The Housing Trends eNewsletter contains the latest information from the National Association of REALTORS®, the U.S. Census Bureau and Realtor.org reports, videos, key market indicators and real estate sales statistics, a video message by a nationally recognized economist, maps, mortgage rates and calculators, consumer articles, plus local neighborhood information and more.

Please click here to view the MARCH-2012 Newsletter Housing Trends eNewsletter.

If you are interested in determining the value of your home, click the Home Evaluator link for a free evaluation report.

If you ask a child what they want to be when they grow up, they usually have grand ideas. It’s unlikely you’ll hear them say, ‘I want to be a drug addict, homeless or have no family.’  It’s time to regain the optimism and excitement of seeing dreams come true.

There’s a sense of power and achievement in reaching a goal and it enables you to dream bigger. It’s a natural part of our human nature to cheer on those who reach and attain a goal. Just look at how our culture idolizes great achievements.  Our spirits are lifted when we see underdogs become champions in movies like Rocky, Miracle or Rudy.

My personal goal was to run a marathon by the time I was 30. The experience was so much more than just an achievement,  I checked it off my bucket list. For someone like me, who has never been athletic, the ability to achieve the “impossible” only sparked a desire to push higher and farther in other areas of my life — areas which I had never pursued, due to lack of belief in myself.  I realized that achieving goals does so much more than provide a fleeting feeling of accomplishment; it becomes the springboard for thinking bigger and realizing true success.

As I research business planning each year, I fail to find one that is appropriate for real estate agents. I don’t mean that to be negative, it’s simply that most business plans are built to be all-encompassing for a professional entrepreneur and include things like a SWOT analysis, studying the market and knowing your competition. While I believe these are important and a lot of agents have a great set of skills, I also recognize that most by nature are sales-oriented and not engineered to look at their business with the eyes of a business manager. This is why I’ve created a quick, simple plan that hits some of the most important highlights and yet provides an opportunity to measure results. It’s more like an enhanced version of SMART goals (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Timely).

Follow these simple steps and you’re on your way to discovering a better year and a reason to celebrate your success by the end of 2012!

1) Find your motivation – The most important part of reaching a goal is keeping the purpose at the forefront of your thoughts. Knowing your motivation will keep you moving forward even when the going gets tough. Start by writing down the answers to these questions.

• What do you want your career to look like this year?
• What will it do to improve your life when you achieve success?
• Why is it important for you to succeed?
• What will I do when (not if) I face challenges? (Decide how you will respond and overcome)

By developing the skill of internal motivation, you can pursue success more easily. That’s not to say you shouldn’t reward yourself for reaching your goals, but the skill developed now will serve you for the rest of your life. It’s not realistic to count on life and others to reward you for your hard work, so find value in your own personal satisfaction of a job well done or a personal achievement reached.

2. Set measurable and attainable goals – Be realistic with yourself and write it down. Don’t plan to double your income unless you have specific changes you are implementing to create that kind of success. In real estate, I like to have my agents work through the numbers backwards if their goal is income-related. It looks something like this:

• How much money do you want to earn? (It helps if you have a spending plan to determine what you need to earn first)
• What is your average commission per closing?
• How many sales do you need to close to achieve the income? (You may want to break this down further to determine how many listings and sales you want)
• How many sellers and buyers do you need to reach this goal? (I recommend using a “prospect-to-sale” ratio of 25, so multiply the number of sales by 25 to determine how many leads you need)
• Now break that number down into a monthly, weekly and daily number so you have a clear picture of what you will create.

Example – If John wants to earn $100,000 and his average commission is $4,000, then he needs 25 sales to reach his goal. In order to reach 25 sales, we are estimating he needs 625 prospects. Now let’s also estimate that John already has 100 people in his database, so he only needs to generate 525 leads. While that may seem like a lot, the reality is, it is less than 1.5 people per day and there are hundreds of ways to generate leads on a daily basis: from wearing a name badge and handing out business cards to having a major marketing campaign. This is where rubber meets the road. Ingenuity and hard work separate the dreamers from the achievers! (Feel free to contact me for a list of income-generating ideas if you get stuck on how to implement a weekly or monthly plan of action to achieve these contacts)

3. Monitor Success – The final step is to measure your results. I recommend adding a weekly and monthly appointment to your calendar to provide a check-up. Take the time to see if you’ve added enough people to your database and also to track how many referrals, sales and closings you accumulate. In addition to monitoring statistics, take time each month to reflect on what worked well the previous month and think about one thing you can implement the next month to improve your business. Sometimes discovering ways to be more effective, reduce costs or improve sales skills can drastically impact your business.

