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lesliejones
Leslie Jones
Principal Broker
    Years of Experience: 22

    GRI: Graduate, Realtors Institiute
    CDPE: Certified Distressed Property Expert
    Green: NAR Green Designation
    CIAS: Certified Investor Agent Specialist

Direct: 503-312-8038

Office: 503-282-4000



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RE/MAX
2717 NE Broadway
Portland, OR
503-282-4000


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Housing Market

A Casual Conversation…

Thursday, February 23rd, 2012

 

I stopped in yesterday, to drop my taxes with my accountant at, The Epstein Group.  As you might expect of a conversation between a Realtor and an accountant, we quickly got to market conditions and potential tax changes that may effect the market.

 Victor Epstein, as would befit an accountant, has always been very good about keeping up on changes and potential changes in the tax code, and how they might effect his clients.  I am thankful for his attentiveness as I often eke a good little tidbit out of a discussion with him.

 ”Tell your investor clients to sell”, he said.  Now mind you, I am a “buy and hold” sort of a gal, so those are pretty strong words.  The longer version goes something like this.  The “Bush tax cuts” are set to expire, and may or may not be extended.  The Obama health plan (of which I am an ardent supporter) is scheduled to be funded in part by a slight increase in the capital gains tax, and Oregon may be taking a bit from folks’ capital gains also.

 What Victor was saying, or what my conservative ears heard, was that taxes on capital gains (such as those incurred by the sale of investment property) taxes will be going up.  And though we think the real estate prices will be increasing in the next few years, we expect increases in capital gains taxes will outpace any increases in real estate prices.  So if you have an investment property you are planning to sell in the next few years, now may well be the time.  Call me.

 Oh, and take a second to go to Victor’s website and check out the “Irreverent” tab, showing the fictional accountants’ Hall of Fame.  And scroll down for songs about accountants.  Very fun.

So How is the Portland Market?

Sunday, May 15th, 2011

You know those bumper stickers, Keep Portland Weird?  Well the real estate market is helping to achieve that mission.The Portland real estate market is just plain weird. 

 Anecdotaly, my office and several others close in have been very hectic.  Many of our buyer clients have written offers ending up in multiple offer situations, losing out.  We’ve seen this both in the lower, first time buyer/investor price range, ($200,000- $300,000) and in the higher move-up range of $500,000 and up.

 Then, out comes the RMLS monthly report with the Portland market stats, which give few if any hints to the market we have been experiencing.  The ony sign of an improving market is that the average sales price came up slightly from March 2011 to April 2011 from $261,100 to $267,300.  The median price also came up from $215,000 to $219,400.

 But…both the number of both pending and closed sales are down, and the number of active listings on the market have increased a tad.

 We know the housing recovery will be long and slow, but …

 Click here too see the full Portland market report.

Predicting Price Reductions in Portland?

Sunday, May 8th, 2011

Trulia, one of the real estate data aggregators,  has  come out with a new, Home Offer Report.  The first report debuted March 31st, 2011;  the end of the first quarter of this year.  The report shows, by area and even zip code, how often prices of listed properties are reduced, what the average percentage of reductions is, and the probability of a second, or ensuing reduction.

Forbes, in conjunction with this report, issued a list of the top ten cities with  the biggest price discounts:

#1 Phoenix, AZ

#2 Mesa, AZ

#3 Minneapolis, MN

#4 Long Beach, CA

#5 Baltimore, MD

#6 Oakland, CA

#7 Las Vegas, NV

#8 Sacramento, CA

#9 San Diego, CA

#10 Tucson, AZ

You can read the full Forbes article here

To access the Trulia interactive map go here.  At a glance, I think the Trulia map looks reasonably accurate.  As this is the first iteration of the report, further reports will speak to accuracy.  Trulia projects this report will help buyers settle on offer prices by anticipating when and by how much a seller might reduce a property price.  I’m not sure the data will be quite  that accurate as every seller’s situation and motivation is different.  I do though, find it an interesting tool.

Pioneer of Mortgage Securitization Offers a Fix?

Friday, May 6th, 2011

Most of us are in agreement that the securitization of mortgages ( mortgage backed securities) played a large role in the recent  collapse of the housing market.  Now, some of the folks who brought us mortgage backed securities are offerring a fix.

