Bo Foster's Real Estate Blog | Rainier, WA | First Time Home Buyers, Foreclosures, Short Sales, Homes for Sale, Real Estate, Housing Market

Inside Real Estate
Let Me Help You!
(360) 239-1316
Follow My Blog
RSS
bojanafoster
Bojana (Bo) Foster
Broker

    20 Years Experience

Direct: (360) 239-1316



Company Info

Signature Service Real Estate, Rainier


Real Estate Tools

Schoolsschools

Communitiescommunities

Calculatorscalculators

Posts Tagged ‘Rainier Housing Market’

Pending Home Sales Drop as Expected

Wednesday, July 7th, 2010

Posted By _susanne_ On July 5, 2010 @ 1:08 pm In _Home Buying 101_,
_Home Value News_, _Homeowner’s Toolkit_, _Real Estate_, _Real Estate
Information_, _Real Estate News_, _Real Estate Trends_, _Today’s
Marketplace_, _Today’s Top Story_, _Today’s Top Story – Consumer_ |
_Comments Disabled
^[1] RISMEDIA, July 6, 2010—Following a surge driven by the home buyer
tax credit, pending home sales fell with the expiration of the deadline
for qualified buyers to sign a purchase contract, according to the
National Association of Realtors.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, dropped 30%
to 77.6 based on contracts signed in May 2010 from a reading of 110.9 in
April, and is 15.9% below May 2009 when it was 92.3. The falloff comes
on the heels of three strong monthly gains as home buyers rushed to take
advantage of the tax credit.

The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with
a lag time of one or two months. However, many closings have been
delayed recently from a rush of buyers into the system and slow
processing of short sales, in addition to the heavy volume and a more
thorough loan underwriting process. As many as 180,000 buyers who signed
contracts by April 30 may have missed the June 30 closing deadline for
the tax credit. However, Congress passed legislation recently to extend
the deadline for delayed contracts and President Obama is expected to sign.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, “Consumers are rational and they
rushed to meet the tax credit eligibility deadline in April. The sharp
decline in contract signings in May is a natural result with similar low
levels of sales activity anticipated in June,” he said. “Surprisingly,
though, some local markets such as Portland, Maine and Jacksonville,
Fla., actually experienced an increase in contract signings from a year
ago without the tax credit. Existing-home sales that close in June will
remain elevated, but we’ll then see a notable decline for July and August.”

Congress also reauthorized the National Flood Insurance Program. Many
lenders were hesitant to approve mortgages on homes needing flood
insurance without congressional action and numerous sales have been on
hold. The action is retroactive to a temporary authorization that
expired May 31, and also is expected to be signed by the president.

Yun noted the tax credit has broadly stabilized home prices. “Without
the tax credit, there will be more aggressive price negotiations between
buyers and sellers. The key test on whether the housing market can stand
on its own without stimulus medicine will depend critically on private
sector job creation in the second half of the year. We’ll also keep a
close eye on market conditions on the Gulf Coast.”

Through May of this year, 495,000 net private sector jobs have been
created; NAR’s forecast for employment growth is about 1 million
additional net new jobs over the balance of the year and another 2
million in 2011.

“If jobs come back as expected, the pace of home sales should pick up
later this year and reach a sustainable level of activity given very
favorable affordability conditions,” Yun said.

“In most areas of the country, there will be no sharp snap back in home
prices in the upcoming years, although some local markets have
experienced double-digit gains this year,” Yun said. NAR forecasts the
national median home price to rise only 4% cumulatively over the next
two years.

“One factor that could lead to price acceleration in upcoming years for
some markets is if the very low levels of new home construction were to
persist for another year or two,” he added.

The PHSI in the Northeast fell 31.6% to 67.0 in May and is 14.8% lower
than May 2009. In the Midwest the index dropped 32.1% to 70.8 and is
20.2% below a year ago. Pending home sales in the South fell 33.3% to an
index of 82.5, and are 14.4% lower than May 2009. In the West the index
declined 20.9% to 85.3 and is 15.1% below a year ago.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org ^[2] .

Senate Passes Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension

Wednesday, June 23rd, 2010

The Senate has passed a bill to give homebuyers another three months to
close on their homes and receive tax credits up to $8,000. The Tax
Extenders Bill would apply to homebuyers who met the April 30, 2010
deadline with a signed contract to purchase a new or existing primary
residence. The amendment would extend the deadline to September 30, 2010
for homebuyers to close on their real estate transaction. The previous
deadline was June 30, 2010. The bill now goes to the House of
Representatives, where it is expected to pass.

