Home Prices up Nationally & Way up in South Florida.  Florida Leads the way in Housing Recovery!

NAR: 1Q sales up, inventory down

WASHINGTON – May 9, 2012 – Median existing single-family home prices are firming in many metropolitan areas, while improving sales and declining inventory are creating more balanced conditions, according to the latest quarterly report by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

The median existing single-family home price rose in 74 out of 146 (59 percent) of metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in first quarter 2012 compared to the same quarter in 2011; 72 areas had price declines. Only one quarter earlier – the fourth quarter of 2011 – only 29 areas (20 percent) had a year-over-year gain. The numbers are based on closings.

“Home prices are more volatile than normal because of sudden upswings in buyer activity in some localities, and also are affected by the prevalence of distressed sales,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “Home prices lag sales activity because the transactions were negotiated mostly in the previous quarter. Given the steadily dwindling supply of inventory and notably higher listing prices that are being negotiated today, prices are expected to show further improvements in the near future.”

Yun says housing inventory is a big part of the story.

“We now have broad shortages of lower priced homes in much of the country, with very tight supply in Western states for homes through the middle price ranges,” he says. “This is good news for many sellers who wish to list now or for those waiting for prices to improve.”

At the end of the first quarter, 2.37 million existing homes were available for sale – 21.8 percent below first quarter 2011 when 3.03 million homes were on the market. There has been a sustained downtrend since inventories set a record of 4.04 million in the summer of 2007.

The national median existing single-family home price was $158,100 in the first quarter – 0.4 percent below $158,700 in the first quarter of 2011. The median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales that sold at deep discounts – accounted for 32 percent of first quarter sales; they were 38 percent a year earlier.

Total existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, increased 4.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million in the first quarter from a downwardly revised 4.37 million in the fourth quarter, and were 5.3 percent above the 4.34 million level during the first quarter of 2011 when sales spiked.

“This is the highest first quarter sales pace since 2007,” Yun says. “With strong market fundamentals, total home sales this year should rise 7 to 10 percent.”

NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc. in Miami, said there are more opportunities in today’s market. “Historically favorable housing affordability conditions are making it easier for buyers to enter the market despite the unnecessarily tight credit conditions,” he says. “Housing supply and demand are roughly balanced with overall housing supply at the lowest level in six years, putting sellers on an even footing with buyers in most markets.”

“Qualifying incomes are well below median incomes in most of the country, which means home buyers generally can stay well within their means,” Yun says. “For example, a buyer in Indianapolis making a 10 percent downpayment would need an annual income of $24,000 to purchase a median-priced home, while in Seattle it would be $55,300. For now, buyers are facing an extraordinarily advantageous situation if they can obtain a mortgage.”

The national median family income was $61,000 in the first quarter. However, to purchase a home at the national median price, a buyer making a 5 percent downpayment would only need a $34,700 income. With a 10 percent downpayment the required income would be $32,900, while with 20 percent down, the income drops to $29,300.

First-time buyers purchased 33 percent of homes in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the fourth quarter; they were 32 percent in the first quarter of 2011.

The share of all-cash home purchases in the first quarter was 32 percent, up from 29 percent in the fourth quarter; they were 33 percent in the first quarter of 2011. Investors, drawn by bargain prices and who make up the bulk of cash purchasers, accounted for 22 percent of all transactions in the first quarter, up from 19 percent in the fourth quarter; they were 21 percent a year ago.

In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 52 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was $157,200 in the first quarter, which is up 3.4 percent from the first quarter of 2011. Eighteen metros showed increases in their median condo price from a year ago and 34 areas had declines.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 8.6 percent in the first quarter and are 6.6 percent above the first quarter of 2011. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast declined 3.2 percent to $226,300 in the first quarter from a year ago.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales rose 5.5 percent in the first quarter and are 11.7 percent higher than a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest increased 0.8 percent to $125,300 in the first quarter from the same quarter in 2011.

Existing-home sales in the South increased 2.1 percent in the first quarter and are 4.1 percent above the first quarter in 2011. The median existing single-family home price in the South rose 1.2 percent to $143,600 in the first quarter from a year earlier.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 5.9 percent in the first quarter and are 1.4 percent higher than a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West slipped 0.9 percent to $196,200 in the first quarter from the first quarter of 2011.