 Dan Levy and Nadja Brandt, in a posting on Bloomberg, reference a plan by Lewis Ranieri where by banks offer assistance to homeowners, “Ranieri and Kenneth Rosen, a University of California economist and chairman of Rosen Consulting Group in Berkeley, published a five-point plan last month urging banks to reduce debt for qualified borrowers and recognize losses on second mortgages and home-equity lines of credit. They also favor having the mortgage market continue to be backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or a “successor entity.”

This plan differs from current loan modifications, which are based primarily on interest rate reduction and stabilization for homeowners who got in trouble with adjustable rate loans.  Ranieri’s  proposal, instead looks at debt reduction.  When the housing crisis hit a few years ago, a radical idea trotted out, was for banks to forgive the difference bewteen loan balances and current property values.  Presented now by “insiders”, and after a few years of foreclosures and short sales, this plan doesn’t seem “radical”at all.

New Portland Area Market Stats

Saturday, April 16th, 2011

Our multiple listing service just released the most recent market stats for March 2011.  Just as our office has been seeing a marked increase in activity, the region has also been doing more real estate business.

Both closed sales and pending sales are up from February 2011.  Comparing March 2011 to February 2011, closed sales jumped a whopping 50.4% while pending sales rose 26.5%.  Spring is the begining of our busy season and these numbers back that up.   My buyer clients have been bemoaning the lack of new inventory on the market.  It seems like they just don’t have that much to choose from.  They are right. There are fewer houses on the market than there have been since May 2010, with only 7.1 months of inventory.  Since January 2009 we’ve only seen inventory this low twice.  And in January 2009, our inventory was at 19.2 months!

Year to year, the numbers are down.  Closed sales are down 10.2% from March 2010 to March 2011. Pending sales for the same comparison are down 16.2%.  I am not surprised by this as last spring we were staring down the end of the homebuyer tax credit.  This created a bit of an artificial bump in real estate business.

Click here for a link to the Portland area report from RMLS.

My Rant About Short Sales; and it isn’t what you’d think

Friday, April 1st, 2011

Most of you by now are familiar with the term short sale; when the market value of a home for sale is less than the indebtedness.  Many realtors have ranted for a few years about the ineptness of the banks holding those loans in processing and responding to and closing short sale transactions.  This is not that rant.

Over time, the lenders holding the loans on short sale properties have figured out how to do them.  They have instituted processes and formulas allowing these transactions to be addressed on a predictable timeline with predictable milestones.  In addition, some government programs, HAFA and HAMP have added layers of steps and protections for sellers in this position.  Generally, and there will always be exceptions, short sales can move more quickly and smoothly than they did a few years ago.

This rant is about the plethora of real estate agents who consider themselves short sale specialists and the wild variety of medieval theories and processes these agents have put into play.  These “experts” see THEIR method as the best, even if it thwarts multiple listing service rules and regulations and may not be in the best interest of their client, the seller.  An aside; being a realtor can take a fair amount of confidence and ego, especially in marketing yourself.  But some of us have a hard time keeping our ego out of other people’s transactions (a whole different rant).

Here is MY short sale method, which of course, is the right one ;)    A buyer writes their offer subject to the approval of the underlying lender.   The seller may counter that offer to achieve what they hope is the best price.  That best price offer is then submitted to the lender for approval.  No other offers are solicited, the house is marked as having  a pending offer.   Once the lender approval is obtained, the transaction becomes “normal” with timelines for inspection and such commencing at that time.

Some of the other schemes out there, that drive me crazy.

1)  Multiple offers are collected and forwarded to the underlying lender at various times, while the listing remains active in RMLS.  My rant: the poor lender is trying to process this file, but keeps having to reset the tasks and such as these offers come in; clogging the system and slowing things down.  In addition, buyers think properties are available when they may well not be.   Who knows?  Our multiple listing service has a spot  to show whether or not any offers have been received which can at least give agents and their buyers a hint that it might not be available.  Many agents decline to use this field.  Another note; sellers needing to do a short sale often have the clock ticking on an impending foreclosure.  Getting a short sale approved quickly is often a huge priority for a seller.  Good buyers who are ready to buy and pre-approved may not wait around for this ongoing process; often leaving lowballers and those of questionable financial ability to ride it out.  Getting approval, with foreclosure looming and having a sale fall apart on the buyer’s financing is not in the seller’s interest either.