The National Association of Realtors estimates that as many as 180,000
homebuyers have qualified for the tax credit and met the contract
deadline of April 30, 2010, but might not be able to close their
transaction by the June 30, 2010 deadline due to the sheer volume of
loan applications in the pipeline.

If you have any questions about how the federal tax credits and the
extension may benefit your clients, please call me today. I’m available
for consultation with your customers. Please feel free to share this
news, forward this email, or have them call me directly.

/The above content is for informational purposes only and should not be
used as a substitute for consultation with a tax advisor./

Click here to visit my website and apply on line:
http://www.myprospectmortgage.com/ckuck

Cheryl Kuck

Loan Officer
Prospect Mortgage
NMLS# 247809
4275 Executive Square, Suite 700
La Jolla, CA 92037
Office: (858) 550-2523
Cell: (858) 395-3863
Fax: (877) 272-2097
Cheryl.Kuck@prospectmtg.com

Backyard Improvement Ideas to Add More Value to Your Home

Monday, June 14th, 2010

Posted By _Paige_ On June 9, 2010 @ 4:05 pm In _Homeowner’s Toolkit_,
_Today’s Marketplace_, _Today’s Top Story_, _Today’s Top Story -
Consumer_ | _Comments Disabled

^[1]
RISMEDIA, June 10, 2010—If you’re like most homeowners, there is never
a shortage of options when it comes to projects around the house. But
studies have shown that some of the highest return on household
improvements can come from those on the outside, not the inside.

A primary reason is that outside investments can produce curb appeal,
which is especially important if you are planning to sell your home.
Those same improvements can enhance the enjoyment factor if you and your
family plan to stay in your home.

For example, one national industry resource—the National Association
of Realtors, reported recently their experience shows a new wood deck
produces the second highest return on home improvement investment of any
common addition, remodel or replacement project.

However projects don’t have to be big to add value or enjoyment,
according to Jimmy Rane, president of Great Southern Wood Preserving, a
leading producer of pressure-treated lumber products and maker of
YellaWood brand products.

*The following popular outside improvement projects will increase the
curb appeal or value of a home:*

*Adirondack chairs*—Uniquely-American classic outdoor furniture is
made entirely of wood and has a straight back and seat, which are set at
a slant to sit comfortably on a hillside or mountain incline, but still
be comfortable at any angle.

*Gazebo*—A gazebo can be freestanding or attached to a garden wall,
roofed and open on all sizes to provide shade or shelter.

*Planters and window boxes*—Planters have become popular because they
are both functional and ornamental. Additionally, some can be moved
frequently to account for seasonal weather or just to create a change in
scenery.

*Picnic table*—Picnic tables go well on a patio or a deck, but equally
as well on the grass or under a tree in the yard. A traditional picnic
table is all in one piece so that it wears well without a lot of
maintenance.

*Trellis*—A trellis can function as a unique sun screen or it can be
the framework for an outdoor hanging garden. Building it with pressure
treated lumber can add life by minimizing rotting and other threats.

*Trash can corral or compost b*in—While many outdoor projects tend to
be cosmetic in nature, here are two ideas that are both practical and
pretty. With a trash can corral, you can hide unsightly trash cans and
with a compost bin, you can reduce your own carbon footprint in a way
that doesn’t take away from the visual appeal of the place.

For more information, visit www.greatsouthernwood.com

5 Tips to Save Money for First-Time Home Buyers

Tuesday, May 25th, 2010

RISMEDIA, May 25, 2010—Those who missed taking advantage of the
first-time buyer tax credit but who are still planning the purchase of
their first home, continue to have a wealth of opportunities in today’s
marketplace. A few smart steps can save first-time buyers thousands of
dollars. Here is a look at some of the ways how:

*1. Don’t buy if you don’t plan to stay*
If you can’t commit to remaining in one place for at least a few years,
then owning is probably not for you, at least not yet. With the
transaction costs of buying and selling a home, you may end up losing
money if you sell any sooner — even in a rising market. When prices are
falling, it’s an even worse proposition.

*2. Start by shoring up your credit*
Since you probably will need to get a mortgage to buy a house, you must
make sure your credit history is as clean as possible. A few months
before you start house hunting, get copies of your credit report. Make
sure the facts are correct, and fix any problems you discover.

