Existing-home sales fell in January 2010 but are above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors. Existing-home sales- including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops- dropped 7.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million units in January from a revised 5.44 million in December, but remain 11.5% above the 4.53 million-unit level in January 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there is still some delay between shopping and closing that affected current sales. “Most of the completed deals in January were based on contracts in November and December. People who got into the market after the home buyer tax credit was extended in November have only recently started to offer contracts, so it will take a couple months to close those sales,” he said. “Still, the latest monthly sales decline is not encouraging, and raises concern about the strength of a recovery.”

Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 0.5% to 3.27 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.8-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 7.2-month supply in December. Raw unsold inventory is 9.6% below a year ago, and is at the lowest level since March 2006.

“Activity should be picking up strongly in late spring as buyers take advantage of the tax credit, which is critical to absorb distressed properties reaching the market and to continually chip away at inventory,” Yun said. “With a downtrend in the number of homes on the market, especially in the lower price ranges, values are beginning to firm but with great variance around the country.”

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $164,700 in January, unchanged from a year earlier. Distressed homes, which accounted for 38% of sales last month, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they typically are discounted in comparison with traditional homes in the same area.

A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 40% of homes in January, down from 43% in December. Investors accounted for 17% of transactions in January, up from 15% in December; the remaining sales were to repeat buyers. The survey also shows that buyer traffic increased 9.4% in January.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said buying a home in the current environment has become more challenging. “First-time buyers and others who need a mortgage are increasingly losing out to all-cash investors for the best bargains in many areas, particularly for foreclosed homes where cash is king,” she said. “Inventory conditions vary by price range, and of course there are major differences depending on location. Realtors are the best buyer resource for strategies on winning bids in increasingly competitive markets,” Golder said. “The bidding for more desirable homes will only accelerate between now and the April 30 contract deadline to qualify for a tax credit of up to $8,000.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 5.03% in January from 4.93% in December; the rate was 5.05% in January 2009.

Single-family home sales fell 6.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in January from a level of 4.76 million in December, but are 8.6% above the 4.08 million pace in January 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $163,600 in January, down 0.4% from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales dropped 8.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 in January from 675,000 in December, but are 38.1% above the 449,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $172,400 in January, which is 1.4 % higher than January 2009.

Northeast
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 10.9% to an annual pace of 820,000 in January but are 22.4% above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $245,300, a gain of 8.8% from January 2009.

Midwest
Existing-home sales in the Midwest declined 6.9% in January to a level of 1.08 million but are 8.0% higher than January 2009. The median price in the Midwest was $130,300, which is 1.0% below a year ago.

South
In the South, existing-home sales dropped 7.4% to an annual pace of 1.87 million in January but are 12.0% above a year ago. The median price in the South was $140,200, down 2.0% from January 2009.

West
Existing-home sales in the West declined 5.2% to an annual rate of 1.28 million in January but are 7.6% higher than January 2009. The median price in the West was $203,400, down 5.8% from a year ago.

The third-straight drop in sales on a month-to-month basis was unexpected. “The housing market remains very, very distressed,” wrote Dan Greenhaus, chief economist for Miller Tabak & Co.

“There may have been some weather-related issues playing havoc with the sales data but clearly, these results are extremely unnerving,” wrote Jennifer Lee, an economist for BMO Capital Markets. “There is nothing positive to glean from this report.”

U.S. stock markets fell after release of the report, which coincided with release of congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the economy remains fragile and needs low interest rates for an extended period of time.

Data on sales for December 2009 were revised higher to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 348,000, up from 342,000 previously reported.

Sales of new homes are down 6.1% compared with January 2009’s 329,000 units, which was the previous record low. The number of homes for sale rose 0.4% to 234,000 in January. At the January sales pace, it would take 9.1 months to sell that inventory, up from 8.0 months in December and the highest monthly supply since May.

