“From my viewpoint, both home sales and home prices have reached the point of equilibrium. A slightly more tilt this or that way will naturally be at play always but the tilting will be not that eventful. Over the next five years, expect home sales to rise by about 2 percent annually. This growth rate is higher than the projected population or projected job growth rate. But part of the increase will come from a recovery in the second-home market. As for prices, do not expect any robust gains. At best home price appreciation will beat CPI inflation by one percentage point.

How will this impact the real estate industry? Based on these sales and price projections, the gross industry revenue from residential home sales will rise steadily. The industry revenue for last year is estimated at $49 billion, the lowest in eight years. I project $52 billion in 2010. Further increases are in the cards in the subsequent years with about $70 billion set for 2015. (These estimates are at the national level.) Still, revenue will be far short of the $85 billion generated during the frenzied and unsustainable period in 2005.”

It appears from Lawrence Yun’s housing market predictions, that the housing market should experience a slow, but steady increase in home price sales over the next five years.

“…There are some cautionary signs ahead. A big, albeit temporary, slump is on the way. Contract signings for May and June will be very weak. Do not be at all surprised if the pace of existing-home sales falls to 10-year lows of around 4.5 million annualized units for a couple of months before the housing market tries to get back on its own feet absent any government stimulus. If resales bounce back to a 5.5 million unit annualized pace toward year’s end then the housing market can be said to be fully back on a healthy track. It will be well short of the 7 million unit sales set in 2005, but that was an artificially fired-up figure resulting from terribly lax mortgage underwriting standards and a sizable number of speculative home purchases.

Getting back to 5.5 million annual existing-home sales will correspond to the level of home sales back in 2001. Back then, there were 130 million payroll job holders in the country. Today the worst in the job market appears to have passed. Excluding the artificial Census-related jobs, the private sector still added 495,000 in the first five months of this year and the total employment stands also at 130 million.

One big difference in the housing market now versus then is mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed rate so far this year has averaged around 5.0 percent, compared to the average 7.0 percent rate in 2001. And while underwriting standards were not very stringent in 2001, they were not necessarily lax either. Provided that mortgage rates remain reasonable favorable for the foreseeable future – that is, remain at or under 6 percent – and if jobs continue to be added to the economy – my forecast is for 1 million new jobs in the second half of the year and another 2 million in 2011 – then home sales should easily be able to churn out a 5.5 million unit annual sales pace. Remember that total sales were 4.9 million in 2008 and 5.2 million in 2009, so settling in at 5.5 million will be a respectable improvement from the past two years.”

The fixed 30 year interest rates are holding under 5% which should help us on our way to the 5.5 million that will be a positive step in the right direction for home sales.

INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE  Tuesday, June Housing Starts came in down 5.0% from May to a 549,000 annual rate. This was below expectations, but still up 15.1% from the low they hit in April 2009. Most of the drop came from volatile multi-family starts. Single-family starts were down a mere 0.7%. Most significantly, housing completions shot up 26.2% in June, the biggest monthly gain going back to the late 1960′s. Builders clearly shifted focus from starting to finishing, as they pushed to close sales qualifying for the homebuyer tax credit. Finally, Building Permits were UP 2.1% for June, beating expectations, so things are looking up for the months ahead.

Thursday saw June Existing Home Sales down 5.1% to an annual rate of 5.37 million. But this beat expectations for the fourth time in five months and was 9.8% above sales a year ago. The median price for an existing home also gained in June, coming in at $183,700. This is up 1.0% from last year. In addition, the FHFA price index for homes financed by conforming mortgages went up 0.5% in May, increasing for the third month in a row.

National average rates for fixed rate mortgages hit new lows, according to Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of conforming loans. So refinance applications shot up 7.6% over the week before, but best of all, purchase loan applications were also up a healthy 3.4%.

It is a great time to buy or invest in the real estate market.  Why?  the average rates for fixed rate mortgages are below 5%,  most sellers have reduced the price they want on their homes to meet current market demands and there are still plenty of short sales and bank owned properties.  Now is the time for buyers in the American Fork, Utah County housing market!

The Commerce Department reported recently that overall housing starts fell 10% from April, while building permits were down 5.9%. The biggest hit in starts came in the single-family sector—down 17.2% from April. Still, both overall starts and permits were up from a year ago, 7.8% and 4.4%, respectively.

“The plunge in housing starts in May underlines that a sustained housing rebound has yet to get under way,” said economist Nigel Gault, of IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Mass. “The improvement in starts through April was driven by the extended tax credit, which expired April 30. Now, the credit is gone.”

Although interest rates remain low—fixed 30-year mortgage rates are under 5%—and prices have declined enough since the peak of the national real estate boom in 2006 to make purchases affordable, Gault said credit remains tight and the market continues to be overstocked with homes.