*3. Choose carefully between points and rate*
When picking a mortgage, you usually have the option of paying
additional points- a portion of the interest that you pay at closing- in
exchange for a lower interest rate. If you stay in the house for a long
time- say three to five years or more- it’s usually a better deal to
take the points. The lower interest rate will save you more in the long run.

*4. Hire a home inspector*
A home inspector can let you know if you’re about to buy a lemon of a
house or warn you about potential problems. At best, you can move into
the house confident that it’s in good shape; at worst, the inspector’s
report can let you back out of the deal if the house has major,
unexpected problems. Most typically, the home inspection can allow you
to negotiate the home price to account for necessary repairs.

*5. Get professional help*
Even though the Internet gives buyers unprecedented access to home
listings, most new buyers (and many more experienced ones) are better
off using a professional agent. Look for an exclusive buyer agent, if
possible, who will have your interests at heart and can help you with
strategies during the bidding process.

*6. Bonus Tip: Be patient*
Buying a home is one of the largest purchases most people will make in
their lifetime. The key to avoiding buyer’s remorse is to be completely
comfortable before signing on the dotted line.

Pending Home Sales on an Upswing

Thursday, May 6th, 2010

RISMEDIA, May 5, 2010—Pending home sales increased again in March
2010, affirming that a surge of home sales is unfolding for the spring
home buying season, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) forward-looking indicator based on
contracts signed in March, rose 5.3% to 102.9 from 97.7 in February, and
is 21.1% above March 2009 when it was 85.0; this follows an 8.3%
increase in February. The data reflects contracts and not closings,
which usually occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable affordability
conditions have been working with the tax credit. “Clearly the home
buyer tax credit has helped stabilize the market. In the months
immediately following the expiration of the tax credit, we expect
measurably lower sales,” he said. “Later in the second half of the year,
and into 2011, home sales will likely become self-sustaining if the
economy can add jobs at a respectable pace, and from a return of buyer
demand as they see home values stabilizing.”

The PHSI in the Northeast declined 3.3% to 75.1 in March but remains
27.2% higher than March 2009. In the Midwest the index increased 1.2% to
98.9 and is 18.5% above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South
jumped 12.7% to an index of 121.2, which is 28.3% higher than March
2009. In the West the index rose 1.9% to 99.9 and is 8.8% above a year ago.

“Another encouraging sign is the improvement in the availability for
jumbo and second-home mortgages,” Yun said. “As bank balance sheets
strengthen, it is just a matter of time before lending of
non-government-backed mortgages steadily opens up.”

The National Association of Realtors, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is
one of America’s largest trade associations, representing 1.1 million
members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real
estate industries.

The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing
sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as
pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not
closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of
signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing
about 20% of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the
model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly
sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home
sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship
between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and
year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity
during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the
first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.

For more information, visit www.realtor.org ^[2] .

RISMedia welcomes your questions and comments. Send your e-mail to:
realestatemagazinefeedback@rismedia.com

Many Stay at Home for Free as Banks Defer Evictions

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

It’s been 16 months since Eugene and
Patricia Harrison last paid the mortgage on their Perris, Calif., home.
Eleven months since the notice got slapped on their front door, warning
that it would be sold at auction.

A terse letter from a lawyer came eight months ago, telling them that
their lender now owned the house. Three months later, the bank told them
to pay up or get out by the end of the week.

Still, they remain in the yellow ranch-style home they bought seven
years ago for $128,000, with its views of the San Jacinto Mountains.
They’re not planning on going anywhere.

“We’re kind of on pins and needles, but who’d want to leave when you put
this kind of energy into a house?” said Eugene Harrison, gesturing
toward a bucolic mural of mountains, stream and flowers the couple
painted on the living room wall.

Throughout the country, people continue to default on their home
loans—but lenders have backed off on forced evictions, allowing many
to remain in their homes, essentially rent-free.

Several factors are driving the trend, industry experts say, including
government pressure on banks to modify loans and keep people in their
homes. And with a glut of inventory in places like Southern California’s
Inland Empire, Nevada and Arizona, lenders are loath to depress housing
prices further by dumping more properties into a weak market.

Finally, allowing borrowers to stay in their homes helps protect the
bank’s investment as it negotiates with the homeowners, said Gary
Kirshner, a spokesman for Chase bank, a major lender. “If the person’s
in the property, there’s less chance for vandalism, and they’re probably
maintaining the house,” he said.

