Mella Pool's Real Estate Blog | NW Raleigh, NC | First Time Home Buyers, Community, Foreclosures, Housing Market, Tax Credit

Inside Real Estate
Let Me Help You!
(919) 874-7531
Follow My Blog
RSS
mellapool
Mella Pool
REALTOR®

    25 Years Experience

Direct: (919) 874-7531



Company Info

Fonville Morisey a long & Foster Company


Real Estate Tools

Schoolsschools

Communitiescommunities

Calculatorscalculators

Archive for November 2009

Giving Thanks for Low Mortgage Rates in Raleigh, NC

Monday, November 30th, 2009

The Thanksgiving Holiday week ended with rates easing a tad yet again.   Economic data released continues to indicate a muted recovery with fits and starts.  Economists are increasingly of the belief that full recovery for a wider share of the economy may not occur until next year some time. In the meantime, continued government support for the nation’s housing markets does seem to be having some beneficial effects, and low mortgage rates are chief among them.

As we get our rates sheets this morning, here’s a sampling of what is available (assumes best credit scores, down payment, etc):

30 Yr Fixed Rate Conforming Loan w/1 Point Loan Origination Fee  -  4.500%
15 Yr Fixed Rate Conforming Loan w/1 Point Loan Origination Fee  -  4.125%
30 Year Fixed Rate FHA Loan with a 1 Point Loan Origination Fee   -  4.750%
30 Year Fixed Rate USDA Loan with a 1 Point Loan Origination Fee -  4.875% (100% Financing with No PMI)
5/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage with a 1 Point Loan Origination Fee  -  3.625% (Fixed for 5 Yrs)
7/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage with a 1 Point Loan Origination Fee  -  4.000% (Fixed for  Yrs)
JUMBO 30 Yr Fixed Rate Mortgage with No Loan Origination Fee    -   5.750%
JUMBO 5/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage w/No Loan Origination Fee  -   4.750% (25% Down)

Last month, the $8,000 “first time” housing tax break was coming to a close. Coupled with slipping mortgage rates during that month, lots of people hit the markets to grab a home. An annualized sales pace of 6.1 million was the result, a 10.1% increase in sales over September and the fastest sales pace since March 2007. That spurt in sales drew down some inventory, and at the present sales level there would be a near-normal 7 months of supply available.  New home sales posted a surprising 6.2% gain in October, but all of that came from a big (23%) sales spurt in the southern region of the US while sales fell in the other regions. Still, 430,000 homes left the inventory rolls, reducing the available supply to 6.7 months nationwide.

It’s a reasonable guess that sales will fall back in November, since there was very likely some future demand pulled into the October sales figures. Although the tax credit was re-authorized and expanded, there will be at least a one-month dip in sales strength, possibly more, all due to the off-again, on-again nature of the credit’s availability.  The housing market has certainly improved relative to where it was earlier this year. Low mortgage rates engineered by the Federal Reserve have been a key support, but for homebuyers, falling prices — and the subsequent improvement in affordability — are the winning combination. The tax credit is perhaps the proverbial “icing on the cake.”

Low mortgage rates will be with us at least until the Fed’s MBS purchasing program comes to a close in March, when they will probably firm somewhat. How much rates firm squarely depends upon the private market’s appetite for these kinds of investments, which still have considerable risk attached with them. Aside from mortgage rates, low market interest rates should remain with us for a while. The minutes of the November 3-4 Federal Reserve meeting reveal that the members continue to support the Fed’s large-scale asset purchase programs, which would have the Fed purchase $1.25 trillion of agency MBS by the end of the first quarter of 2010. While there was some discussion of possible exit strategies, none of the members seemed to feel that any action was imminent.

The economy can’t really get moving until the employment picture improves. A decline in weekly unemployment claims — to 466,000 for the week ending November 21 from 501,000 the week before — continues to show the same agonizingly slow improvement that we’ve seen since they peaked several months ago. The four-week moving average is now below 500,000, the first time that’s happened since last year. Still, we need to see the employment scenario improve drastically before any semblance of normalcy is within reach.

This Friday we get the most important piece of economic data we receive each month, the Jobs Report, where we get another reading on the employment picture.  Look for a rate still in the 10′s.  Stay tuned…..

Hugh W. Page, M.B.A.
Senior Mortgage Consultant
(919) 874-7557 Direct
(919) 595-9707 FAX
hpage@fmlending.com
www.fallsofficeloans.com

Raleigh, NC Housing Market: Rates Ease A Bit

Monday, November 16th, 2009

November 16, 2009 — Mortgage rates dropped some this past week pushing them well into the 4′s again on a 30 Year Fixed Rate loan. Based on technical factors, rates have bounced back to the low end of the range we’ve been living in for many months now, however, history also tells us we can bounce higher very quickly.  So, with the extension of the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, and rates at virtually all time lows, buyers should not wait to take advantage of this unique and unprecedented time for potential homebuyers.  When was the last time someone could get a 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage for 4.750% with 3.5% Down AND get an $8,000 Tax Credit from the Feds?  Easy answer to the question….NEVER.

Here’s a sampling of current mortgage rates available right now for borrowers under the best terms (credit, down payment, etc) :

30 Yr Fixed Rate Mortgage with 1.00 Point Origination Fee – 4.625%

30 Yr Fixed Rate FHA with 1.00 Point Origination Fee – 4.750%

USDA 30 Yr Fixed Rate with .50 Point Origination Fee – 5.000%

Hybrid ARM’s continue to be very attractive for the right borrower with a 7/1 ARM dropping to near 4.000% and a 5/1 ARM well into the mid 3′s (about 3.625% or so).