We often get caught up working in our business and neglect to take time to work on our business. I’ve found that attending seminars, reading books, researching housing data, attending a networking group or volunteering makes me more confident, focused and provides opportunity to connect with more people.  So take time to think outside the box. When you work hard and implement your plan, the numbers will take care of themselves.

We can only control what we do, so don’t become discouraged if the results don’t happen as quickly or easily as you expect. It’s also important that you monitor your mentality and expectations. In addition, I highly recommend finding a mentor and scheduling, at minimum, a quarterly meeting to review your goals, actions and results. This accountability will help inspire you to keep going even when you are challenged; the added benefit of having wise counsel may help you find ways to improve your plan and activities.

Success can look like many things, so find your motivation and the goal that will improve your life and don’t forget to focus on how the results will benefit you. Some of my goals have been simply setting healthier boundaries with my clients or gaining additional education.  Self-improvement is always at the top of the list, as well as finding ways to serve others. Each time you experience success, you’ll find it easier to start the process, implement the plan and monitor the results. Colin Powell stated, “There are no secrets to success. It is the result of preparation, hard work, and learning from failure.”

I salute those who invest the time to create a better life for themselves and those around them. As Thoreau said, “Go confidently in the direction of your dreams. Live the life you have imagined.” Rather than looking back a year from now and wishing you had started on the path to success today, simply take the first step and be encouraged that you are closer to your dreams today than you were yesterday!

Please click on this link to view the Housing Trends DECEMBER – 2011 Newsletter http://christywalker.housingtrendsenewsletter.com 

The Housing Trends eNewsletter contains the latest information from the National Association of REALTORS®, the U.S. Census Bureau, Realtor.org reports and other sources. 

Housing Trends eNewsletter is filled with local and national real estate sales and price activity provided by MLSs and the National Association of Realtors, U.S. Census Bureau key market indicators, consumer videos, blogs, real estate glossary, mortgage rates and calculators, consumer articles, and REALTOR.com local community reports. 

If you are interested in determining the value of your home, click the “Home Evaluator” link for a free evaluation report: 

http://christywalker.housingtrendsenewsletter.com/dispContent.cfm?loadid=2&loadtype=0 

Sound decisions can only be made with accurate and reliable information, and I am happy to be a trusted resource for you. Thank you for the opportunity to provide you with this monthly eNewsletter, and I look forward to answering any questions you may have and to the opportunity to be your REALTOR® in the future.

The Housing Trends eNewsletter contains the latest information from the National Association of REALTORS®, the U.S. Census Bureau and Realtor.org reports, videos, key market indicators and real estate sales statistics, a video message by a nationally recognized economist, maps, mortgage rates and calculators, consumer articles, plus local neighborhood information and more.

Please click here to view the NOVEMBER – 2011 Newsletter Housing Trends eNewsletter.

If you are interested in determining the value of your home, click the Home Evaluator link for a free evaluation report.

As the Christmas & Hanukkah holidays approach (& other gift giving events), the giant Asian factories are kicking into high gear to provide Americans with monstrous piles of cheaply produced goods — merchandise that has been produced at the expense of American jobs.  This year let’s make a difference. This year, why don’t we Americans will give the gift of genuine concern for other Americans.   There is no longer an excuse that, at gift giving time, nothing can be found that is produced by American hands.

Yes, there is!  Join me this Christmas — Birth of a New Tradition

It’s time to think outside the box. Who says a gift needs to fit in a shirt box, wrapped in Chinese produced wrapping paper?

Everyone — yes, EVERYONE gets their hair cut.   How about gift certificates from your local American hair or nail salon or barber?