Government statisticians have low confidence in the monthly report, which is subject to large revisions, and large sampling and other statistical errors. In most months, the government isn’t sure whether sales rose or fell. The standard error in January for instance, was plus or minus 14%. The government says it can take up to five months to establish a statistically significant trend in sales. Over the last five months, sales have been on a 362,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace, down from 382,000 in the five-month interval through December.

Sales had risen fairly steadily in the first half of 2009 before plateauing last fall. Seasonally adjusted sales have now fallen three months in a row.

With mortgage rates still very low and prices down, most analysts had concluded that the recent decline in sales was due to the impending expiration of the first-time home buyers’ credit in November.

As it happened, Congress extended the tax credit through June and expanded it to include repeat buyers. But the tax credit didn’t help sales in January. Sales of new homes are recorded once a sales contract is signed, not at closing. Some homes are sold before ground is broken on construction.

Details
Home builders had been slashing their inventory of unsold homes for more than a year to a 38-year low before January’s 1,000 increase. The number of homes for sale that are under construction fell to a record low of 100,000.

Builders have cut back on production of new homes, but they still face headwinds from unsold existing-homes as foreclosures continue to mount up. If a home isn’t sold before it’s finished, it’s taking a record 14.2 months to sell it after completion—a reflection of the mismatch between more expensively priced homes in the inventory and lower-priced homes that have been selling.

The median sales price of a new home sold in January was $203,500, down 2.4% compared with a year earlier. Cheaper homes were selling better than expensive ones: 47% of sales were for less than $200,000, up from 43% in December. Meanwhile, 38% of sales were for $200,000 to $400,000, down from 41% in December.

Sales were down in three of four regions: down 35% in the Northeast, down 12% in the West and down 10% in the South. January’s sales were up 2% in the Midwest, the government’s data showed.

It’s on the market as a short sale, so the owner can’t act until the mortgage holder approves the discount price. But the Altamonte Springs, Fla. couple insists on buying their first home in time to take advantage of the federal government’s home buyer tax credit, which now expires April 30, 2010.

“The house is our dream house—it’s perfect for us,” Nacion-Ograyensek said. “We are trying to get in on the tax credit, but it’s done in April, and it’s already February. We’ve gotten to the point where we’re passively looking for other houses, but none are quite right.”

Under pressure from the real estate industry, Congress extended and expanded the tax credit last fall. It was to have ended November 30, 2009 and benefit only buyers who had not purchased a home in the past three years. Like the original, the latest version is worth as much as $8,000, but it gives both first-time buyers and qualified existing homeowners until April 30 to secure a contract on a home, and until June 30 to close the deal.

Though real estate agents and homebuilders hope the measure boosts sales, as the previous version was credited with doing, some fear that buyer’s intent on getting a short sale bargain will not make the new deadlines.

In the Orlando area, 67% of Realtors’ existing-home sales in December 2009 were distressed sales—and about half of those were short sales, known for taking at least three months to complete. Even buyers who nail down a contract with the seller by the April 30 deadline can’t be sure the purchase will close within the required two months. “That’s where you get into that riverboat-gambling mentality,” said Jim Ruddy, the longtime real estate agent representing Nacion-Ograyensek and her husband. “Is it worth gambling that $8,000?” At this point in the tax credit countdown, buyers interested in purchasing a short sale must decide whether they are really committed to that property—enough that they would still want to purchase it if they miss the June 30 tax credit deadline, Ruddy said.

Nacion-Ograyensek said she and her husband recently revisited the short sale house in Altamonte Springs and decided it was worth the gamble. The kitchen is ideal for cooking, and the backyard is large enough if they have children or adopt a dog. They have decided to stick with their plan; still, each day that passes makes them more anxious.

In hopes of capturing tax credit-motivated buyers who aren’t focused on distressed properties, Florida’s real estate agents have scheduled an unprecedented statewide open house of properties listed for sale. The event, organized by the Florida Association of Realtors, is set for April 10-11—just two weeks before the tax credit deadline.

Kathleen McIver-Gallagher, chairman of the Orlando Regional Realtor Association, said buyers intent on getting the tax credit should be concerned if they are trying to purchase a short sale through lenders known for slow responses to short sale offers.