Another method: The seller doesn’t sign a buyer’s offer.  One or more unsigned offers are sent to the underlying lender.  Unsigned contracts don’t bind anyone to anything. So the sending multiple offer issues above are compounded by nothing being binding.  Lord knows what the lender is approving or how the buyers may or may not be feeling once they get a response.  This has the same issues as above.

In approving short sales, most lenders limit, usually to zero, the amount of money or assets a seller can take from the transaction.  The lender doesn’t want to take a loss while the seller walks away with $’s.  The lender does, then, look at the seller’s assets and if there is cash lying around,may require the seller to pay some of that (retirement accounts are generally exempted).   Many houses, when they were bought, had personal property as a part of the transaction; that cool stainless steel fridge,  wolf range etc.  Now, when going into a short sale, some agents are suggesting the seller remove or hide these appliances from the lender. The seller can then sell these separately and pocket the money.  This feels a bit like loan fraud; hiding something froma  lender is rarely good.  I don’t wajt any part of one of these transactions.  So in a sense, those houses aren’t really on the market either.

As a managing broker who actively lists and sells real estate I see new versions of short sale “prowess” daily, and long ofor a simpler time.

Quickie Property Value Tools in Portland, Oregon

Thursday, March 17th, 2011

There are lots of ways to look at home prices, most of which have some value or grounding in reality (and realty, ha ha).  I recently learned of fhfa.gov, the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s tool House Price Index (HPI).  The HPI looks at where the property is, when it was purchased and for how much.  Rather than considering specific information about the property (square feet, bedrooms, baths etc), the HPI looks as the average appreciation (and depreciation) rates for that area of the country.

Another tool many folks use is zillow, which does look at property specific information in calculating a “zestimate”.  Zillow’s equation is complicated, and may well use information from or similar to fhfa.gov. 

Realtors use property specific information in addition to neighborhood pricing trends in preparation of a comparative market analysis.  We look for similar properties in your neighborhood which have sold recently.

In comparing these three resources I have looked at my home.  fhfa.gov estimates my home is worth $381,878.  Surprisingly, zillow says $380,000.  Thye market analysis I did three weeks ago (before I looked at either zillow of fhfa.gov) came in at $369,900.  What I know, that zillow doesn’t, and fhfa doesn’t care about, is that my house is on a busy street.  Nonetheless, I am pleasantly surprised how close the values are, using these three different methods.

In preparing market analyses for my clients, I always check zillow, from a curiosity perspective.  From here on out I’ll be comparing fhfa.gov estimates also.  It will be interesting to see if other properties’ estimates are so closely clustered.  To see how your home compares, check the tool websites I link to above.  If you are in the Portland area, give me a call for a personalized comparative market analysis.

The on-line version of baking cookies and fresh bark dust…

Friday, February 25th, 2011

We’ve all read, heard and seen tactics for making your home show its best when trying to sell; bake cookies, declutter, plant primroses etc.  Yahoo Finance recently posted an interesting article about how to spoil a home description.  The article got me thinking about home much today’s home martketing has to do with online presence.  Realtors and savvy sellers are mindful of how a home should best appear on line; whether it be remax.com, facebook or realtor.com.   Often the timing can be tricky getting the listing of a house up and going.  Sellers usually need to finish a few last minute repairs and tweaks, and only after that do you want to take the photos.  And it is great to have a permanent “flyer” attached to the sign to minimize the use of paper flyers…for which the photos are required.  And so on.

Because of this timing issue, some listing agents will put a listing in the multiple listing service (which feeds to many other websites) without having photos.  This is a HUGE pet peeve of mine, and a great disservice to the sellers.  We all know a listing gets its most attention in the first week it is on the market, and we all know potential buyers will click away from a pictureless listing faster than Charlie Sheen takes to a bottle of scotch.  So all that early market time exposure is wasted.  Nevermind that professional photos were in the works and hit the MLS system later .  The opportunity for exposure is gone. 