Gym membership?   It’s appropriate for all ages who are thinking about some health improvement.  How about a massage?  I would love that!

Who wouldn’t appreciate getting their car detailed?   Small, American owned detail businesses and car washes would love to sell you a gift certificate or a
book of gift certificates.

What teenager wouldn’t like a few certificates to the local pizzeria?
Does someone on your list want to learn how to play golf…tennis…horseback riding…sailing??  Think lessons.

Are you one of those extravagant givers who think nothing of plonking down the Benjamins on a Chinese made flat-screen?   Perhaps that grateful gift
receiver would like his driveway sealed, or lawn mowed for the summer, or driveway plowed all winter, or rounds at the local golf course, or gifts from the gardening center.

There are a bazillion owner-run restaurants — all offering gift certificates.  And, if your intended isn’t the fancy eatery sort, what about
a half dozen breakfasts at the local breakfast joint.   Remember folks, this isn’t about big National chains — this is about supporting your home town Americans with their financial lives on the line to keep their doors open.

How many people couldn’t use an oil change for their car, truck or motorcycle, done at a shop run by the American working guy?

Thinking about a heartfelt gift for mom?   Mom would LOVE the services of a local cleaning lady for a day.  How about a few hours from a local handyman?

My computer could use a tune-up, and I know I can find some young guy who is struggling to get his repair business up and running.

OK, you were looking for something more personal.   Local crafts people spin their own wool and knit them into scarves.   They make jewelry and pottery and beautiful wooden boxes.  Go to the Arts & Crafts & Street Fairs & Farmers Markets.

Plan your holiday outings at local, owner operated restaurants and leave your server a nice tip.   And, how about going out to see a play or ballet at your hometown theatre? Musicians need love too, so find a venue showcasing local bands.

Honestly, do you REALLY need to buy a thousand Chinese lights for the house?   When you buy a five dollar string of lights, about fifty cents stays in the community. If you have money to burn then leave the mailman, trash guy or babysitter a nice BIG tip. Donate to your church, feed the homeless, or start any other tradition of giving during Christmas, but let’s keep it going throughout the entire year for we are blessed.

You see, Christmas is no longer about draining American pockets and funding other countries development. Christmas is about caring about US citizens, encouraging American small businesses to keep plugging away to follow their dreams.  And, when we care about other Americans, we care about our communities, and the benefits come back to us in ways we couldn’t imagine.

Let’s make THIS the new American Christmas tradition.

Please forward this to everyone on your mailing list — post it to discussion groups — throw up a post on Craigslist in the Rants and Raves section in
your city — send it to the editor of your local paper and radio stations, and TV news departments.

This is a revolution of caring about each other, and isn’t that what this season is about?

Have a Happy Christmas and make this tradition last all year long.

Looking into the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) data across all areas and types we see the following:

Sales per Month: 7,832 in September – down 11% from August but up 17% from this time last year.

Active Listings (including AWC): 26,869 on October 1 – up 0.2% from September 1 but down 40% from this time last year.

Active Listings (excluding AWC): 19,327 on October 1 – up 0.6% from September 1 but down 50% from this time last year.

Pending Sales: 10,841 on October 1, down 5.8% from August 1, but up 12.4% compared with this time last year.

Listing Success Rate: 75.7% on October 1 – up from 74.5% on September 1 and up significantly from 56.9% on October 1, 2010.

Contract Ratio: 95.2 on October 1, down from 99.5 on September 1 but dramatically up from 40.0 last year at this time.

Days Inventory: 99 on October 1, the same as September 1 but dramatically down from 179 at this time last year

Cromford Market Index™: 159.3 on October 1, up from 155.6 on September 1 and 85.4 on October 1, 2010.

Sales Price as a Percentage of List: 96.70% on October 1, almost the same as 96.72% on September 1 but up from 95.43% on October 1, 2010

We can see that all these numbers are far better than 12 months ago but most are not as good as last month. However the Cromford Report Index™ continued to improve. This is because this index is a seasonally adjusted measure and it is normal for inventory to increase between September and October. In fact the inventory increased only 0.2%, far less than in an average year and causing most of the improvement in the index.

