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Archive for October 2009

The Recession is over! Or is it?

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

A recession is popularly defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, or declining output.  The government releases third-quarter gross domestic product figures on Thursday.  Many forecasters say they will show GDP growing at an annual rate of about 3 percent, validating a widely held belief among economists that the recession ended in June or July.  But nobody is sugar-coating the statistics, especially in the administration, which agrees with private surveys suggesting that unemployment will hover near 10 percent through most of next year.  James K. Galbraith, an economist at the University of Texas at Austin, suggests too much attention is given to when recessions technically begin and not enough to other measures of the economy.  “It’s just a word.  A recession technically lasts during negative quarters.  But that does’t mean you’re back to prosperity once you have positive growth.  You’re back to prosperity when the unemployment rate is back around 4 percent,” Galbraith said.  And that, he said, could take years.  The national recession may be technically over, but the state of the economy remains in the eyes of the beholder.  Or, as Ronald Reagan liked to say, a recession is when your neighbor loses his or her job.  Depression is when you lose yours.  (Deseret News)  Lets hope that this economic growth is at least a step in the right direction.

Is FHA in trouble?

Monday, October 26th, 2009

News reports raising concerns that FHA might be the next major financial institution requiring a government infusi0n are based on misinformed comparisons with what happened in the subprime market, FHA Commissioner David Stevens said in an exclusive interview with REALTOR Magazine this week.  At their peak, subprime lenders commanded 40 percent of the residential mortgage market by making low-downpayment, no-document, interest-only, and other types of exotic loans to high-risk borrowers, investors, and speculators, a market that FHA sat out entirely, says Stevens.  Today, it’s FHA that commands 40 percent of the market, but that’s where the comparison ends.  The agency makes 30-year, fixed-rate, fully documented loans only for households buying their primary residence.  For each loan, the agency maintains capital reserves for the full 30 years of the loan rather than for the 1-2 years required of banks.  Today, the agency has more than $30 billian in reserves, including a fully funded loan-loss reserve.  All the talk in the media about reserves dipping below a 2-percent required threshold is about a secondary account that’s above and beyond the agency’s primary reserve.  Those two accounts together represent more than 4 percent of insurance in force, he says.  An acturarial audit of FHA finances due out in a few weeks from a non-governmental auditor is expected to find that FHA has sufficient capital to cover all forecasted losses, even assuming further declines in home prices, says Stevens. (Robert Freedman, Senior Editor, REALTORS Magazine)

Getting the Tax Credit Extended: Outlook

Thursday, October 15th, 2009

What are the chances of getting the first-time home buyer tax credit extended, particularly before its expiration Dec. 1?  No one can know that, of course, but what’s clear is that leadership in Congress wants it extended–and if you have the leadership on board, you’re in a stong position.  Yet with health care reform consuming Congress’ attention, even the leadership faces a challenge ensuring the tax credit gets the consideration it deserves.  After sitting down with Linda Goold, NAR’s director of tax policy, and Samuel Whitfield, an NAR legislative representative, I learned the tax credit has really been the economic recovery’s workhorse.  The IRS says 1.4 million households have used the credit.  What’s more, a number of independent looks at the credit, including one by Economy.com (owned by Moody’s) and Campbell Surveys, estimated that between 350,000 and 400,000 home purchases would not have happened without the credit.  NAR has come up with a similar estimate.  Goold and Whitfield say there’s bipartisan support for extension, and NAR is on Capitol Hill daily reminding lawmakers that the clock is running.  But it’s coming down to the wire.  (Robert Freedman, senior editor, REALTOR Magazine)  I would like to see it extended.  I would also like to see it expanded to include all home buyers rather than just first-time home buyers.   I think the economy still needs the boost.  I hope Congress doesn’t get so wrapped up with health care that they neglect other important matters.

Homebuyer Tax Credit – Best Tool?

Friday, October 9th, 2009

The best available tool for sustaining the still-fragile housing market is the $8,000 homebuyer tax credit, and it is essential that Congress extend the credit into 2010, the National Association of Realtors testified at a hearing of the U.S. House Small Business Committee today (Oct.7, 2009).  The tax credit expires November 30.  NAR Regional Visce President Joseph L. Canfora also told the panel that a major stumbling block for consumers has been the implementation of appraisal processes spurred by the Home Valuation Code of Conduct, which is causing delays in closings, as well as cancelled sales that led to artificially low existing-home sales numbers for August, reported last month.  “The credit is working, ” Canfor said, pointing out that the 355,000 to 400,000 transactions directly attributable to the credit make a significant dent in the housing inventory and will help to stabilize home prices.  Further, the credit has provided a huge indirect benefit to local governments, shoring up property tax bases in particularly hard-hit areas  Further, NAR has estimated that every home purchase pumps into the recovering economy about $63,000 – the equivalent of one new job added to the employment figures.  But, Canfora said, the threat of more foreclosures coming to the market caused by mortgage rate resets, job losses, and by lender’s unburdening themselves of additional properties to take advantage of today’s more stabilized prices could disrupt the fragile recovery. (National Association of Realtors Magazine)

Market Recap

  • Avg. Sales Price: $213,204

  • Avg. Days on Market: 99

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