As the April tax credit deadline nears, buyers will probably become more interested in homes other than distressed sales, McIver-Gallagher said. “There are plenty of regular homes out there,” she added.

Compounding the delays are new reporting rules that lenders must now follow. Nate Morris, vice president of Thomas Mortgage and Financial Services, said the new requirements involve good faith estimates and HUD closing documents. “It certainly could further complicate things,” said Morris, a board member of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Florida. “I don’t see this working out till the middle of the year. Everyone in the mortgage business talks about it on a daily basis.”

Banks participating in the Home Affordable Mortgage Program, announced a year ago this week by President Barack Obama, have been slow to turn temporarily reduced mortgage payments into permanent ones.

“The overarching sense is that the mortgage modification process has not worked that well,” said Bert Ely, an independent banking consultant. Obama administration officials admit the $75-billion program, which offers banks cash incentives to reduce payments, has had growing pains, and they said they are considering revisions to make it more effective.

Still, the program is expected to show continued progress when data from January is released after a strong push by Treasury Department officials to get banks to make more of the modifications permanent. For example, Bank of America, one of the nation’s largest servicers of mortgages, said recently it had increased the number of permanent mortgage modifications to 12,700 last month from 3,200 in December 2009. BofA said an additional 13,700 permanent modifications were in their final stage. But that’s a drop in the bucket considering BofA holds about 1 million mortgages that are at least 60 days delinquent. About 4 million homeowners nationwide are 90 days or more delinquent on their mortgages or in foreclosure proceedings, according to Moody’s Economy.com, which analyzes data from the credit reporting company Equifax.

Trial modifications and other delays have kept many of those mortgages out of foreclosure, but by the end of this year, 2.4 million borrowers are expected to lose their homes, said Celia Chen, a housing economist at Economy.com. That would be up from 2.1 million foreclosures and short sales last year and five times the annual numbers earlier in the decade. It is unclear when those distressed properties would hit the market, but their large numbers are likely to push home prices back down this year, hitting bottom in the fourth quarter, Chen said. And that would make things worse for the 25% of homeowners who already owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth.

The biggest blows will be felt in California, Florida, Nevada and other states where home prices have dropped the most and the ranks of struggling homeowners have swelled.

Despite an increasing number of foreclosure-prevention efforts, lawmakers and community advocates say they haven’t yielded the hoped-for results. “Outreach isn’t happening,” said Hyepin Im, president of the Korean Churches for Community Development, a Los Angeles group that has sought to help hundreds of Asian-American borrowers who are struggling to avert foreclosure. At the outset, banks didn’t screen borrowers before giving them trial modifications, she said. “Then at the end, they don’t give very clear answers why they’re not getting permanent modifications. There’s very little transparency.”

A report last week by Moody’s Investor Services called the Obama administration modification program’s impact “underwhelming.” But administration officials said it is on track to reduce payments for 3 million to 4 million homeowners through 2012. As of Dec. 31, the program had helped get 787,231 home loans modified for three months and had helped make an additional 66,465 modifications permanent.

Officials noted that not all homeowners are eligible—the program is only for owner-occupied homes, and excludes a variety of mortgages, including jumbo loans. And the administration continues to make changes, including a requirement added last month requiring homeowners to document their income before a trial modification is granted.

But the program continues to draw criticism. Banks have complained they’ve had trouble getting homeowners to provide the necessary documents. Frustrated homeowners have complained of bureaucratic runarounds from their servicers. Federal watchdog agencies have criticized the program. And last month the chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee announced an investigation.

(2) Younger baby boomers (46 to 54 years old), now in or entering their prime earning years- This group will also face a tough time selling suburban homes, hampering the ability of these boomers to move. Because the recession has left many younger boomers with flat incomes and less home equity, their ability to purchase second homes will be greatly diminished, curbing prospects in general for the second home market. However, like their older counterparts, they will be drawn to more connected, compactly designed communities when they are able to switch houses.