It is also normal for sales volume and pending listings to decline between September and October. This year sales volumes fell faster than pending sales, which is partly due to the decline in REO listings. With fewer lender-owned and HUD properties available, last year’s sales volume for REOs is no longer sustainable. We now see demand in slight decline and expect to see the Cromford Market Index™ fall back from its recent highs as a result.

REOs are losing market share very quickly now. Fewer trustee sales are taking place. There were 2,689 residential trustee sales in Maricopa County during September 2011, 44% fewer than the 4,808 of September 2010. In addition a larger percentage of these auctions are now won by third parties (42% in September 2011 versus 20% a year ago). So the quantity of homes reverting to the beneficiary is dropping extremely fast. Only 1,280 single family homes went back to the lenders in Maricopa County in September 2011. This is the lowest total since November 2007. It is also 61% lower than the 3,289 that they received in September 2010. They are selling far more than this number through ARMLS each month and so the lenders’ inventory is being rapidly depleted.

It is a clear sign of the strength and dominance of negative sentiment that this remarkable turn round is mostly overlooked. At the same time, a completely irrelevant increase in foreclosures between July and August (due entirely to August having 23 trustee sale days instead of July’s 20) managed to make headlines in the local papers. When bad news is amplified like this and good news is ignored we know sentiment has swung too far.

For the housing doom fans who like foreclosures, September 2011 was a pretty dismal month. There were a total of 4,544 new notices issued in Maricopa County of which 4,335 were residential. This is 39% lower than September 2010. This new number is actually slightly higher than April through July 2011, but 15% lower than last month and lower than every month prior to April until we get all the way back to December 2007. The downward trend has slowed but remains in place. The bigger news is that there were only 2,840 trustee sales of all property types. This is 44% down from September 2010. This is also the lowest number since March 2008 (except for November 2010 when Bank of America completely halted its trustee sales). Foreclosures are clearly well past their peak and the short sale is looking likely to overtake the foreclosure in the coming months as the primary mechanism to resolve homeowners’ financial distress.

Pricing

After hitting a low point in late August and again in mid September, pricing is on a slight upward trend again. The monthly median sales price has climbed from $107,000 on August 18 to $114,950 on October 3 (all areas & types). That’s a 7.4% increase in less than 7 weeks and illustrates how violently the monthly median sales price reacts when REOs start disappearing from the mix and increasing in price at the same time. For Greater Phoenix REOs the monthly median sales price has jumped from $80,000 to $86,400 in the same period, an 8% increase. Pricing for short sales and foreclosures has not followed suit and neither have sales prices for normal sales. In fact pricing has been a little weaker at the higher price points cancelling out some of the gains at the bottom of the market. The overall average price per sq. ft. is up only modestly. Having hit a decade low of $78.51 per sq. ft on September 15, we are now looking at $79.81 per sq. ft. for October 3, a bounce but not a very convincing one. The most encouraging sign is that the pending $/SF has finally started to change direction and is moving up again after trending downward for a prolonged 15 month period since May 2010. We wait with bated breath to see if it can keep this up throughout October.

Information Courtesy of Cromford Report

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  The Value of Home Maintenance

  Regular home maintenance is key to preserving the value of your house and property. Read

 In class action litigation, consumers generally do not have to pay to join, and most reputable firms will not charge a fee for attorneys to review your case or to determine if you are eligible to join a lawsuit.

“The mortgage crisis is only made worse by predators who take advantage of consumers who are already facing the loss of their home,” Horne said.  “State and federal law ban almost all types of up-front fees for foreclosure assistance. I am committed to prosecuting anyone who engages in this type of consumer fraud, and it is just as important that consumers be vigilant against these types of scams.”

 The California Attorney General recently filed a lawsuit against California lawyer Philip Kramer, the Law Offices of Kramer & Kaslow, plus 19 other lawyer and non-lawyer individuals and companies, for deceptively marketing class action or “mass joinder” lawsuits.  The defendants in that case are believed to have taken over $7 million in fees from homeowners in 17 states – including Arizona – after sending out hundreds of thousands of flyers advertising the program. The lawsuit alleges that the defendants advertised nationwide settlements against lenders that did not exist and that many servicers were not provided by lawyers or legal staff. 

