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John Bowman
Realtor

    DRE #01853768

Direct: (408) 679-1112

Office: 408-445-5102



Company Info

Coldwell Banker
1096 Blossom Hill Rd. Unit 200
San Jose, CA
408-445-5102

DRE #01853768


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Posts Tagged ‘housing market’

Rose Garden Far Outpaced San Jose Sister Zips in 2011

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

As a “hyper-local” Realtor, I follow seven San Jose zip codes in five MLS areas far more closely than others; in my opinion, an agent can’t spread himself much thinner and still give quality service to his buyer-and-seller clients.

I even pay Mountain View-based Altos Research to help me break these zip codes down into four price-based quartiles and to update these statistics on a weekly basis so that my clients can stay two steps ahead of the competition. Based both on this research and on anecdotal evidence, I expect 2012 to bring both a market bottom and the beginning of a modest recovery to most of my neighborhoods. I”ll explain why in a later post; first, let’s look back on 2011 and see how these seven zips (I call them my “seven sisters”) performed price-wise, compared to each other and to San Jose as a whole.

In a nutshell: The 95126 zip – which comprises the Rose Garden, Shasta Hanchett Park and some fringe urban neighborhoods – easily outstripped its six real-estate siblings. (more…)

Stalemate Over: San Jose Prices Headed Down Again

Tuesday, December 6th, 2011


There’s no longer any doubt: The nearly 7-month long sideways move in San Jose real estate prices is over – and the long-expected breakout is to the downside.

This is no surprise. In a post last month, I pointed out that a move to the downside in median list prices had become likely, since the window for the typical fall surge in activity had passed – making it more likely that the stalemate would be broken in favor of buyers, since mid-November usually ushers in several weeks worth of lower home prices. (more…)

Holiday Hibernation May Not Benefit Buyers or Sellers

Tuesday, November 22nd, 2011

It happens every year and 2011 already is no exception: San Jose home inventory drops off a cliff during the last few months of the year, not to recover until around Super Bowl Sunday or later.

I’ll get into the reasons for this annual hibernation shortly, but this year’s pattern raises a point that should be mentioned first:

Both buyers and sellers should think twice before leaving the market this time of year for this simple reason: Any buyers and sellers who stay in the market during the holidays are likely to be highly motivated, and at the same time will be facing less competition from others of their ilk.

(more…)

Cambrian, Rose Garden Zips Head in Opposite Direction

Friday, November 18th, 2011

“When you come to a fork in the road, take it.” — Yogi Berra

Two of San Jose’s more desirable zip codes – 95124 and 95126 – came to a fork this year and appear to have taken divergent paths.

Median list prices in 95124, which comprises a large portion of the Cambrian area, posted a typical seasonal gain in the spring, but topped out and reversed in time to maintain its secular 3-year trend of lower highs – which means it seems headed for a new secular low come January or February. (more…)

Here’s Why Knowing the Local Market is a Full-Time Job

Thursday, October 13th, 2011

So far this year, I’ve personally inspected more than 400 homes for sale, inside and out.

That number will exceed 500 homes by year-end. I will see about 300 of those homes on the weekly brokers tour, and the balance while previewing homes for clients, and as comparables for the 52 open houses I hold each year.

This hands-on approach helps me hang some meat on the statistics-based skeleton that I continuously construct with the help of my market research partner, Altos Research of Mountain View. It’s part of a three-pronged strategy that keeps me on top of the markets I serve like few others can ever be: (more…)

New Category for San Jose: Frustrated Buyer’s Market

Monday, September 12th, 2011

Quick quiz: When is a buyer’s market not much of a buyer’s market?

  • A. When very few buyers are in a position to take advantage of it
  • B. When it has virtually nothing to do with supply and demand
  • C. Both “A” and “B” are correct.

The best answer, at least in the San Jose area, is “C.”

Even without all-time low mortgage rates, five years worth of falling prices is proof enough that we’re in a buyer’s market. Unfortunately, those same falling prices have left the usual majority of buyers – those who already own a home and need to sell it in order to “move up” – either under water on their mortgages or without enough equity to cover the down payment on a more expensive home.

(more…)

Default Spectre Spooks Santa Clara County Homebuyers

Monday, August 1st, 2011

Sales of single-family homes in Santa Clara County fell off a cliff last month, sinking from 1,172 in June to 829 in July. It was the first month sales dropped below 1,000 since February.

Taken alone, that 29% swoon wouldn’t be all that surprising, as sales typically cool off during the weeks following the Independence Day holiday. What makes it so worrisome is that the sales figure also is 22% below the 1,057 homes that sold here in July 2010 – a year-over-year decrease that’s a lot harder to explain away.

I’ll take a shot at it, though: A full month of highly publicized debate in Washington D.C. over whether or not to raise the U.S. debt ceiling – and the accompanying panic over the (very real) possibility that the nation would default on its debt for the first time in history – took a huge toll on the psyche of prospective homebuyers here. That, plus a month that saw a steady parade of  disappointing economic reports and weakening consumer confidence. (more…)

Can Social Networking Save San Jose Housing Market?

Tuesday, July 19th, 2011

Monday’s announcement by Cisco Systems that it will cut 6,500 jobs would be even more troubling for the San Jose housing market if it didn’t come against the backdrop of far more positive hiring news among Silicon Valley technology firms.

Silicon Valley employers expect a 15 percent surge in tech jobs over the next two years, according to a study released Tuesday. The study found that 60 percent of the valley’s information and communications technology companies expect to have more full- and part-time employees a year from now. The dark cloud inside that silver lining is that many of the new jobs will require advanced training and high-level skills that might be hard to find, according to the study’s authors and others. Lower-skilled jobs continue to be shipped off-shore.

Meanwhile, some tech experts say Cisco’s problems may be more company-related, rather than symptoms of broader industry troubles. They say the company has expanded into numerous markets that are outside its core business and is now paying the price.

(more…)

Triple Dip May be on the Way for Prices in San Jose

Friday, July 15th, 2011

This graph reveals some good news, some bad news and some potential ugly news for homeowners in San Jose:

First, the bad news: As regular readers already know, in terms of median list prices San Jose completed the dreaded “double dip” in mid January, retracing the previous secular low of early 2009.

Now for the good news: Median list prices almost immediately took advantage of the annual Super Bowl Bump to pull off a healthy 9% bounce off the new low, rising from $459,000 around Jan. 21 to $499,900 just three months later. (more…)

Introducing “Winner Winner, Chicken Dinner” Contest

Thursday, June 30th, 2011

I’ve labored long and hard over the past few months to build JohnBowmanHomes.com into the most informative, interesting, innovative, provocative and downright useful blog about San Jose real estate.

Were I President, I would consider donning a military flight suit, dropping onto the nearest aircraft carrier and proclaiming “Mission Accomplished.”

But that would be a wee bit premature. In order to complete its mission, your favorite San Jose real estate blog needs to become a two-way conversation!

That’s why I’ve introduced “Chat with John,” a feature (See right rail) that allows visitors to have a live conversation with me as long as I’m logged on – even if they don’t subscribe to any I.M. service.

And it’s why I’m now introducing “Winner Winner, Chicken Dinner,” a monthly contest in which I’ll award a $25 gift certificate to Sonoma Chicken Coop to the reader who posts the most insightful, interesting or entertaining comment on one of my articles.

(more…)

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