Economists say the situation won’t last forever, but in the meantime the
“amnesty” may allow at least some homeowners to regain their financial
footing and avoid eviction.

In the Inland Empire, an estimated 100,000 homeowners are living
rent-free, according to economist John Husing, who based that number on
the difference between loan delinquencies and foreclosures. Industry
experts say it’s difficult to say how many families are in that
situation nationally because only banks know for sure how many customers
have stopped paying entirely.

But Rick Sharga of Irvine, Calif., data tracker RealtyTrac notes that
the number of loans in which the borrower hasn’t made a payment in 90
days or more but is not in foreclosure is at 5.1% nationally, a record
high. And yet the number of foreclosures last year was 2.9 million,
below the 3.2 million that RealtyTrac economists predicted.

More evidence is provided by another firm, ForeclosureRadar, which says
it now takes an average of 229 days for a bank to foreclose on a home in
California after sending a notice of default, up from 146 days in August
2008.

“For some reason, banks are being more lenient with homeowners who are
behind on their loans,” Sharga said. “Whether it’s a strategy to try and
slow down the volume of foreclosures or simply a matter of the banks
being able to keep up with volume is something that banks only know for
sure.”

Lenders say the trend reflects their efforts to work with borrowers to
modify loans to avoid foreclosure. Bank of America “continues to exhaust
every possible option to qualify customers for modification or other
solutions,” spokeswoman Jumana Bauwens said.

Some lenders are making it a policy to partner with delinquent
borrowers. Citibank said this month that it would let borrowers on the
brink of foreclosure stay at their homes for six months, whether or not
they make payments, if they turn over their property deed. Such policies
may partly reflect the fact that lenders can’t keep up with all the
foreclosures, some say. “The mortgage lenders are so backlogged that
some people are able to slip through the cracks,” said Kathryn Davis, a
real estate agent at America’s Real Estate Advocates in Corona.

That was apparently the case for the Harrisons, who were told at various
times that their house had been sold, that it belonged to someone else
and that it was empty. “It’s been frustrating,” said Eugene Harrison.

The Harrisons missed their first payment in October 2008, shortly after
Patricia Harrison lost her job as a healthcare aide and her husband’s
part-time towing work dried up. They said they applied for a loan
modification but were told that they couldn’t receive one until they
were three months behind on their payments. So they stopped paying.

In April 2009, they received a notice warning them that their property
“may be sold at a public sale,” and in July, they were told their house
was a bank-owned property.

The bank sent a notice by FedEx in October demanding $3,000, and when
the Harrisons called to discuss this notice, they were told they had
four days to vacate the house.

Panicked, they arranged to stay with family in New Mexico and started
packing their things, filling their garage with boxes of books, camping
equipment and art. But no one came to kick them out. “We were afraid to
leave the house, afraid the sheriff was going to come,” said Patricia.

After contacting consumer advocates about their situation, the Harrisons
decided to stay put. Soon after, two men in a white pickup truck showed
up at the house and peeped in the windows, telling the Harrisons that
they thought the house was abandoned. The Harrisons suspected they were
planning to move in themselves and chased them away.

As they wade through the red tape, the Harrisons can’t imagine
abandoning a house where they’ve left their mark in the goldenrod and
potpourri rose walls, the new fixtures and stenciling in the bathrooms,
the fruit trees planted in the yard.

Although the Harrisons’ future is uncertain, industry observers agree
that the rent-free life can’t last forever. As home values climb, banks
will find it financially advantageous to foreclose on delinquent
borrowers and sell their properties.

“In many cases, particularly in California, people owe a boatload of
payments, and no bank is going to forgive that,” said Guy Cecala, editor
of Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication.

In Diamond Bar, the Fraguere family is finally moving on after living
rent-free for 18 months. Job loss and other setbacks prevented them from
paying their mortgage, but they say they didn’t hear anything from the
bank until a real estate agent showed up at their door last month saying
she was going to sell their house.

Sandy Fraguere wasn’t surprised that it had taken the bank so long to
ask them to move. “I don’t think they really knew what was going on or
who was there,” she said.

Next stop for the Fragueres is a hotel, where they plan to stay for two
weeks until their apartment in Chino Hills is ready for them to move in.
Their dogs are being boarded and their belongings stored until they can
retrieve them someday. The Fragueres have started saying goodbye to
their neighbors, adding yet another empty house to a block that has
already seen two other families forced to pack up and leave.

