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John Bowman
Realtor

    DRE #01853768

Direct: (408) 679-1112

Office: 408-445-5102



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Coldwell Banker
1096 Blossom Hill Rd. Unit 200
San Jose, CA
408-445-5102

DRE #01853768


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Cambrian

The Window’s Open for Buyers in Cambrian’s 95124 Zip

Thursday, January 5th, 2012

It’s easy to see that Cambrian’s 95124 zip code has recently continued its 5-year trend toward lower annual highs – and lower annual lows.

The past three years look like virtual snapshots of each other, only with each new one moving to the bottom of the stack. There’s one other thing you should notice, as well, if you’re interested in living in the area, which includes the charming Cambrian Park neighborhood: During each of the past three years, median list prices have bounced by an average of 7 percent between early January and about late June.

Translated: If you’re planning to buy in this lovely area in 2012, you might save $35k-$40k by moving quickly, as opposed to waiting until the late-spring rush. (more…)

Cambrian Zip Fails to Break Trend of Lower Annual Highs

Thursday, August 25th, 2011

Despite a $50,000 advance from its January low, Cambrian’s 95124 zip code apparently will post its fifth consecutive lower annual high in terms of median list prices. That makes it entirely likely the popular zip also will post a “triple-dip” low sometime this winter, likely in late January or early February.

Click on the “Max” view of the above interactive flash graph, and you’ll see the seasonal price bump starting a downward turn, right on schedule. The nation’s economic news being what it is, any sort of significant fall rally seems highly unlikely. (more…)

Cambrian Charmer Comes With Huge Lot, Great Schools

Sunday, June 12th, 2011

Sunday’s open house is a great opportunity to own a turnkey home with lots of land (nearly 10,000 square feet) on a street that’s seeing many property improvements. Oh – it’s also in the awarding-winning Cambrian School District.

I hesitate to use the term “potential,” because that’s usually real-estate code for “fixer-upper” and this home has updated kitchens and baths and lots of designer finishes such as crown molding and gleaming hardwood floors; nonetheless, if you drop by my open house June 12 from 1-4, you’ll recognize nearly unlimited potential.

For more details, go to:

2949 LANTZ AVE, San Jose, 95124.

Consider Cambrian 95124 for Great Public-School Values

Thursday, May 26th, 2011

I hold a lot of open homes in Almaden Valley and the vast majority of prospective buyers tell me the main reason they’re looking in 95120 is for the excellent public schools. Many of them also suffer sticker shock at Almaden home values: Average list price of $1.07 million even in today’s depressed market.

Many of these buyers also are surprised when I tell them they can get equally good public elementary and middle schools in nearby Cambrian (95124) for an average of $400,000 less ($671,407). Before I prove it, a caveat: The main reason for the price gap is the relative size of the homes. In Almaden, it’s 4-or-5 bedrooms and 2415 square feet and in Cambrian, it’s 3-or-4 bedrooms and 1554 square feet. The gap in price-per-square foot of list prices is actually quite small, $412 in Almaden and $396 in Cambrian.

That said, here are the comparisons for selected elementary-school and middle-school API test scores:

Almaden

  • Los Alamitos Elementary (916)
  • Graystone Elementary (958)
  • Simonds Elementary (968)
  • Williams Elementary (972)
  • Castillero Middle (804)
  • Bret Harte Middle (909)

Cambrian

  • Bagby Elementary (924)
  • Carlton Elementary (930)
  • Guadalupe Elementary (930)
  • Alta Vista Elementary (938)
  • Union Middle School (892)
  • Dartmouth Middle (900)

Before you jump down my throat, yes, I’m aware that some of these schools’ service areas don’t fit comfortably within certain zips. Guadalupe, for instance, is located within 95120 and serves many western Almaden households. But it’s also part of the 95124-based Union School District and serves some Cambrian homes. Similarly, Dartmouth Middle is located in 95118 and serves both Almaden and Cambrian students.