(3) Generation Y- This tech-savvy generation has a population of about 86 million, more than the baby boomers. Gen Yers place high value on community; on places (either virtual or actual) to gather and share information, ideas and opinions. As they enter the housing market, they will be far less interested in homeownership than their parents were when they were young adults. (The recession, said McIlwain, has “tempered the interest of Gen Yers in buying their own homes and they will be renters by necessity or choice for years ahead”). Despite having small incomes, Gen Y will gravitate toward walkable, close-in communities, choosing isolated housing on outer edges only as a last resort because it is the most affordable. Green, “net zero” homes powered exclusively by alternative energy will have strong appeal to this group.

(4) Immigrants- Already 40 million strong, the total population of legal and illegal immigrants in the U.S. has an even greater impact when the children and grandchildren are included as a factor. The tendency of immigrants to cluster, and to live in multi-generational households, suggests that they would prefer larger homes if they could afford them and if the homes were in neighborhoods with a strong sense of community.

All of these groups have some characteristics that reflect a desire to live in more pedestrian-friendly, transit-oriented, mixed-use environments that de-emphasize auto dependency, whether the location is urban or suburban, McIlwain noted. Among the majors factors driving urbanization: 1) growth of two-person households and single households without children (among both baby boomers and Generation Y); 2) a halt to baby boomer migration to the suburbs; 3) the likelihood of Generation Y to rent rather than own; and 4) public policies encouraging compact development.

Economic and land constraints make it impossible for urban infill development to accommodate all the housing demand represented by all the demographic groups, McIlwain said. As a result, suburban development “must adapt or it will be obsolete,” he concluded. “The suburban century is over. This is the urban century.”

Q: What’s the outlook for foreclosure activity in 2010?

A: It’s likely that we’ll set a new record in terms of overall foreclosure activity for the fourth consecutive year. Over 1.3 million U.S. households received a foreclosure notice in 2007; over 2.3 million received notices in 2008; and although the 2009 numbers haven’t been completely counted as this issue goes to press, there will be somewhere in the vicinity of 2.8 to 3 million households in foreclosure. We’re likely to see more than this in 2010, with the number of homeowners in foreclosure probably exceeding 3.5 million, before the trend begins to reverse itself sometime in 2011.

Q: Will we see a flood of REOs?

A: Investors, home buyers and real estate professionals have all been anxiously awaiting a tidal wave of REOs for the past two years. Instead, inventory levels have remained frustratingly low, even in some of the hardest-hit foreclosure markets. Expect more of the same in 2010.

What this means for buyers and sellers is that there will be limited availability of REOs, albeit at higher-than-normal levels. No flood, but a good chance that the trickle on the market today will grow to a more steady stream. While this makes it less likely that we’ll see a “double dip” in home prices, we also won’t see much price appreciation until these distressed assets are finally gobbled up. The most likely scenario is a long, relatively flat period of recovery in the housing market.

Q: Will there be a surge in short sales?

A: A big frustration for potential foreclosure buyers has been the difficulty in buying a property via short sale. Agents have questioned why banks reject a short sale offer 20% below the mortgage amount only to spend tens of thousands of dollars to foreclose on the home and then sell it as an REO at a 50% discount.

We’ll see an increase in the number of short sales if the Treasury Department has anything to say about it. Lenders participating in the Obama Administration’s loan modification program will be strongly encouraged to offer any homeowner who doesn’t meet the requirements for HAMP (Home Affordable Modification Program) a short sale opportunity as an alternative to foreclosure.

But short sales won’t be a panacea, either. In many cases, the presence of a second loan will make negotiating a short sale much more difficult; in other cases, the owner of the primary loan might foreclose on the home, wipe out the second loan, and sell the home, using the amount of the second loan as a “market discount” to move the property.

Q: What are the implications for real estate professionals?

A: Working with foreclosure properties will require diligence, persistence and patience. But there has never been a market with as much inventory to choose from, and the combination of deeply discounted pricing and historically low interest rates make many deals once-in-a-lifetime opportunities.