(c) 2010, Los Angeles Times.

Foreclousres in Rainier Washington

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

Homeowners defaulting on
mortgages today may be surprised to learn years from now that they still
owe thousands of dollars—and a collection agency is coming after them
to get it.

That’s because lenders have been quietly selling second mortgages and
home equity lines left unpaid after foreclosures and short sales. The
buyers: collection agencies, which in some states have years to make a
claim. If they win court judgments, these collectors could have years to
pursue borrowers with repayment plans, and even garnish their wages,
said Scott CoBen, a Sacramento bankruptcy attorney.

“The only relief a consumer will have is entering into a debt
negotiating plan or filing for bankruptcy,” said Sylvia Alayon, a vice
president with the New York-based Consumer Mortgage Audit Center. The
firm provides mortgage analysis to lenders, advocacy groups and attorneys.

The phenomenon suggests an ominous, looming echo of today’s real estate
meltdown. As debt collectors surely seek at least partial repayment of
millions of dollars in unpaid home loans, some say renewed financial
stresses on tens of thousands of local consumers could dampen economic
recovery.

“I think there will be a lot of unhappy people when it hits,” said
CoBen. “We saw this in the ’90s. This is not really new. Just when you
think you’re back on your feet, you’re making money and the economy’s
good, they hit you with this.”

Alayon said most people are so stressed out and exhausted by trying to
save their homes today that they are unaware they could face another hit
later. And many who are losing homes don’t get the advice necessary to
prevent future fallout, say nonprofit loan counselors.

“You’ve got tens of thousands of people in California who have this
hanging over their heads who don’t even know it,” said Scott Thompson,
principal at for-profit Mortgage Resolution Services in Carmichael,
Calif. He fears a new wave of bankruptcies might flatten people just
starting to recover from losing their homes.

“So many of these are people with 750 or 800 credit scores who made a
bad decision,” said Thompson. “Or they’re people who suffered income
cuts. These are people, in terms of the economy, whom we need to
participate.”

But an entire industry is gearing up to buy their debt at deep discounts
and collect what they can, Alayon said. “It’s a big business and
investors are coming out of the woodwork. It’s a very lucrative
business,” she said. Real estate insiders and financial players know it
as “scratch and dent.”

Regionally, no one knows for sure how much unpaid debt is on the line.
CoBen said people who used their borrowings for a traditional loan on a
house in which they lived generally have little to worry about. But
borrowers may be vulnerable in years ahead—generally, those who
defaulted not only on their first mortgage but also on a home equity
loan or second mortgage.

In California, banks can’t collect from borrowers for primary, so-called
“first-lien,” loans that go unpaid. When a house is foreclosed or sold
through a short sale, the lender of the first loan gets the house back
or the proceeds from another buyer.

But banks also made thousands of “second-lien” loans, including those
used to finance 20% down payments during the housing boom. A separate
category of “seconds” includes home equity loans and home equity lines
of credit. Nationally, about 3.4% of those loans are currently
delinquent, according to Foresight.

Owners are generally, but not always, on the hook for the second loans
left over from a foreclosure or short sale. Most investor mortgages,
too, leave the borrower liable for potential unpaid debt. In many short
sales, experienced real estate agents or attorneys can negotiate away
debt obligations for the second-lien loan. But many inexperienced
borrowers don’t know that, and sign final-hour agreements giving lenders
the right to pursue them later.

“Seek advice,” counseled Doug Robinson, spokesman for national nonprofit
mortgage counselor NeighborWorks America. He said nonprofit counselors
can help. “Often when you work with a real estate agent, they’re not
really equipped to handle the repercussions. They’re set up to make the
sale,” he said.

Government forces are already moving to limit potential damage to
millions now struggling with home loans. A new Obama administration
short sale program aims to prevent banks that hold second-lien loans
from pursuing collections from homeowners after the short sale. It goes
into effect April 5, 2010 and works this way: Sellers will receive
notice that their servicer has steered part of the sales proceeds to
secondary lien holders “in exchange for release and full satisfaction of
their liens.” This release would apply only to short sales done through
the administration’s Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives program.

In California, Democratic state Sen. Ellen Corbett recently introduced
SB 1178, which would expand California’s protections for some people who
refinance and take on a second mortgage.

People who refinance, but use the funds to improve their homes or to
stay in their homes with a better interest rate, would be protected.
Lenders could not seek court judgments to collect from these borrowers
in the event of foreclosure or short sales.

