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Existing-Home Sales Down In January 2010 But Higher Than Year Ago

Thursday, March 4th, 2010

Existing-home sales fell in January 2010 but are above year-ago levels, according to the National Association of Realtors. Existing-home sales- including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops- dropped 7.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million units in January from a revised 5.44 million in December, but remain 11.5% above the 4.53 million-unit level in January 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there is still some delay between shopping and closing that affected current sales. “Most of the completed deals in January were based on contracts in November and December. People who got into the market after the home buyer tax credit was extended in November have only recently started to offer contracts, so it will take a couple months to close those sales,” he said. “Still, the latest monthly sales decline is not encouraging, and raises concern about the strength of a recovery.”

Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 0.5% to 3.27 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.8-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 7.2-month supply in December. Raw unsold inventory is 9.6% below a year ago, and is at the lowest level since March 2006.

“Activity should be picking up strongly in late spring as buyers take advantage of the tax credit, which is critical to absorb distressed properties reaching the market and to continually chip away at inventory,” Yun said. “With a downtrend in the number of homes on the market, especially in the lower price ranges, values are beginning to firm but with great variance around the country.”

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $164,700 in January, unchanged from a year earlier. Distressed homes, which accounted for 38% of sales last month, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they typically are discounted in comparison with traditional homes in the same area.

A parallel NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 40% of homes in January, down from 43% in December. Investors accounted for 17% of transactions in January, up from 15% in December; the remaining sales were to repeat buyers. The survey also shows that buyer traffic increased 9.4% in January.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said buying a home in the current environment has become more challenging. “First-time buyers and others who need a mortgage are increasingly losing out to all-cash investors for the best bargains in many areas, particularly for foreclosed homes where cash is king,” she said. “Inventory conditions vary by price range, and of course there are major differences depending on location. Realtors are the best buyer resource for strategies on winning bids in increasingly competitive markets,” Golder said. “The bidding for more desirable homes will only accelerate between now and the April 30 contract deadline to qualify for a tax credit of up to $8,000.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 5.03% in January from 4.93% in December; the rate was 5.05% in January 2009.

Single-family home sales fell 6.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in January from a level of 4.76 million in December, but are 8.6% above the 4.08 million pace in January 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $163,600 in January, down 0.4% from a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales dropped 8.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 620,000 in January from 675,000 in December, but are 38.1% above the 449,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $172,400 in January, which is 1.4 % higher than January 2009.

Northeast
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 10.9% to an annual pace of 820,000 in January but are 22.4% above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $245,300, a gain of 8.8% from January 2009.

Midwest
Existing-home sales in the Midwest declined 6.9% in January to a level of 1.08 million but are 8.0% higher than January 2009. The median price in the Midwest was $130,300, which is 1.0% below a year ago.

South
In the South, existing-home sales dropped 7.4% to an annual pace of 1.87 million in January but are 12.0% above a year ago. The median price in the South was $140,200, down 2.0% from January 2009.

West
Existing-home sales in the West declined 5.2% to an annual rate of 1.28 million in January but are 7.6% higher than January 2009. The median price in the West was $203,400, down 5.8% from a year ago.

New Home Sales Fall To Record Low

Friday, February 26th, 2010

Sales of new U.S. homes plunged 11.2% in January 2010 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000, the lowest rate on record dating back to 1963, the Commerce Department recently reported.

The third-straight drop in sales on a month-to-month basis was unexpected. “The housing market remains very, very distressed,” wrote Dan Greenhaus, chief economist for Miller Tabak & Co.

“There may have been some weather-related issues playing havoc with the sales data but clearly, these results are extremely unnerving,” wrote Jennifer Lee, an economist for BMO Capital Markets. “There is nothing positive to glean from this report.”

U.S. stock markets fell after release of the report, which coincided with release of congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the economy remains fragile and needs low interest rates for an extended period of time.

Data on sales for December 2009 were revised higher to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 348,000, up from 342,000 previously reported.

Sales of new homes are down 6.1% compared with January 2009’s 329,000 units, which was the previous record low. The number of homes for sale rose 0.4% to 234,000 in January. At the January sales pace, it would take 9.1 months to sell that inventory, up from 8.0 months in December and the highest monthly supply since May.

Government statisticians have low confidence in the monthly report, which is subject to large revisions, and large sampling and other statistical errors. In most months, the government isn’t sure whether sales rose or fell. The standard error in January for instance, was plus or minus 14%. The government says it can take up to five months to establish a statistically significant trend in sales. Over the last five months, sales have been on a 362,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace, down from 382,000 in the five-month interval through December.

