Despite stronger than expected economic data, the financial situation in
Greece held the greatest influence on mortgage rates this week. A flight
to quality and prospects of slower economic growth in Europe were
favorable for mortgage markets and negative for the stock market, and
mortgage rates ended the week lower.
Global financial markets remained focused on the economic troubles of
Greece. Greek workers responded to proposed austerity measures with
strikes and riots, and investors grew increasingly concerned that other
smaller European countries will face similar problems cutting their
budget deficits. As a result, US mortgage markets were helped in two
primary ways. First, in response to the uncertainty in Europe, investors
shifted funds to safer investments, including US Treasuries and
mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Second, investors expect that
continued economic turmoil in Europe will reduce US exports to the
region, slowing US economic growth and reducing inflationary pressures.
Increased demand for MBS and lower future inflation are both positive
for mortgage markets.
The April Employment report exceeded expectations in nearly every area.
Against a consensus forecast of 190K, the economy added 290K jobs in
April, the most since March 2006, and the data from prior months was
revised higher by an additional 121K. The April figures include 66K
temporary census employees hired by the government, but this was fewer
than expected. The manufacturing sector added the most jobs since 1998.
The Unemployment Rate rose to 9.9% from 9.7%, but that was due to
unexpectedly large growth in the labor force as more people began to
seek jobs.
Also Notable:
* March Pending Home Sales increased 5.3% from February
* The ISM manufacturing index rose to the highest level since June
2004
* As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) made no change in
rates
* Oil prices declined more than $10 per barrel to $75 per barrel
Week Ahead
The most significant economic data next week will be Friday’s Retail
Sales report. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity.
Industrial Production, another important indicator of economic activity,
will be released on Friday as well. Import Prices, the Trade Balance,
and Consumer Sentiment will round out a light week. There will be
Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
Kevin Martini
THE KEVIN MARTINI GROUP: SUNTRUST MORTGAGE


Avg. Sales Price: $260,000
Avg. Days on Market: 98
Free Market Alerts