National Association of Home Builders chief economist David Crowe said, “No doubt, a certain amount of building and buying activity that would have taken place in May was pulled forward to accommodate the tax-credit program’s end date, which is why we have projected some softening of the numbers.”

Sales of both newly constructed and previously owned homes began to slump almost immediately after the April 30 tax-credit deadline.

Naroff said the May decrease in building permits indicates that “builders are trying to keep inventory under control.” But Crowe of the builders’ association suggested that there would be more houses under construction if lenders would loosen their purse strings. “Ongoing difficulties builders are having in obtaining financing for viable new projects are complicating factors that are slowing the industry’s recovery,” Crowe said.

The second quarter stats for American Fork and Utah County will be interesting to review to see any correlation with the national statistics for residential-construction statistics.  Currently, it is difficult to sell land in American Fork and Utah County, especially lots,  due to the difficulty of builders and buyers in securing a construction loan.  Builders are waiting to build until they have a client and a construction loan.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said she also wanted to make this clear: “This amendment does not extend the deadline for home buyers to qualify for the tax credit; it extends the deadline for closing the transaction, from June 30 to Sept. 30. Since these applications were already in the pipeline and figured into the program’s cost, the extension of the closing deadline should not incur any further government costs.”

Courtesy of  UCAR (Utah County Association of Realtors) Weekly, June, 2010

I personally give thanks for this measure introduced by the Senators to extend the Federal Tax Credit deadline for those buyers under contract until September 30, 2010 in order for them to qualify for the Federal Tax Credit of $8,000.  It isn’t the buyer that is holding up the process, it’s the lender.

Whether you have had recent credit struggles, or are just trying to build up enough credit to qualify for a mortgage to purchase or refinance a home, here are some helpful tips.

Your credit score is calculated on information obtained from your personal credit file.  This information is then analyzed in five different categories to produce your three-digit FICO® score.

Payment History: 35% of your score is based on paying your credit related accounts on time. Late payments or slow pays can drop your score quickly.

Credit Utilization: 30% of your score is based on how much credit you have and how you are using it.  If you are close to utilizing the entire amount of your credit limit on a credit card or line of credit, it can reflect negatively on your credit score.

Length of Credit History: 15% of your score is based on good payment history over a period of time.

New Credit and Inquiries: 10% of your score is based on the number of recent inquiries and opened accounts coming from creditors. If you want to minimize the damage from credit inquiries, make sure that when you shop for a mortgage you do so in a fairly short period of time. The FICO® score treats multiple inquiries in a 45-day period as just one inquiry and ignores all inquiries made within 30 days prior to the day the score is computed.

Types of Credit: 10% of your score is based on having a variety of credit accounts such as a home mortgage, auto loans, credit cards, etc.

Overall the best way you can improve your credit score is to:  Correct errors. Pay your bills on time. Pay down your debt. And apply for credit sparingly.

Very helpful information for buyers given by UCAR Weekly, June 14, 2010.

“Consumers today are looking to ‘remodel lite’- that is, refresh a room with only a few items and with a minimal investment,” says Jack Suvak, director of market research and insights at Moen. “But at the same time, they want their home improvement project to make a significant impact on their home, in terms of both style and functionality.”

To avoid becoming overwhelmed, break your bathroom up into smaller sections and projects. By thinking of your space in these smaller sections, goals will become more attainable.

Storage and space

While you can’t easily add more square footage to your bathroom for extra storage, little things can make a difference. Adding new accessories, such as a towel bar, towel bar hooks, a towel ring, shelves and robe hooks can easily and inexpensively provide additional space and storage for your necessities … and add a bit of style.

“You can change the look and functionality of your bath for less than $100 just by adding accessories,” says Tim Bitterman, group marketing manager of Creative Specialties International, the accessories division of Moen Incorporated. “With designer finishes, such as brushed nickel and oil-rubbed bronze – and unique accessories, such as hotel shelves or new towel bar hooks – your bath can be more beautiful with more useful storage in no time.”

Moen recently introduced several new accessory collections, such as the modern Method collection and the more transitional Sage collection in an oil-rubbed bronze finish. But no matter what your style – bath accessories will add a beautiful and functional update.

Color

After focusing on new finishes for your accessories, take your bathroom from blah to beautiful with a splash of color. Cool colors can create a calm, serene environment, while darker colors can be warm and inviting. And once you’ve updated the walls, consider perking up the cabinets, trim and hardware with a touch of spray paint for a final finished look.

Sensational showers

Your shower can be many things – rejuvenating, cleansing, soothing – but it should always be enjoyable. Add more space in the shower with a curved shower rod. Switching from a straight rod to one that curves outward can add up to 7 inches of elbow room – not to mention immeasurable style. Next, finish off your shower with a multi-function showerhead, such as Moen’s Inspire (a “best buy” from a leading consumer magazine) or Home Care by Moen’s hand-held shower with innovative palm grip. Soon you’ll be singing a happier tune in the shower.