“If you refinance a property and aren’t using the money for personal
reasons, you shouldn’t lose your personal protections,” said California
Association of Realtors lobbyist Alex Creel. He said the idea has been
around for years but has become more urgent as thousands lose income and
fall into mortgage trouble. The bill would apply to all foreclosures or
short sales that occur after it becomes law. It doesn’t matter when the
loan was made, Creel said. SB 1178 is still in the early stages of
consideration. It must clear both houses of the Legislature and be
signed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger by Sept. 30 in order to take effect.

(c) 2010, The Sacramento Bee (Sacramento, Calif.).

Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

Is It the Beginning of the End for Housing Crisis?

Tuesday, March 9th, 2010

-A smaller percentage of mortgages
were delinquent and the rate of those entering the foreclosure process
slowed in the fourth quarter of 2009, possible signs that the
foreclosure crisis that has gripped many of the nation’s housing markets
is finally starting to ease, a trade group has reported.

“We are likely seeing the beginning of the end of the unprecedented wave
of mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures that started with the
subprime defaults in early 2007,” said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of
the Mortgage Bankers Association, in a written statement.

The delinquency rate for mortgages on one- to four-unit residential
properties was a seasonally adjusted 9.47% of all mortgages outstanding
in the fourth quarter, down from 9.64% in the third quarter and up from
7.88% in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the MBA’s quarterly
delinquency survey.

Delinquencies include mortgages that are at least one payment or more
past due but not yet in foreclosure.

Meanwhile, 1.2% of outstanding mortgages entered the foreclosure process
in the fourth quarter, down from 1.42% in the third quarter and up from
1.08% in the fourth quarter of 2008. The percentage of mortgages at some
point in the foreclosure process at the end of the fourth quarter was
4.58%, up from 4.47% in the third quarter and 3.3% in the fourth quarter
of 2008.

The MBA survey covers about 44.4 million loans on one- to four-unit
residential properties, or about 85% of all first-lien residential
mortgage loans that are outstanding in the country. No doubt, the
foreclosure nightmare isn’t over yet.

The percentages of loans 90 days or more past due and loans in
foreclosure process set record highs in the fourth quarter, according to
the report. Many of those loans more than 90 days past due are in loan
modification programs, and some of them have been seriously delinquent
for months waiting for modifications to get finalized.

But the good news is there are fewer problem loans actually entering
delinquency—likely a result of fewer layoffs, Brinkmann said. “We
normally see a large spike in short-term mortgage delinquencies at the
end of the year due to heating bills, Christmas expenditures and other
seasonal factors. Not only did we not see that spike but the 30-day
delinquencies actually fell by 16 basis points from 3.79% to 3.63%,” he
said. He added that the non-seasonally adjusted 30-day delinquency rate
has only dropped three times in the past between the third and fourth
quarter—”and never by this magnitude.”

Depending on the fate of seriously delinquent mortgages—whether they
are cured with modifications or ultimately enter foreclosure—the
percentage of mortgages somewhere in the foreclosure process could start
to see a gradual decline in the second half of the year, he said during
a conference call with reporters.

If normal seasonal patterns hold, there could be a bigger drop in the
30-day delinquency rate in the first quarter of 2010, Brinkmann said.
That would be a positive sign for the months and years ahead. “The
continued and sizable drop in the 30-day delinquency rate is a concrete
sign that the end may be in sight,” he said. “With fewer new loans going
bad, the pool of seriously delinquent loans and foreclosures will
eventually begin to shrink once the rate at which these problems are
resolved exceeds the rate at which new problems come in. “It also gives
us growing confidence that the size of the problem now is about as bad
as it will get,” he said.

According to the MBA data, Florida was the most problematic state, in
terms of delinquencies. Twenty-six percent of Florida mortgages were one
payment or more past due at the end of the year, and 20.4% of mortgages
in the state were 90 days or more past due or already in the foreclosure
process.

Rainier Real Estate: Federal Reserve: Expect business to pick up in these regions

Thursday, August 20th, 2009

I would like to highlight the following article written by Jim Giuliano.

Based on activity among its member institutions, the Federal Reserve has released its predictions on which parts of the country are likely to see a rise, or a drop, in business.

The predictions come out of the Fed’s “Beige Book” breakdown of economic conditions in the 12 Federal Reserve Bank districts marked by cities. When the economic conditions show signs of increase, that’s usually followed by an increase in jobs.

