drop of eight places. New
Orleans has also dropped eight places since the turn of the century -
from 38th to 46th – mainly due to the devastation caused by Hurricane
Katrina.

Other big gainers during the past decade were Las Vegas (up six places),
Austin and Jacksonville (both up five) and Charlotte (up four).

Other significant declines occurred in Providence, R.I., which fell five
places, and Milwaukee, which dropped four.

Best Regards,

Corey Bauer

Home Mortgage Consultant

Wells Fargo Home Mortgage

M5609-011

7721 Six Forks Road, Suite 116

Raleigh, NC 27615

(Office: 919-841-5305

4 Fax: 866-709-6842

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Homebuyers Tax Credit Expires This Week! Thousands of Dollars Could Slip Through Your Fingers!

Tuesday, April 27th, 2010

The heat is on for those who are out shopping for homes right now – as
the Homebuyers Tax Credit is about to come to an end.

Last November, the government expanded and extended the new Homebuyers
Tax Credit. According to the program, first-time homebuyers are eligible
for a tax credit of up to 10% of the purchase price of the home, with a
maximum credit of $8,000. And current homeowners are eligible for up to
$6,500.

Although military personnel may qualify for a special extension, the
vast majority of homeowners must have contracts in effect no later than
April 30, 2010 and must close no later than June 30, 2010 to qualify for
the credit.

This means that homebuyers now have less than one week to get their
paperwork going to qualify for this credit, before it goes away!

Here are some important details about this tax credit.

Dollar-for-Dollar Benefit

The benefit of a tax credit is that it’s a dollar-for-dollar benefit,
rather than a “tax deduction” or reduction in tax liability that would
only reduce $1,000 to $1,500 when all was said and done.

So, if a first-time homebuyer who qualified for the entire benefit were
to owe $8,000 in income taxes and would qualify for a tax credit of
$8,000, she would owe nothing.

Even Better… It’s Refundable!

Remember, because it’s a tax credit, it’s refundable! That means a
homebuyer can receive a check for the credit if he or she has little or
no income tax liability.

For example, if a first-time homebuyer is eligible for a tax credit of
$8,000 but is liable for $4,000 in income tax, she can still receive a
check for the remaining $4,000!

What are the Income Caps?

Single tax filers with incomes up to $125,000 are eligible for the total
credit amount. Those who earn more than this cap can receive a partial
credit. However, single filers with incomes of $145,000 and above are
ineligible.

Joint filers with incomes up to $225,000 are eligible for the total
credit amount. Those who earn more than this cap can receive a partial
credit. However, joint filers with incomes of $245,000 and above are
ineligible.

What’s the Maximum Purchase Price?

Qualifying buyers may purchase a property with a maximum sales price of
$800,000.

If you or someone you know is in the process of purchasing a home, this
is an important week to take action – feel free to forward this article
to anyone who it might benefit. And give me a call with any questions -
the clock is ticking and the deadline is Friday!!

Doug Schoonmaker

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Mortgage Rates are Better This Week

Monday, July 6th, 2009

By Hugh W. Page, www.fallsofficeloans.com

A few weeks ago, mortgage rates jumped significantly higher as investors began to anticipate what they believed to be signals of an improving economy and therefore the corresponding potential for inflation down the road driven by massive government debt and spending. More recently,however, those concerns have dissipated as it appears the overall economy remains weak, even if less so than earlier this year. The Federal Reserve and Treasury have provided no indication that recently announced programs of bond purchases to support the mortgage markets and economy will change in one way or the other and inflation remains largely a down-the-road concern.

As a result, mortgage interest rates have settled back to a lower level, albeit higher than the lows we reached in late spring.

At weeks end the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for the best customer (FICO score, down payment, 1% Orig Fee, etc) declined to 5.125% with FHA rates falling to 5.250%, and USDA rates remaining at the 5.50% level.

Yesterday, Thursday, gave us the release of our most important piece of economic data each month, the Jobs Report, as well as a double dose that included weekly jobless claims. After an unexpectedly large improvement in May’s report of a smaller than expected job loss of a 322,000 jobs, the June report showed that 467,000 jobs were lost during the month sharply exceeding expectations. Possibly, this indicates that the May report was an anomaly. The nation’s unemployment rate ticked up to 9.5% during the month the smallest such change since last September when the present downturn began to take hold. The rate itself, however, is the worst since 1983. A larger measure of unemployment, “U6″ that takes in to account disaffected workers, those who have given up looking for a job, or have been forced to work part time when they really need full time work, shows the rate is closer to 17%.

Rates have eased back because the economy has done so. The fact is, if you want substantially lower mortgage rates you’ll need to wish for even slower economic growth, and that’s probably not among the best things to want at this point. It’s very possible that after that late spring low-to-high flare in rates that we’ve settled into a range between 5 and 5.50% for awhile.

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