Soft and subtle touches

The bathroom is filled with hard, slick surfaces – so be sure to add a variety of plush, soft accents. Fabric shower curtains, window valances, rugs and towels in coordinating colors will be the final finishing touches for a chic and appealing look in your newly “remodeled-lite” bath. For more information about Moen bath accessories or showerheads to begin your bathroom update, visit moen.com or call (800) BUY-MOEN (800-289-6636).

Courtesy of my newsletter, June, 2010

Stabilizing home prices are encouraging. This flattening in home prices is something we’ve been seeing in all of the home price measures lately.  The tax credit has been very effective in drawing down excess inventory, with about one million additional sales resulting directly from the stimulus. The figures also point to a change in market psychology. The economy is improving; even recent jobs numbers were encouraging. That is helping to return confidence among buyers.

But there are still challenges. The housing market continues to held back from a full-fledged recovery because of mortgage issues. According to findings published in the new 2010 NAR Member Profile, one third of NAR members report that obtaining a mortgage is the most important factor limiting potential clients from purchasing a home. In addition, the REALTORS® Confidence Index (posted online on April 26 2010) reveals that 11 percent of REALTORS® had a contract canceled because an appraisal came in at less than the price negotiated between a buyer and seller. Another 16 percent report a contract had to be renegotiated because of a low appraisal. NAR leaders and staff will continue their discussions with about these other issues with government and industry leaders to insure that housing remains at the forefront of economic policy decisions.

Reprinted from REALTOR® Magazine May 2010 with permission of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. Copyright 2010. All rights reserved.

In American Fork, we have seen a drop in listings and sales since the Federal Tax Credit ended.  The median price is American Fork for home sales dropped from $230,000 in the first quarter of 2009 to $187,000 in the first quarter of 2010.  Hopefully, the tax credit will be extended for those buyers who were under contract before April 30, 2010.  The deadline for closing was June 30, 2010; however, many short sales have not given written approval yet or it appears will not before that deadline.   The extension of this deadline will be helpful for those buyers in that situation.

The latest figures on metropolitan area home prices have been released by NAR and they show that a growing number of metropolitan areas are experiencing price gains from a year ago. At the same time, most states posted healthy gains in home sales from the first quarter of 2009.

In the first quarter of 2010, 91 out of 152 metropolitan statistical areas showed year-over-year increases in the median sales price of existing single-family homes. Twenty-nine of those metros registered double-digit increases. In the fourth quarter 67 areas reported gains. On a national basis, the median existing single-family home price was fairly flat at $166,100, down 0.7 percent from the first quarter 2009. Distressed homes, which typically are discounted by 15 percent relative to traditional homes, accounted for 36 percent of first quarter sales.

As far as American Fork in Utah County goes (taken from the Wasatch Front Regional Multiple Listing Service stats) comparing 2009 1st quarter to 2010 1st quarter – homes in American Fork:

Cumulative Days on the Market  in 2009, 127 days; in 2010 83 days.  All number sold in 2009, 42 compared to 50 in 2010.  All median sold price in 2009, $227,500 compared to $191,450 in 2010.  New listings in 2009 were 134 compared to 160 in 2010.  The new median asking price in 2009 was $230,000 compared to $$187,000 in 2010.  Homes sold faster in American Fork the 1st Quarter in 2009, but more homes were listed in 2010 and the median asking price dropped considerably.  Most of these stats for home sales are apparent due to the Federal Tax Credit.

Read the following by Yun:

“Now that the housing market is truly on its own, what can we expect? In the immediate months following the tax credit expiration date, home sales will slide measurably lower. By autumn of 2010, it will be up to job creation and consumer confidence to do the trick in supporting the housing market. Another potentially big demand source is that from improving funding for jumbo and second-home mortgages. These segments of the housing market were essentially shut down last year because these mortgages did not have government backing and the banks were scrambling to boost their capital to be well beyond the ‘stress-test’ levels. As a result we saw much bigger swings in the second-home market. Second home sales in 2009, for example, were down 55 percent from their peak level in 2005. Primary home sales, meanwhile, declined by “only” 23 percent over the same period. The good news is that in the recent past months steadily improving signs of increased lending for jumbo and second-home mortgages have been appearing. That is not surprising given the huge profits and much improved capital situation in the banking sector. Banks are steadily moving towards more normal lending activity even to the sectors that do not have government backing. Therefore, there could be a nice swing back of high-end jumbo home sales and vacation home sales this year. ”

We will need to watch the Greece crisis as it affects many other countries and eventually the USA per bail out money and the containment of the oil spill in the Gulf as it will affect our country’s economy.