Notices may be mailed to homeowners or posted on their doors. Typically, the business claims that the fee they are charging is for a forensic audit of your loan documents to see if you are eligible to join the class action litigation.  However, the Federal Trade Commission’s Mortgage Assistance Relief Services Rule (“MARS Rule”) contains a broad ban on requesting or collecting up-front fees for almost all types of mortgage assistance, including forensic audits related to foreclosure relief.  Arizona’s foreclosure consultant statute also prohibits companies from collecting an up-front fee for assisting homeowners in foreclosure. 

Foreclosure rescue companies may promise to refund your fee if you are not eligible to join the litigation.  However, the Office’s experience with guaranteed refunds indicates that they are very difficult to obtain, or the company may disappear before the refund is paid. If you are facing foreclosure, refuse to pay up-front fees and instead contact the Arizona Foreclosure Prevention Helpline at (877) 448-1211 for free assistance provided by HUD approved housing counseling agencies. 

If you feel you’ve been a victim of a class joinder scam or any other type of consumer fraud, please contact the Arizona Attorney General’s Office Consumer Information & Complaints Unit at (602) 542-5763 / (520) 628-6504 / (800) 352-8431. You can also file a consumer complaint online at:  http://www.azag.gov/consumer/complaintform.html

For additional information on how to avoid a foreclosure and how to protect yourself from scams, please contact our office for a free brochure.  We pride ourselves on being a company of good reputation and will gladly recommend quality professionals to assist you with any real estate services to help you avoid these kinds of situations. We look forward to assisting you with your real estate needs, and if you know someone who would appreciate the level of service we provide, please call us with their name and number and we’ll gladly take care of them!

Almost all the market indicators for Greater Phoenix have been strongly improving since the fourth quarter of 2010. Let’s look at what has happened since then using the numbers for all areas and types of ARMLS residential resale listings.

• Active Listings (Total): Peaking on November 20 at 45,960, supply has since declined by over 25% to 34,364
• Active Listings (excluding those in AWC status): Peaked on November 21 at 39,813, has since declined by over 28% to 26,764
• Pending Listings: Reached a low point of 8,695 on January 2, has since risen 55% to 13,467
• Sales per Month: Reached a low point of 6,195 on January 31, has since risen 49% to 9,237 today.
• Sold % List Price: Reached a low point of 94.23% on December 31, has since risen to 95.57% today.
• Days Inventory: Peaked at 188 on November 21, has since fallen 28% to 135
• Months Supply: Rose to 6.8 on October 6, has since fallen 48% to 3.5
• Listing Success Rate: Reached a low point of 53% on January 31, has since risen to 69%
• Cromford Market Index: Hit a low of 85.2 on September 28, has since recovered strongly to 123.1
• Contract Ratio: Low point of 38.0 on January 1, now more than doubled to 78.7

All of these led us to conclude we were participating in a strong recovery, but until April sales prices stubbornly refused to follow suit and merely stabilized. However during the last ten days of April average price per sq. ft. started increasing in most (but not all) sectors.

We can now declare January 22, 2011 to be an official pricing bottom for the overall ARMLS market (all areas & types), with average sales price per sq. ft. at a low level ($80.74 per sq. ft.) we are unlikely to see again. As a reminder we experienced another initial bottom in $/SF prices on April 6, 2009, followed by a rebound that lasted over a year but collapsed along with the expiry of the tax credit incentive in 2010. Those waiting for the second bottom just missed it. It is not impossible that we see a third bottom at some point. However prices are unlikely to weaken while the indicators above continue to improve. At the moment we are looking at a W shaped recovery pattern and prices are starting to move up the second upward leg.

We should point out that the sales price per sq. ft. for lender-owned homes is still making fresh lows this week. This is not bringing down the overall $/SF because lender owned homes are gradually falling as a percentage of the total while normal sales are taking a greater share. For example in April 44.6% of sales were REOs compared with 46.8% in March. Normal sales increased their share from 34.0% to 35.7% while short sales, whose sales $/SF prices have been rising slightly, increased from 19.2% to 19.8%.

