The Thanksgiving Holiday week ended with rates easing a tad yet again. Economic data released continues to indicate a muted recovery with fits and starts. Economists are increasingly of the belief that full recovery for a wider share of the economy may not occur until next year some time. In the meantime, continued government support for the nation’s housing markets does seem to be having some beneficial effects, and low mortgage rates are chief among them.
As we get our rates sheets this morning, here’s a sampling of what is available (assumes best credit scores, down payment, etc):
30 Yr Fixed Rate Conforming Loan w/1 Point Loan Origination Fee - 4.500%
15 Yr Fixed Rate Conforming Loan w/1 Point Loan Origination Fee - 4.125%
30 Year Fixed Rate FHA Loan with a 1 Point Loan Origination Fee - 4.750%
30 Year Fixed Rate USDA Loan with a 1 Point Loan Origination Fee - 4.875% (100% Financing with No PMI)
5/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage with a 1 Point Loan Origination Fee - 3.625% (Fixed for 5 Yrs)
7/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage with a 1 Point Loan Origination Fee - 4.000% (Fixed for Yrs)
JUMBO 30 Yr Fixed Rate Mortgage with No Loan Origination Fee - 5.750%
JUMBO 5/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage w/No Loan Origination Fee - 4.750% (25% Down)
Last month, the $8,000 “first time” housing tax break was coming to a close. Coupled with slipping mortgage rates during that month, lots of people hit the markets to grab a home. An annualized sales pace of 6.1 million was the result, a 10.1% increase in sales over September and the fastest sales pace since March 2007. That spurt in sales drew down some inventory, and at the present sales level there would be a near-normal 7 months of supply available. New home sales posted a surprising 6.2% gain in October, but all of that came from a big (23%) sales spurt in the southern region of the US while sales fell in the other regions. Still, 430,000 homes left the inventory rolls, reducing the available supply to 6.7 months nationwide.
It’s a reasonable guess that sales will fall back in November, since there was very likely some future demand pulled into the October sales figures. Although the tax credit was re-authorized and expanded, there will be at least a one-month dip in sales strength, possibly more, all due to the off-again, on-again nature of the credit’s availability. The housing market has certainly improved relative to where it was earlier this year. Low mortgage rates engineered by the Federal Reserve have been a key support, but for homebuyers, falling prices — and the subsequent improvement in affordability — are the winning combination. The tax credit is perhaps the proverbial “icing on the cake.”
Low mortgage rates will be with us at least until the Fed’s MBS purchasing program comes to a close in March, when they will probably firm somewhat. How much rates firm squarely depends upon the private market’s appetite for these kinds of investments, which still have considerable risk attached with them. Aside from mortgage rates, low market interest rates should remain with us for a while. The minutes of the November 3-4 Federal Reserve meeting reveal that the members continue to support the Fed’s large-scale asset purchase programs, which would have the Fed purchase $1.25 trillion of agency MBS by the end of the first quarter of 2010. While there was some discussion of possible exit strategies, none of the members seemed to feel that any action was imminent.
The economy can’t really get moving until the employment picture improves. A decline in weekly unemployment claims — to 466,000 for the week ending November 21 from 501,000 the week before — continues to show the same agonizingly slow improvement that we’ve seen since they peaked several months ago. The four-week moving average is now below 500,000, the first time that’s happened since last year. Still, we need to see the employment scenario improve drastically before any semblance of normalcy is within reach.
This Friday we get the most important piece of economic data we receive each month, the Jobs Report, where we get another reading on the employment picture. Look for a rate still in the 10′s. Stay tuned…..
Hugh W. Page, M.B.A.
Senior Mortgage Consultant
(919) 874-7557 Direct
(919) 595-9707 FAX
hpage@fmlending.com
www.fallsofficeloans.com


Avg. Sales Price: $260,000
Avg. Days on Market: 98
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