© 2012 Florida Realtors®

Forecast sees annual 4% rise in home prices

NEW YORK – May 9, 2012 – Average U.S. home prices – down by a third since 2006 and still falling – will rise almost 4 percent a year for the next five years, according to a new forecast.

Market watcher Fiserv sees prices stabilizing by summer’s end and then climbing, quickly in some places until gains taper off. The forecast is based on an analysis of leading home price indexes.

Investors will drive much of the momentum, as they are now in cities such as Las Vegas and Phoenix.

First-time and trade-up buyers will eventually follow.

By the time home prices stop falling, they’ll be almost 35 percent below their 2006 peak, Fiserv says.

Separately, market researcher CoreLogic said Tuesday that U.S. home prices rose 0.6 percent in March from February, the first month-over-month increase since July. Good affordability and declining inventories are key factors.

Conventional mortgage payments now account for just 12 percent of median family incomes vs. a historical norm of 20 percent, says Fiserv economist David Stiff.

The Fiserv forecast, done with Moody’s Analytics, assumes steady economic growth with no major shocks. Markets hardest hit by foreclosures will show the biggest five-year increases in home appreciation, it adds.

Six of the 10 markets where annualized prices are expected to rise most over the next five years had price drops of more than 50 percent from their peaks. Las Vegas, for instance, is 61 percent off its 2006 peak.

Meanwhile, Realtor.com says Florida has more cities than any other state that show the strongest signs of a housing recovery. Each quarter, the real estate website assesses housing data, including changes in list prices, inventories of homes for sale and local economies.

Phoenix, Miami and Orlando are the top turnaround cities in its study, based on those markets’ improvements in the first quarter compared with a year earlier. Asking prices are up more than 20 percent in Phoenix and Miami, says Realtor.com. Inventories are down more than 40 percent.

Naples, Fla., and Boise are also climbing in the rankings. New to the list of top 25 markets are Oakland and San Jose, which are benefiting from growth in the tech industry.

The continued performance of local markets will depend a lot on the economy as well as on how quickly lenders dispose of distressed homes, says Realtor.com CEO Steve Berkowitz.

Realtor.com is owned by Move, which operates a network of real estate websites.

© Copyright 2012 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Co. Inc., Julie Schmit.

Fla. justices hear homestead exemption argument

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) – May 8, 2012 – The Florida Supreme Court heard arguments Monday in the case of a Honduras couple that could determine if they and other non-resident homeowners, whether they are from foreign countries or other states, can obtain homestead property tax exemptions.

The decision will affect non-residents who seek exemptions if they have legal or natural dependents, including minor children or elderly or disabled adults, living in their primary homes who are permanent residents of Florida. The justices did not indicate when they will rule.

“This is not an immigration case,” said Assistant Miami-Dade County Attorney Melinda Thornton. “This would apply to anyone from out of state.”

No one disputed that assertion, but several justices questioned Thornton’s views on a state constitutional provision that grants exemptions for homes occupied by permanent resident dependents.

She contended David and Ana Andonie, who came to Florida from Honduras on investment visas, should be denied a 2006 exemption on their $1 million Key Biscayne home despite the fact their three then-minor children were born in Miami, were U.S. citizens and never lived anywhere else.

Arguing on behalf of Miami-Dade Property Appraiser Pedro J. Garcia, Thornton said under common law the children were residents of Honduras because that was the permanent residence of their parents. Therefore, an exemption should not have been allowed, she said.

The county’s Value Adjustment Board overruled the appraiser’s office and granted the exemption. Garcia is appealing a 3rd District Court of Appeal ruling that affirmed a trial court’s ruling upholding the board’s decision.

In support of the exemption, David Andonie had submitted a sworn statement saying the children were permanent Florida residents. Thornton argued that wasn’t good enough to ensure they would not leave Florida if their parents returned to Honduras.

“The property appraiser really, I think, is here on what-ifs, what if something happens in the future,” said the Andonies’ lawyer, Daniel A. Weiss.

Chief Justice Charles Canady then noted even permanent residents always have the option of leaving Florida.