My point is that elementary and middle school scores in the two areas are virtually a statistical dead heat.

High schools are a different story, but I would point out that Leigh High School (816), which serves many Cambrian homes, has pulled virtually even with Pioneer High (825), which serves a lot of homes in Almaden.

So, if public schools are important to you but your budget is closer to $750,000 than $1 million – and you don’t necessarily need 2,000 square feet or more – Cambrian is full of great neighborhoods and well-built (often fully updated) homes.

And don’t forget, you can research both API scores and demographics of any California public school by finding the school house down the right rail of this blog and clicking where it says “Click here to get school test scores.” Duh.

Will Cambrian’s 95124 Zip Post List-Price “Three-Peat?”

Sunday, April 17th, 2011

If you click on the “Max” view of the interactive flash chart below, you’ll see that even during a secular downtrend, Cambrian’s 95124 zip code has pulled off seasonal median list-price surges of $80,000 or more in each of the past two years:

Run you cursor across the chart and you’ll see that in 2009, the rise began in February and ran well into August, while last year, the nadir fell in January and the peak arrived in June.

Though we’ve seen some choppiness in the past few weeks, the trend is showing signs of repeating again this year. And with the local economy beginning to hit on all cylinders and mortgage rates remaining near generational lows, it’s hard to imagine a reason why this year won’t bring a “three-peat.”

What do you think?

Seasonal Price Moves Can Defeat Disbelieving Buyers

Thursday, March 24th, 2011

Among the hardest concepts for buyers to accept are the wild seasonal swings in list prices that occur every year in Silicon Valley even during a long-term secular trend that’s headed in the opposite direction. Below is one of several dozen charts I could have drawn to illustrate:

This chart is for condo prices in 95124, a zip that comprises much of Cambrian and areas along the Campbell boundary. As you can see, the 3-year secular trend is down, down and down. Nonetheless, you can also see price swings of $60k to $100k from winter/spring bottoms to summer highs; this year, in fact, has already seen a $60k bump from the January low and we’re nowhere near the typical annual market top.

The ramifications of this are immense – including the obsolescence of price “comps” older than a few weeks. Think about the possible result: Not only can a prospective buyer lose a great home because he wrote a low-ball offer based on obsolete comps, but it’s likely that if he finds an equally suitable home just a few weeks later, the price will be $10k to $20k higher. The seasonal window has closed and by the time the next one opens, there’s a very good chance that the lowest-in-history mortgage rates will be up a half-a-point or more (equating to another price increase of $10k or more.)

It would be easy to write these median price moves off to just a change in the mix of homes changing hands – except that the price-per-square-foot line shows similar and coinciding trends.

In a previous post, I charted similar price bumps of $75 to $80k in Cambrian single-family home prices over the past couple of years. This is not a one-off deal, ladies and gentlemen. The smart buyer is going to grasp these seasonal moves and use them to guide both the price and timing of his offers.

Ignoring these swings can cost you more than money, but also the chance to buy the home you wanted most.

I’ve teamed up with Altos Research to make it possible for you to stay on top of these neighborhood price swings. Here’s how:

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Immaculate Cambrian Home Comes With Great Schools

Sunday, March 20th, 2011

Sunday’s open home is on an established, quiet street of well-maintained homes in a convenient Cambrian neighborhood. As a bonus for families, it’s also served by Oster Elementary School (881 API) and Dartmouth Middle School (900).

In addition, you’ll find that the owner has taken great pride in caring for this 1780-square-foot home and its landscaping. It’s ready to move in, with a comfortable feel to it. (At under $700,000, the price is equally comfortable.) You’ll also find quality grocery and other shopping within a short walk. For more details, click here:

1578 CALLE DE AIDA DR.

The best way to feel confident in your home purchase (or sale) is to know that you understand the local real estate market better than other buyers and sellers. That’s the way my clients feel, and here’s why:

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For an in-depth look at what’s happening in Cambrian’s two zip codes, be sure to read my previous post.