Those looking for bargain buys among the single family detached REOs should note that the list price average is now $71.22 per sq. ft. up from its low point of $68.77 per sq ft just six weeks ago on March 21. Short sale and pre-foreclosure single family detached list pricing has held steady for several months at around $79 to $80, while normal list prices for these homes have surged from $185.96 on September 26 to $196.53 today.

The recent increase in average sales pricing was quite sharp and was emphasized by greater participation from the luxury market. It is a little known fact that $/SF pricing for homes above $300,000 has been moving gently higher since October/November 2010 and sales volumes are on the rise. We should expect increased price volatility over coming months as the mix of sales varies. Remember that August is historically a weak month for pricing.

We will report which sectors have shown the greatest price gain shortly, along with those sectors that have yet to move higher.

In the world of foreclosures, the big news is the rapid fall of new notices of trustee sale. April delivered only 4,418 new notices in Maricopa County of which 4,200 were residential. This is the lowest monthly total since December 2007, nearly three and a half years ago. Completed trustee sales in Maricopa County fell back from the March high as expected, but at 4,709 (4,513 of which were residential) they far outstripped the new notices for the first time ever. This signals a significant phase change in the foreclosure tsunami as the activity starts to decline more rapidly. We are now seeing huge reductions in the pending foreclosure counts, with active notices at the end of April reading 32,203 which contrasts with 51,466 at the end of 2009 and 41,478 as recently as the start of 2011.

Not quite everything is good news. The monthly sales total for April is currently standing at 9,366. Normally this would be very impressive, but after March’s 9,995 this suggests demand has reached a peak and fallen back just a bit, and this is reflected in the recent decline of the Cromford Demand Index™. It is the continued reduction in supply that is most encouraging and inventory now stands at just 3.5 months. To put that into context, the average between 2001 and 2011 has been 5.9 months with a minimum of 0.5 (in March 2005) and a maximum of 20.6 (in January 2008). It looks as though the Cromford Supply Index™ will shortly fall below 100 for the first time since November 2005. If you are buying right now, do not go out there expecting to find the widely reported “glut of foreclosed homes for sale”. That disappeared several months ago.

The pending $/SF is also not behaving very well. This is due to the unusual market we are in. Short sales constitute 29% of pending listings but only 20% of sales and they tend to remain pending for long periods, often failing to close at all. Normal listings are only 27% of pending listings but comprise nearly 36% of sales, and they tend to close fast. These factors conspire to make the average list $/SF of pending listings significantly lower than the actual $/SF of monthly sales. The mix represented by the pending listings is not currently a true reflection of what will close escrow and that gets increasingly the case as you look out further into the future. Price forecasts (including ours) that are based on measuring pending listings are therefore coming in more pessimistic than they would normally and we recommend that you should be wary of them until the market reverts to a more normal situation.

The big question now is: will higher prices lead to weakening of demand or will the sharp reduction in supply cause buyers to get more aggressive in their offers to ensure they don’t miss out on the last chance to capture homes at bargain prices?

Cromford snapshot

Reprinted from www.cromfordreport.com 5/3/11

Below are the critical areas for success (daily dozen):

1. Attitude – choose and display the right attitude Daily
2. Priorities – determine and act on important priorities Daily
3. Health – know and follow healthy guidelines Daily
4. Family – Communicate with and care for my family Daily
5. Thinking – practice and develop good thinking Daily
6. Commitment – make and keep proper commitments Daily
7. Financial – make and properly manage dollars Daily
8. Faith – deepen and live out my faith Daily
9. Relationships – initiate and invest in solid relationships Daily
10. Generosity – plan for and model generosity Daily
11. Values – embrace and practice good values Daily
12. Growth – seek and experience improvement Daily

Decisions help us get started and discipline helps us finish. It’s important to settle criticle issues early and manage them daily. The pain of self discipline is temporary but the pain of self regret is long lasting so don’t avoid the pain of self discipline only to face a lifetime of regret!  Start small and prioritize your actions so you can experience success. With these areas in mind, which will you choose to improve TODAY?