“To rely on that to establish ineligibility here seems to be quite bizarre,” Canady said. “I’m sure you would agree.”

Weiss did.

Justice Barbara Pariente said the claim the children were residents of Honduras was “absolutely incredible.”

Thornton suggested the parents could have overcome the common law presumption the children were Honduras residents if they had obtained a court order appointing a guardian to take care of them in Florida if the mother and father were to leave the state.

Justice R. Fred Lewis, though, noted there’s nothing in the constitution or state law requiring a court order. Thornton acknowledged that and said there were other ways to ensure the children would stay in Florida.

“We’re saying that’s the cleanest way,” she said, later adding that property appraisers should “not be expected to grant or deny homestead exemptions just upon self-serving statements.”

Pariente, though, questioned why the sworn statement wasn’t good enough, noting there was no evidence of fraud or manipulation.

“I just don’t see where the problem is,” she said.

While one of the children is 12 and still a minor, the other two now are adults, ages 18 and 19, Weiss said.

The appraisers’ office also denied the family’s exemption for subsequent tax years, and the adjustment panel continued to overrule those decisions, Thornton said.

Homeowners could get a $25,000 exemption in 2006. Now, they can get an additional $25,000 exemption on non-school taxes. Another benefit is a 3 percent cap on annual assessment increases for homesteads.

The Florida Association of Property Appraisers has submitted a “friend of the court” brief supporting Garcia’s argument. The Florida Department of Revenue has filed a brief siding with the Andonies.

The case is Pedro J. Garcia, etc., et al. v. David Andonie, et al., SC11-554.
Copyright © 2012 The Associated Press, Bill Kaczor.

Is housing as cheap as it’ll ever get?

WASHINGTON – May 4, 2012 – Homebuyers who want a bargain may want to act now because the housing market is in the midst of a turnaround, economists say.

Home prices have fallen and mortgage rates are hovering near record lows, pushing home affordability for the average family to record highs. Meanwhile, rents have been on the rise, making owning a home cheaper than renting in most areas of the country, according to recent surveys.

But the housing deals aren’t expected to stick around much longer.

An improving job market, a decrease in the number of homeowners falling behind on their mortgage, and an anticipated improvement in access to mortgages is expected to help home prices start bouncing back by next year, economists say.

Investors eyeing profits in rentals also have been snapping up bank-owned properties, which Clear Capital’s Alex Villacorte attributes as helping to lead to an increase in prices on foreclosed properties. This “could have a significant impact on the market overall in terms of providing a rising floor to home values,” Villacorte told CNNMoney.

Some areas are already seeing prices rise. In Phoenix, housing prices have already increased 8.4 percent during the three months ending April 30, and Miami saw prices bump up 4.6 percent quarter over quarter, according to Clear Capital data.

“Stuff I was selling six months ago for $60,000 to $80,000 is now $90,000 to $110,000,” Tanya Marchiol, founder of Team Investments in Phoenix, told CNNMoney.

Loan rates, demand predictions

Buyers may want to act more quickly because mortgage rates are expected to tick up slightly by the end of the year. The increase is being sparked by greater demand, says Doug Lebda, CEO of LendingTree. He predicts 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will inch up to 4.5 percent by the end of the year, which is still low, however, by historical standards.

The Mortgage Bankers Association is also predicting a big leap in mortgage loans next year. For this year, MBA estimates that buyers will take out loans totaling about $415 billion, but by 2013 that number is expected to nearly double to $706 billion.

Source: “Buying a Home Won’t get Much Cheaper,” CNNMoney (May 3, 2012) and “Time To Trade The Lease For A Mortgage?” NPR (May 1, 2012)

© Copyright 2012 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD (301) 215-4688

Fla. second-best U.S. state for business

NEW YORK – May 3, 2012 – An annual survey of CEOs conducted by Chief Executive Group finds that Florida is the second-best U.S. state for businesses. The same survey in 2011 ranked Florida third.

Gov. Rick Scott cited the magazine’s results last year in his efforts to increase the number of jobs in Florida. In a letter, he jokingly told Texas Gov. Rick Perry that he was aiming for the No. 1 spot. The 2012 results still found Florida falling short of that goal, but it’s now nipping on Texas’ heels.