It was a mixed bag last week with data on the economy   Although job layoffs seem to be slowing with 502,000 new applications for initial unemployment claims filed during the week of November 7, these levels are still consistent with a labor force that is shrinking and not growing.  We need to see claims data below 400,000 before we can start thinking about job growth.  But, the trend is our friend right now.  Consumer moods continued to sour, however, with the initial survey of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan for November dipping and falling back to a reading of 66 indicating continued pessimism at the consumer level.  A busier economic calendar is on tap this week. Measures of inflation, observations about the housing market, industrial health and forward-looking indicators are all due out. Mortgage rates have danced back to levels we’ve touched a couple of times this year, but if the pattern holds they probably won’t hold these levels for long.

Make it a great week….

Hugh W. Page, M.B.A.
Senior Mortgage Consultant
(919) 874-7557 Direct
(919) 595-9707 FAX
hpage@fmlending.com
www.fallsofficeloans.com

Raleigh, NC First Time Home Buyers: $8,000 Homebuyers Tax Credit Extended

Monday, November 9th, 2009

President Obama reups popular tax credit through June 2010 and expands it to include people with higher incomes and some who want to trade up into new homes.

By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer

November 6, 2009: 3:18 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — President Obama signed an extension and expansion of the first-time homebuyers tax credit on Friday.

The $8,000 credit was scheduled to lapse on Dec. 1 but will now be in effect through the end of June. Homebuyers must sign a contract before April 30 and close by June 30. The income limits were also raised: Single buyers can now earn up to $125,000 and still get the full credit while a married couple can earn $225,000.

The bill also made more homeowners eligible to claim the credit on their taxes. First-time buyers — those who have not owned a home in the past three years — still qualify for an $8,000 rebate. But now people who want to trade up can also qualify. Those who have owned and occupied a residence for at least five years out of the past eight can claim a $6,500 tax credit if they close on a purchase by the end of June.

“The new version of the tax credit has the potential to stimulate the housing market even more than the old version due to the fact that more people will qualify under the new rules,” said Gibran Nicholas, chairman of the CMPS Institute, an organization that certifies mortgage bankers and brokers.

Who qualifies?

Nicholas provided four scenarios illustrating how the tax credit rules for existing homebuyers will apply:

  • Harry owned a home in 2001 and 2002 but sold it to relocate for a job. He would qualify for the $8,000 first-time-buyer credit because he has not owned a home in the past three years.
  • Sue purchased a home in 2004 and has lived there since. If she decides to buy a new home, she would qualify for the $6,500 tax credit because she has lived in the same residence for five consecutive years in the past eight.
  • Jane purchased her home in 2002, lived there for five consecutive years before she rented it out in 2007. She would qualify because she was an owner/occupier for at least five consecutive years in the past eight.
  • Mark purchased a home in 2006 and lived there for the past three years. He would not qualify because he is neither a first-time homebuyer nor someone who lived in the same primary residence for five consecutive years out of the past eight.

How it helps the economy

Legislators and industry experts expect that the credit will encourage buyers such as Jane and Sue to move up their purchase plans.

“This bill will shift demand from the second half of 2010 into the first half,” said Pat Newport, a real estate analyst with IHS Global Research. “As a result, home sales and prices will get a boost in the first half of 2010, with payback in the second.”

That’s not a bad thing, according to Bill Kilmer, vice president of advocacy for the National Association of Home Builders. It’s important to stabilize real estate markets quickly to help bring the economy out of its tailspin.

The original $8,000 tax credit appears to have helped accomplish that goal: Home prices have inched up the past few months, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

Would it have happened anyway?

But critics still see the program as being ineffectual because it rewards buyers who would have purchased a home anyway. Newport estimates that fewer than 400,000 of the 2 million who have claimed the original credit made their purchases solely because of the tax advantages.

Furthermore, buyers do not, in reality, receive the entire benefit. “The credit helped prices stabilize,” said Newport. “So the credit has been split between seller and buyer. The sellers are getting higher prices and buyers paying more than they would have without it.”

The housing industry, however, is pleased with the extension, although the credit has not been quite as effective as they hoped.

The industry thought the credit would provide a ripple effect, with sales to first timers triggering as many three additional “move-up” sales.

That did not happen, according to Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

“It did not have the chain reaction impact it was supposed to,” he said. “Instead, many first-timers turned to vacant, foreclosed or other distressed properties the sellers of which were unlikely to be move-up buyers.”

So, the tax credit helped prop up the low end of the market without having much impact on the rest of the spectrum. Expanding the benefit to existing homeowners should boost those segments. That should produce additional benefits, according to Yun.

“Preventing further price decline or even nudging prices up a bit stabilizes housing wealth, which makes homeowners more comfortable in their spending,” said Yun. “They’re more likely to go out to the stores or buy a new car. That provides a boost to the overall economy.”

- Copyright © 2010 Inside Real Estate, LLC

Inside Real Estate does not endorse the agents on this site, and does not guarantee the content submitted by the site's members. Blog and page entries, content, and other information contributed by agents that are members of the site are accountable to the particular agent. Inside Real Estate and Omnia Alliance LLC take no accountability for the content contributed by members to the site.