Courtesy of ARMLS Aug 2011
THE ARMLS PENDING PRICE INDEX™
The ARMLS Pending Price Index (PPI) is a metric unique to ARMLS which focuses on pending sales in the MLS system. By focusing on pending prices of properties yet to close, ARMLS is able to forecast pricing trends ninety days into the future. Naturally the predictive accuracy diminishes with time as fewer properties make up the pending pool.
The PPI scorecard last month was off by 3.4%, predicting an average sales price for July of $158,200: the actual was $152,800. The median of $112,000 predicted last month came in only 1.79% off the mark at $110,000.
This month’s prediction calls for a slight rise in the median sales price to $110,000 in Au-gust, followed by a decline to $105,000 in September and a drop again to $98,000 in October. The median sales price has not dropped below $100,000 this decade, but the market seems to be edging closer and closer to that benchmark. The average sales price predicted for the next ninety days is downward for all three months: $152,800 for August, $144,700 for September and $134,900 in October.
The overall impression is that pricing is going to continue to languish. It took many months to get to where we are, and unfortunately, it will take many months to climb back.

PPI SUPPLEMENT
The PPI Supplement spotlights the number of pending contracts added to the MLS system in the current month. Data represents the average and median pending sales prices as well as units and their percentage of the total pending units for June in each specific price range.
Data is graphically presented in four month increments so that the reader is alerted to changes in the behavior of properties in given price ranges over time. July pendings showed an uptick in the below $50,000, $100,000-$150,000 and $200,000-$250,000 ranges. Metrics for properties above $500,000 are delivered in chart format only. As the market recovers we should observe an increasing percentage of pendings in the higher ranges. Over time such sales will eventually move the actual median and average sales prices to higher levels.


COMMENTARY
A recap of STAT’s good news this month focuses on the six day drop in days on market, continued ebb in the new listing flow, decline in the total inventory pool and the steep, steady downward trajectory of foreclosures pending, all supportive of the coming recovery. Disappointing, yet no surprise, is the state of Valley pricing which remains singularly lackluster. The ARMLS PPI predictions forecast more of the same for the next ninety days, with average pricing in the $152,800 to $134,900 range and median pricing hovering in the $110,000 to $98,000 range. At the recent REAL ESATE FORWARD event, sponsored by ARMLS and the Phoenix Business Journal, panelist Michael Orr, Founder and President of The Cromford Report, perhaps said it best: “Pricing right now is like driving across Kansas and trying to find the lowest point.”
Looking around the country it is not hard to find cities whose median prices actually make the Valley’s look good. A recent CNN Money report listed cities with low median prices, such Lancing, Michigan ($64,400), Toledo, Ohio ($64,900), South Bend, Indiana ($68,700), Akron, Ohio ($74,900), Ocala, Florida ($75,400), Dayton, Ohio ($78,000), Cumberland, Maryland ($80,700), Grand Rapids, Michigan ($81,100) and Decatur, Illinois ($81,300)1, reminding us that our pricing dilemma could look worse.
STAT has reported for many months that jobs are the key to recovery. Dr. Ted Jones, Chief Economist for Stewart Title Guaranty Company, provided the national perspective at REAL ES-TATE FORWARD. He reported that the label “a jobless recovery” attached to the current economy is an oxymoron. Jones reasoned that without jobs there can be no recovery. The Valley lost 220,000 jobs since July 2007 and gained only 5,000 in May.2 At this pace, recovery is 4-5 years off, if the population remains at 2011 levels. Jones reported that we need 1.25-1.5 jobs per housing unit to return to normal.
ARMLS is now tracking weekly Valley new job postings on the three major career websites, Ca-reer.com, Monster.com, and Jobing.com. A graph of the postings is available each Saturday morning in its new publication, ARMLS REWIND, a weekly recap of news and emails from the pre-ceding week. This metric will serve as a barometer to anticipate job growth.
Other panelists at REAL ESTATE FORWARD counseled that now is not the time to buy just one house, but rather two or three. The current affordability of the Valley’s housing market is unprecedented, and for those with the cash and the credit to act, the investment is sound and bound to pay off in the future. For now many factors are affecting jobs over which we have no control, e.g., oil prices, acts of God, general business confidence, etc. All panelists predicted 2013-2014 when asked when they expected the Valley to recover. We can hardly wait!
1 http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2011/real_estate/1105/gallery.cheapest_housing_markets/ 2 Bureau of Labor Statistics