Whether you’re a buyer’s agent looking for investment properties or a listing agent looking for REO homes, 2010 marks the beginning of a decade of unprecedented opportunity. Let us know how we can help you succeed.

If you have a good job and good credit, the next few months might be a good time to go house hunting. Fence-sitters take the risk that Congress may let a rich tax credit expire, and that interest rates may rise. Buyers and sellers should consider the following factors as they consider jumping into the housing market.

(1) Mortgage rates are blissfully low, and that may not last. The rate on a 30-year mortgage averaged 5% last week, according to Freddie Mac. Rates are low in part because the Federal Reserve has been buying up about $3 trillion in mortgage-backed securities and mortgage agency debt. The aim is to hold down interest rates and keep mortgages available. But the Fed is slowly removing that financial crutch as the economy improves. It has no plans to buy any more past March 30, 2010. The likely result is an uptick in rates. Meanwhile, the recovering economy by itself should raise rates as the year goes on. Economists at the Mortgage Bankers Association expect to see a 6.1% rate by year end. Such a rise would add about $104 to the monthly payment on a $150,000 mortgage

(2) The home buyer tax credit expires on April 30, 2010 and no one knows if Congress will renew it a second time. Expect a clash between the real estate lobby and fiscal conservatives worried about the $1.35 trillion federal deficit. To qualify for the credit, you must sign a purchase contract by April 30, 2010 and close by July 1, 2010. First-time buyers get up to $8,000. “First-time” is defined as someone who hasn’t owned a home in three years. Move-up buyers get up to $6,500 when they purchase a new primary residence. To get the credit, you have to have lived in the old home for at least five out of the last eight years. The credits start phasing out at $125,000 in adjusted gross income for singles and $225,000 for joint filers.

(3) There are indications that home prices are near a bottom in some areas and may actually be rising a bit. That statement is dicey, because conditions vary by neighborhood and the data can be tricky.

Things might look different if you’re a seller though. Do you want to put your house on the market near the bottom of a price cycle? Homeowners who have a choice in the matter—those who can still pay their mortgages—are largely saying no. Inventories of homes for sale are down about 10% from this time last year, and 30% from the mid-decade peak of the housing boom. On the other hand, if you’re planning to move up to something grander, you might find a bigger bargain when you buy. And that $6,500 tax credit could swing a close decision.

Home sales peaked in some areas October and November, as buyers raced the expiration date of the original first-time home buyer’s credit. Congress later extended and expanded it. That rush satisfied some pent-up demand, but real estate agents are hoping for another rush around April. “People will wait to the very last second,” said Mike Travaglini,  Vice President of Coldwell Banker Gundaker’s office in south St. Louis County.

Mortgage lenders have been tightening credit standards, which means fewer eligible buyers….its getting tighter and tighter.

Lenders are insisting on credit scores of 640 to 660 for loans sold to Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and 620 for FHA guaranteed loans. Those standards are higher than the federal agencies themselves insist on. FHA—which guarantees loans for people with low down-payments—has been raising its own insurance charges to borrowers and demanding higher premiums from people with poor credit scores.

The data shows that this is still far less than what buyers were negotiating off the listing price at this time last year. In December 2008, home buyers using a Realtor bargained a median 4.5%, or $10,018, off the last listing price.

Listing prices across the nation showed a slight increase December, with the median price of homes listed at $209,900.  That marks a 0.4% increase since November, but a decrease of 6.7% since December 2009.

1. Determine if your partnership qualifies for an income deferral for debt reacquisition transactions.

Has your business had debt forgiven? There is a tax election available that will allow you to defer cancellation of debt (COD) income until 2014, when it will then be recognized ratably over five years. Carefully consider the options before making this irrevocable election as your COD income could be fully excluded under other provisions.

2. Color your building green.

Take advantage of special deductions and credits for green, or environmentally friendly, buildings.