Sales had risen fairly steadily in the first half of 2009 before plateauing last fall. Seasonally adjusted sales have now fallen three months in a row.

With mortgage rates still very low and prices down, most analysts had concluded that the recent decline in sales was due to the impending expiration of the first-time home buyers’ credit in November.

As it happened, Congress extended the tax credit through June and expanded it to include repeat buyers. But the tax credit didn’t help sales in January. Sales of new homes are recorded once a sales contract is signed, not at closing. Some homes are sold before ground is broken on construction.

Details
Home builders had been slashing their inventory of unsold homes for more than a year to a 38-year low before January’s 1,000 increase. The number of homes for sale that are under construction fell to a record low of 100,000.

Builders have cut back on production of new homes, but they still face headwinds from unsold existing-homes as foreclosures continue to mount up. If a home isn’t sold before it’s finished, it’s taking a record 14.2 months to sell it after completion—a reflection of the mismatch between more expensively priced homes in the inventory and lower-priced homes that have been selling.

The median sales price of a new home sold in January was $203,500, down 2.4% compared with a year earlier. Cheaper homes were selling better than expensive ones: 47% of sales were for less than $200,000, up from 43% in December. Meanwhile, 38% of sales were for $200,000 to $400,000, down from 41% in December.

Sales were down in three of four regions: down 35% in the Northeast, down 12% in the West and down 10% in the South. January’s sales were up 2% in the Midwest, the government’s data showed.

Short Sale Buyers Face Difficulty Closing Deals Quickly

Friday, February 19th, 2010

Rachel Nacion-Ograyensek and her husband are getting nervous. The house that the two apartment dwellers want to buy—the one with the double oven, pool and tiled patio—may slip away from them.

It’s on the market as a short sale, so the owner can’t act until the mortgage holder approves the discount price. But the Altamonte Springs, Fla. couple insists on buying their first home in time to take advantage of the federal government’s home buyer tax credit, which now expires April 30, 2010.

“The house is our dream house—it’s perfect for us,” Nacion-Ograyensek said. “We are trying to get in on the tax credit, but it’s done in April, and it’s already February. We’ve gotten to the point where we’re passively looking for other houses, but none are quite right.”

Under pressure from the real estate industry, Congress extended and expanded the tax credit last fall. It was to have ended November 30, 2009 and benefit only buyers who had not purchased a home in the past three years. Like the original, the latest version is worth as much as $8,000, but it gives both first-time buyers and qualified existing homeowners until April 30 to secure a contract on a home, and until June 30 to close the deal.

Though real estate agents and homebuilders hope the measure boosts sales, as the previous version was credited with doing, some fear that buyer’s intent on getting a short sale bargain will not make the new deadlines.

In the Orlando area, 67% of Realtors’ existing-home sales in December 2009 were distressed sales—and about half of those were short sales, known for taking at least three months to complete. Even buyers who nail down a contract with the seller by the April 30 deadline can’t be sure the purchase will close within the required two months. “That’s where you get into that riverboat-gambling mentality,” said Jim Ruddy, the longtime real estate agent representing Nacion-Ograyensek and her husband. “Is it worth gambling that $8,000?” At this point in the tax credit countdown, buyers interested in purchasing a short sale must decide whether they are really committed to that property—enough that they would still want to purchase it if they miss the June 30 tax credit deadline, Ruddy said.

Nacion-Ograyensek said she and her husband recently revisited the short sale house in Altamonte Springs and decided it was worth the gamble. The kitchen is ideal for cooking, and the backyard is large enough if they have children or adopt a dog. They have decided to stick with their plan; still, each day that passes makes them more anxious.

In hopes of capturing tax credit-motivated buyers who aren’t focused on distressed properties, Florida’s real estate agents have scheduled an unprecedented statewide open house of properties listed for sale. The event, organized by the Florida Association of Realtors, is set for April 10-11—just two weeks before the tax credit deadline.

Kathleen McIver-Gallagher, chairman of the Orlando Regional Realtor Association, said buyers intent on getting the tax credit should be concerned if they are trying to purchase a short sale through lenders known for slow responses to short sale offers.

As the April tax credit deadline nears, buyers will probably become more interested in homes other than distressed sales, McIver-Gallagher said. “There are plenty of regular homes out there,” she added.

Compounding the delays are new reporting rules that lenders must now follow. Nate Morris, vice president of Thomas Mortgage and Financial Services, said the new requirements involve good faith estimates and HUD closing documents. “It certainly could further complicate things,” said Morris, a board member of the Mortgage Bankers Association of Florida. “I don’t see this working out till the middle of the year. Everyone in the mortgage business talks about it on a daily basis.”

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