Cambrian’s Two Zip Codes Headed in Opposite Direction

Thursday, March 17th, 2011

On Jan. 30, I advised prospective homebuyers to “Move now to save $$$ in Cambrian’s 95124 zip,” an idea based on two consecutive $75k-$80k, January-to-June moves up in 2009 and 2010. So far, that advice is looking pretty good, as median list prices in 95124 are up by $24,000 since Feb. 1.

Now may be a good time for buyers interested in Cambrian to start considering 95118, based on what’s happened to prices in the two zips so far this year:

In 95124, prices peaked last June at $687,000 and bottomed around Jan. 7 about $100,000 lower, before bouncing back to the current $619,000. In 95118, the peak came three months later, in September, at $585,000 – and prices have yet to bottom, though a $3,000-or-so bounce to $538,000 in the past week could turn out to be the turning point.

Based on the longer-term view, however, I believe buyers should see the current swoon in 95118 as a window of opportunity, rather than a cause for alarm. The divergence of median list prices since early January has re-established a more typical price gap of $80,000-or-so between the two zips, and based on that I would expect the two to begin moving in tandem again sometime in the next three or four weeks.

And based on past seasonal trends, I believe that direction will be higher at least through mid-to-late June.

Get “Real-Time” Market Reports for Targeted Zip Codes

Wednesday, February 9th, 2011

Here’s a “real-time” market snapshot of Cambrian’s 95124 zip code. All figures are updated through Monday, Feb. 7:

This data represents a tiny fraction of the hyper-local, “live” market reports I can make available to you on a weekly or monthly basis – at no cost and no obligation. Imagine walking into open homes for sale in San Jose’s Cambrian, Blossom Valley, Almaden Valley, Willow Glen or the Rose Garden and feeling certain that you know more about that local market than the agent who’s holding the home open!

All you gotta do is go to the left rail, or the right rail, on your favorite San Jose real estate blog, look for the question “How Is The Market” and you can sign up for my real-time market reports. I guarantee you they slice and dice the neighborhood real-estate markets in more ways than you’ve ever seen before. (If not, I’ll give you your money back … like I said, they’re free!)

If you’ve ever looked at the fine print around the charts and graphs on most consumer real-estate sites, you know the data is 5-to-9 weeks old. The information you’ll receive in these reports is hours old.

Remember, it’s not always the most intelligent person who wins in the real-estate game, but it’s almost always the person with the best intelligence – and that’s what you’re getting here.

Buyers: Move Now to Save $$$ in Cambrian’s 95124 Zip

Sunday, January 30th, 2011

Buyers considering a purchase in Cambrian’s 95124 zip code could save $75-$80,000 by identifying a home and getting an offer accepted as soon as possible. That’s the only way I can read the below interactive flash chart:

If you view this chart in the 1-month time frame, you will see that median list prices bottomed about 2 weeks ago, while average days on the market peaked. These easily could be random blips — until you push the “max” button and extend the chart out over the past 6 years. At that point some striking patterns emerge.

One is a direct and inverse relationship between list prices and average days on the market. The market clearly peaked in this area in spring 2006 and bottomed – initially, at least – around Feb. 1, 2009. I say “initially” because in this zip code, a second bottom apparently occurred early in January. At the same time, a closer look shows that what appears to be a “triple-dip” in prices can more accurately be explained as largely seasonal variations: The February 2009 nadir has been followed by two years of prices essentially bouncing along the bottom, with typical annual variations.

The reason for my somewhat-brash-sounding opening statement: In a perfectly repeated scenario of the past two years, prices bottomed in early January and proceeded to peak by mid-to-late summer between $75-$80,000 higher. And that recent inflection point sure looks to me like the beginning of “Seasonal Bounce, Part Trois.”

You, of course, are free to read this chart however you like. That’s why I make them available to you.

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