Some highlights from the report:

*The New York, Cleveland, Kansas City, MO, and San Francisco regions are showing “signs of stabilization.”
*Chicago and St. Louis reported that the pace of economic decline appeared to be “moderating.”
*Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta and Dallas described activity as “slow,” “subdued” or “weak.”
*Minneapolis was the only region that indicated its downward slide in economic activity had worsened.

That’s the overall picture. The Fed also breaks down activity in economic sectors. For instance:

*Boston, Kansas City and San Francisco reported retail activity described as “modest increases or less negative.”
*Philadelphia, Atlanta, St. Louis, New York and Dallas regions reported “flat or mixed sales.” The remaining Fed regions described retail sales as “soft.”
*Auto sales were mixed; travel and tourism was down almost across the board.
*For manufacturing, Richmond, Chicago and Kansas City showed some improvement. St. Louis and Dallas said the rate of decline in factory activity is moderating. The Philadelphia and Minneapolis regions saw manufacturing activity drop, while the rest of the regions described activity at “low levels.”
*Residential real estate remained “soft” in most Fed regions, and commercial real estate dropped.

In a related story, the U.S. Department of Labor issued its report on what it calls the Employment Cost Index – essentially, the rise or fall in what it costs employers to provide wages and benefits.

DOL’s statistics for the 2nd quarter of ’09 show a rise of 0.3%, about the same as the figure for the 1st quarter. That measurement nearly matches the 0.2% figure estimated by economic forecaster Global Insight.

5 Cities Where Housing — and Economy — Still Dropping

Monday, July 13th, 2009

by Jim Giuliano

At least for now, the economies, and business, in these five cities and their surrounding areas don’t appear to be rebounding, especially in one market that saw its worst decline ever.

Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index shows that the slide in housing prices eased in most markets in February and March – and that’s good news. The index and data from the National Association of Realtors painted a different picture for five major markets in the United States, indicating that business in general in those markets is still seeking a bottom before rebounding.

The five down-trending markets:

Detroit
Housing prices fell 4.9% in Detroit in March, according to the latest figures in the Case-Shiller Index. That marked the city’s largest monthly decline since January 1991, when S&P’s began data collection. Houses in Detroit are selling at about what they cost in 1995, and could go lower.

New York City
In March, the Big Apple saw its largest-ever monthly decline, at 2.5%. The interesting part of the trend is that until March, the city had avoided the steep decline in prices that afflicted many other metro areas. Then the bottom fell – and it appears it’ll keep falling.

Economists speculate that the layoffs and reorganizations in the financial markets are just beginning to have a long-lasting effect on New York.

Phoenix
Homeowners in Phoenix, dizzy from a 53% drop in prices from their peak in June 2006, are likely to see further declines, as shown in March, when prices  fell 4.5%.

Phoenix is the poster city for rampant Sunbelt overbuilding that took place in the last 10 years. The hope is that such cities are still attractive to those looking to make a move when the economy picks up. The reality is that the city hasn’t reached that point yet.

Portland, OR
The Pacific Northwest remains a desirable place to live, witnessed by the fact that Portland’s home prices are above the national average. That market may be threatened, however, as prices fell 2.1% in March. (Home prices in Seattle were down 2.0%.)

The culprit: a lagging local job market. Portland’s unemployment rate was 11.6% in April, well above the national average of 8.9% for the month.

Minneapolis
The dubious “winner” in the worst-market sweepstakes was Minneapolis, where prices fell 6.1% in March, the largest monthly decline of any metro area since data tracking began in 1987.

What fueled the drop: More than half of all March home sales in Minneapolis were due to foreclosures, mostly “short sales,” according to the Federal Reserve Board. When a lot of houses get sold for less than what the seller originally paid, the indicators are bad for housing and economic prospects in general.

Market Recap

  • Avg. Sales Price: 379,000

  • Avg. Days on Market: 69

Free Market Alerts

Get local reports delivered to you

 
Recently Asked Questions
    market alert newsletter

    Get free market reports delivered to you. » Sign up today

    - Copyright © 2010 Inside Real Estate, LLC

    Inside Real Estate does not endorse the agents on this site, and does not guarantee the content submitted by the site's members. Blog and page entries, content, and other information contributed by agents that are members of the site are accountable to the particular agent. Inside Real Estate and Omnia Alliance LLC take no accountability for the content contributed by members to the site.