According to Chief Executive, the one-level boost in Florida’s ranking results from pro-business laws enacted since Scott came into office, including business tax and regulatory reforms, a 2.1 percent unemployment drop and 140,000 private sector jobs.

Texas received points for the quality of its workforce that, according to Chief Executive, is second only to Utah.

North Carolina, Tennessee, Indiana, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia and Utah rounded out the top 10 states that are best for business. California landed at the bottom of the list.

The results are based on responses from 650 business leaders that graded states where they did business.

© 2012 Florida Realtors®

With Mother’s Day arriving in just a few days, it is time to remember last year when you had a chance to buy mom a house for mother’s day.  The inventory of new homes is much lower this year & prices are up making it much more difficult to find a nice home.  Last year was a much better opportunity.

Don’t make that mistake again, mom will love a home for mother’s day.  Don’t miss out again.  Next year is sure to bring higher prices.  Save some dough & buy mom a home today.

Happy Mother’s Day!

Bidding wars catch buyers off guard

Unbelievable.  At this rate, we will run out of properties to sell in 3 months!

Facts and Trends TM Published April 2012* Location:   DADE COUNTY Price Range:   $0 – No Limit SQFT Range:   0 – No Limit Property Types:   All Res. Proptypes – All Properties – All Properties Bedrooms:   0 – No Limit Full Baths:   0 – No Limit Half Baths:   0 – No Limit Year Built:   0 – No Limit

Prepared for you by: BRYAN SCHAEFER

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Jan. 2011 – Mar. 2012)

Months of Inventory Based on Pended Sales (Jan. 2011 – Mar. 2012)

Associated Press:

U.S. rate on 30-year mortgages jumps above 4.0%

WASHINGTON – March 23, 2012 – The average U.S. rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose above 4 percent for the first time in five months. The sharp increase suggests the window to buy or refinance a home at historically low rates is closing.

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday that the rate on the 30-year loan jumped to 4.08 percent, up from 3.92 percent the previous week. A month ago, it touched 3.87 percent, the lowest since long-term mortgages began in the 1950s.

The average on the 15-year fixed mortgage rose to 3.30 percent, up from 3.16 percent last week and a record low of 3.13 percent two weeks ago.

Mortgage rates are rising because they tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. The economic outlook has improved in recent weeks, leading investors to shift money out of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds and into stocks. That has driven Treasury yields higher.

“With the economy getting stronger, the markets are beginning to recognize that rates are too low,” said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. “That means mortgage rates should rise.”

The average rate on the 30-year mortgage had been at or below 4 percent since last October.

Higher mortgage rates could spur more sales, especially if home prices begin to rise. Potential buyers will likely move quickly to avoid paying higher rates down the line.

“As we move through the year, buyer reaction could be very strong,” Naroff said.

The lowest mortgage rates on record have helped lift the housing market in recent months.

January and February made up the best winter for sales of previously occupied homes in five years, when the housing crisis began.

Builders have grown more confident over the past six months after seeing more people express interest in buying a home. They have responded by requesting the most permits to build single-family homes and apartments since October 2008.

Optimism is also rising because the job market has strengthened. Employers have added an average 244,600 jobs per month from December through February. That has helped lower the unemployment rate to 8.3 percent, the lowest level in nearly three years.

Even with the improvement, the housing market is still weak. Millions of foreclosures and short sales – when a lender accepts less than what is owed on a mortgage – remain on the market. And the housing crisis and recession have also persuaded many Americans to rent instead of buy, which has led to a drop in homeownership.

Economists say housing is years away from returning to full health.

To calculate the average rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country on Monday through Wednesday of each week.

The average rates don’t include extra fees, known as points, which most borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1 percent of the loan amount.

The average fees for the 30-year and 15-year fixed loans were 0.8, unchanged from 0.8 last week.

For the five-year adjustable loan, the average rate rose to 2.96 percent from 2.83 percent, and the average fee edged down to 0.7 from 0.8.

The average on the one-year adjustable loan rose to 2.84 percent from 2.79 percent, and the average fee was unchanged at 0.6.
Copyright © 2012 The Associated Press, Derek Kravitz, AP business writer. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.