Okay, I’ll get off that soap box, and on to the next thing.  Please don’t make the property sound SO appealing that we all know it cant be true.  Once I’m feeling cynical about your house, it is pretty hard to get me back on the bandwagon as an advocate for the property.  Similarly, a property description should be written with managing expectations in mind.  The property should sound good enough to generate interest, but not so good that my buyer clients will be disappointed with the real thing.  If it has a nice vista, call it that, don’t go on and on about the fabulous view.  And that cozy master suite upstairs; please don’t call it massive or expansive.  And  the do it yourself glue down linoleum tiles do not a remodeled kitchen make.

Along that same line, wording in descriptions that make it sound as if the property was flipped can be a big turn off. While buyers do like a house in good condition and love the smell of new, they don’t want to buy or feel like they are buying, the property with the blow and go paint job over the old 70′s panelling.  Be specific about any upgrades and remodeling,  especially focusing on systems and less on cosmetics.

Today’s buyers are well educated, know it is a buyer’s market and are VERY conscious of not falling for a sales smooze or snow job.  High quality presentation of the assets of a house, showing it in its best light is the goal.  If you want ideas of how to best present your home get in touch with me for a consultation.

Portland Area Market Information

Tuesday, February 22nd, 2011

Some say Portland is a bit behind the times; especially my friends in the metropolitan Los Angeles and New York areas.  As economies around the country start to pick up, it appears Portland may indeed be a bit behind the times.

According to the RE/MAX National Housing Report,  which compiles data from 54 distinct U.S. markets, the year to year sales difference has improved by a slight 0.7 percent.  That same report shows 17 markets with an increase in year to year sales prices.

Locally, the average sales price in January 2011 declined 11.9 percent from January 2011.  According to the RMLS Market Action, average sales prices for Southeast, Northeast and North Portland were $182,000, $255,000 and 206,000 respectively.  Market times have lengthened in this slower market with Southeast, Northeast and North Portland market times being 124 days, 119 days and 135 days respectively.  For the majority of my career, market times were below 70 days. Interestingly, buyers think a house has been on the market “a long time” at around 60 days, and expect price concessions from sellers since it “hasn’t sold”.

Interest rates have bumped up quite a bit in the last month, with Bank of America,  offering a thirty year fixed rate loan hovering just below 5%.  This bump in rates may well, in the short run, motivate buyers to buy now before rates go any higher.  But interest rate hikes cause buyers to have less buying power, which in the long run puts a damper on the housing market.

It will be interesting to see what February’s numbers look like.  Check back!

Portland’s Eastside Market Update

Friday, October 22nd, 2010

In general the Portland real estate market continued on a slow decline in September, both when compared with the previous month and the previous year.  

Below are a few statistics often used to gauge the real estate market.  These statistics are with regard to North, Northeast, and Southeast Portland.  All data is provided by RMLS.

Short Sales and REO’s

We hear about lots of short sale and foreclosure listings on the market.   Below we can see, of 364 closed transactions in September, the number of distressed properties that sold were:

Bank Owned Short Sales
North… 8 = 2.1% North… 1 = 0.3%
NE… 21 = 5.7% NE… 8 = 2.1%
SE… 48 = 13% SE… 12 = 3.2%

Interest rates continue to be fabulously low… Compared to last month, interest rates are a bit lower.  For a 30 year fixed loan, the best rate I could find today was a 4.374% APR compared to 4.510% last month.  For a 15 year fixed, the best APR I could find was for 3.469% today, quite a bit lower than last months rate of 3.811%.  Current rates, however, are up from the near record setting levels we saw last week. 

We also track the ratio between list price and closed sales price.  For much of may 20 plus year career, listings have sold within about 98% of their list price.  These days things are a bit different.   In Southeast Portland, over the past 12 months, listings have sold for an average of 95.5% of their list price, in Northeast Portland 94.5% and in North Portland, 93.7 %.

 And of course, how long properties are staying on the market is of interest.  For much of my career, Portland’s inner neighborhoods have had a market time between 60 and 65 days.    In September, sales that closed in North Portland had been on the market an average of 92 days, as compared to 104 days for houses in Northeast Portland and 106 days in Southeast Portland.

Lastly, average sales prices for 2010, (January through September) were $230,600 in North Portland, $239,100 in Southeast Portland and $285,000 in Northeast Portland.

 Let me know if you have questions about a specific area or would like a sense of how your house has faired the storm.

Market Recap

  • Avg. Sales Price: $276,800

  • Avg. Days on Market: 165

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