3. Determine if you are a dealer or an investor.

Do you know if you are a real estate dealer or an investor with regard to taxes? Proper planning will ensure the desired treatment upon disposition of the property.

4. Allocate land costs to your benefit.

To defer income upon the sale of parcels from a tract of purchased land, it is necessary to properly allocate the cost among the various parcels. The IRS requires that the cost be equitably apportioned, but how? Consider several methods when allocating costs.

5. Take advantage of lower property valuations.

Have you considered gifting real estate property or partnership interest for estate planning purposes? You may want to consider converting a corporation into an LLC since built-in gains may be low due to depressed real estate values.

6. Properly account for your lease income.

You may be accounting for your lease income based on the cash received or the terms of the lease agreement. However, an Internal Revenue Code section specifically addressing leases may require the income to be accounted for in a different manner.

]]> http://inside-real-estate.com/brethouston/2010/02/05/6-tax-tips-for-real-estate-owners-and-investors/feed/ 0 0485Buy a House, Community, Estate, First Time Home Buyers, Home Improvement, Homes, Homes for Sale, Housing Market, Neighborhood, Property, Property Investment, Questions and Answers, Real Estate, Real Estate Agent]]> http://inside-real-estate.com/brethouston/2010/02/03/6-questions-foreclosure-buyers-should-ask/ http://inside-real-estate.com/brethouston/2010/02/03/6-questions-foreclosure-buyers-should-ask/#comments Wed, 03 Feb 2010 20:40:23 +0000 UtahsHomeTeam http://inside-real-estate.com/brethouston/?p=47 Is now a good time to buy a foreclosure?

This is a very common question from both real estate professionals and prospective buyers. Obviously, because local market conditions vary, the answer is different from market to market. But there are questions that buyers in any market should be asking a Realtor before they make an offer on a property in foreclosure.

What’s the first step buyers need to take?

Foreclosure buyers should be Pre-Approved for a loan before you shop for a foreclosure. If you’re thinking of buying a foreclosure as an investment or second home, you need to understand that financing the home will be more difficult and more expensive than financing a primary residence. Lenders typically charge higher interest rates and require a larger down payment for investment or second homes.

How can you tell a bad foreclosure from a good one?

Certainly there are great deals in many markets for both investors and buyers looking for a primary residence. But making a sound deal can be tricky. Buyers need to be wary of unpaid liens, including mortgage debt, taxes, construction loans, home equity lines of credit, and possibly a second or third mortgage. Any or all of these financial obligations could become your responsibility as a buyer when you purchase a property in foreclosure. Unless the property goes through a foreclosure auction and becomes a bank-owned REO, the outstanding foreclosure liens and fees could be simply transferred to the new owner—you the buyer. Don’t fall into the same financial trap as the previous owner.

If I’m a qualifying borrower, can I appeal to banks for better loan terms?

Lenders are drowning in defaults—particularly in hard-hit real estate markets such as Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, and Ohio—so they may be motivated to cut a deal. If you have a good credit score, many banks will offer you a below-market-rate loan on a bank-owned home. Unlike paying down with points, this doesn’t cost anything in fees, and it gives you the ability to spend more for the home.

What are the costs of buying a foreclosure?

It takes money to make money. The best opportunities are for buyers with cash. If you are planning to rent out the property or even resell it for a quick profit, make sure you consider the carrying costs, including sales commissions, marketing costs, vacancies, taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs. Once you’ve calculated all the expenses, add on another 10 percent to 15 percent. If you don’t build in a “surprise fund,” you might be the next foreclosure statistic.

How does choice of neighborhood affect foreclosure investments?

Buyers looking for a good investment should generally avoid neighborhoods overrun with foreclosures, particularly newer subdivisions in overbuilt exurban areas. Investors will be tempted to buy foreclosures in these areas because they offer the steepest discounts—but they also carry the most risk of further depreciation. Look in well established neighborhoods with good schools and transportation. If you’re in a market where prices are still falling, you need to factor falling prices into any offer you submit on a foreclosed property.