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Tom Crowe
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Archive for March 2009

What To Look For in the Housing Market

Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

I have talked before about timing the market to achieve the best interest rate and what the challenges are in doing that.  Mostly, not even the most knowledgeable buyer can do that.  That said, here is what I would look for in terms of events that the market has stabilized and ready for an uptick in either housing prices or interest rates.

First of all, you must realize that all of this borrowing by the federal government is at sometime going to result in inflation and that in itself will increase mortgage interest rates.  I remember the period in the seventies when inflation was high and you could get 19+% on a CD.  This was also a time when interest on credit cards was tax deductible.  Then came the 80′s and a change in presidents.  Inflation was put on notice that it would no longer be tolerated and interest rates skyrocketed to a high of 21%.  I personally saw mortgage rates climb to 18%.  It was kind of like the inverse of what is happening now.  Rates are historically low, but jobs a scarce.  If I were going to play the market and try to maximize the interest rate on a home mortgage I would look at employment rates and claims for unemployment benefits.

Once we start recreating jobs mortgage interest rates will start to climb and the opportunity will be gone.  For how long?…nobody knows.  Track unemployment rates by state and see how employment rates are progressing in the State of Michigan.  Another thing that will affect housing prices is the direct connection between average incomes and the price of housing.  This will occur when the next census is taken and the resulting demographics for an area will show these financial statistics.

Allen Park Market Update

Friday, March 27th, 2009

The first quarter of any real estate market is always slower than the traditional house selling time that starts with spring and traditionally ends with the start of school.  Earlier this year I displayed average Allen Park sales prices and average days on the market that were pretty low.  They were so low that my webmaster questioned these Allen Park sales as being a misprint.  Now I can report a significant increase in the average Allen Park sales price and a lower average days on market.  Look at the upper right hand corner of this page to see what I mean.

Since Allen Park is divided into three separate school districts a clearer pictures can be drawn by separating the list/sale numbers by school district:

Mel-Nap School District:
Active Listings:
53  Ave. List Price:  $82,760  Ave. Days On Market:  141
Sold Private Owner:
2  Ave. Sale Price:  $30,625 Ave. Days On Market:  114
Sold Foreclosure:
3 Ave. Sale Price $39,933 Ave. Days On Market:  104

Allen Park School District:
Active Listings:
11 Ave. List Price:  $64,255  Ave. Days On Market:  73
Sold Private Owner:
6 Ave. Sale Price:  $84,700 Ave. Days On Market:  61
Sold Foreclosure:
9 Ave Sale Price:  $69,756  Ave. Days On Market:  65

Southgate School System:
Active Listings:
7 Ave List Price:  $148,357  Ave. Days On Market 104
Sold Private Owner:
2 Ave. Sale Price:  $162,450  Ave. Days On Market 93
Sold Foreclosure:
1 Ave. Sale Price:  $240,000  Ave. Days On Market:  217

This information is taken from the RealComp Multi-Listing Service and is deemed to be correct, but not guaranteed.

Federal Reserve Lowering Mortgage Rates?

Tuesday, March 24th, 2009

From what I am hearing the Federal Reserve is buying long term bonds with the anticipated result to lower mortgage rates.  Currently hovering just under 5%, some think mortgage rates could go to 4%.  However, waiting for this to happen could be dangerous because when the Fed decides it’s time to balance their balance sheet the opportunity will be gone for some time to come.  Like I have said in other posts:  “What the government “giveth”, the government “taketh” away.

There are many changes taking place in the mortgage market to restrict perceived dangers.  One of which is eliminating PMI (private mortgage insurance) on condominiums.  This rule does not apply to FHA loans, but the condominium association must be on the FHA approved condo list.  At this point I don’t know how these changes are going to affect our Southeast Michigan housing market (I don’t think it will help), but the cure to all of our financial ills is jobs and jobs that will allow funding of a mortgage.

March is Slow For The Real Estate Market

Tuesday, March 10th, 2009

Even though we know, or at least think, foreclosures are bringing home values down, let’s just look at what privately owned home sales are selling for in this real estate market.  Last month I reported that home sales were selling in the mid-60′s.  This is a huge drop from the hay day of only 2 years ago when the average sales price in Allen Park was $147,000.

Looking at February homes sales I decided to look at only those that were privately owned instead of the entire Allen Park real estate market that would include bank, HUD and other 3rd party sales.  You must remember that this is still March and technically winter which is the typical slow time for the real estate market and that the higher priced homes have not yet reached the market value.

Still, the average sales price in Allen Park for February was $72,323 and the average days on the real estate market was 85 days.  This accounts for 12 sales during the month that were privately owned as compared to a total of 29 sales if you include the non-privately owned (bank owned, HUD and other 3rd party sales like estate sales).

Right now there are 129 homes for sale in the Allen Park real estate market at an average list price of $110,474.  Since we sold 29 during the month of February, that means we have a 4 1/2 month inventory of houses heading into the traditional selling time.  To me this is great news because I can remember when this months of inventory was 8 or 9 in Allen Park.

Check out this Budget Planner Spreadsheet to help you with your finances when it comes to the real estate market at this time.

Home Buyers Need To Take Advantage

Monday, March 9th, 2009

Yesterday, March 6, 2009, was the warmest day of the year and must of had everyone thinking of spring.  I did not drive by a golf course, but surely there must have been some people playing.  I did see the Detroit River and most if not all of the ice is gone as it is on our streets, driveways and yards.  There is no guarantee that this weather will last, but it is a sure sign that Spring is not far away and that we are also in a transition toward warmer and better times.

Spring is also the traditional time for the beginning of our home buying and selling market.  Most of our houses are bought and sold between spring and the beginning of the fall school year.  This season presents many opportunities.  Not only for people who are buying their first house, but also for those who have an opportunity to “Buy Up” to that house that before was out of their reach and only a dream.  First time home buyers have a historically first time to take advantage of a refundable tax credit on next years tax return to help them finance the cost of a home purchase and move up sellers have the opportunity to buy their dream home at a lower price and at a lower interest rate.

Spring is a transition time from a long cold winter to fresh air and warmer weather and renewing our housing market is a transition time that is the beginning getting our economy back on track.  No one can predict the bottom and buy their home at the precise exact most advantageous moment so don’t sit on the sidelines and let this opportunity pass.

First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit

Wednesday, March 4th, 2009

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act as it pertains to first time home buyers who purchase single family residential property on or after January 1, 2009 and before December1, 2009.  A person is considered a first time home buyer if they have not owned a principle residence in 3 year previous to purchase.  Tax credits for purchases made between Jan.1, 2009 and Dec. 1,2009 are a “refundable tax credit” that amounts to 10% of the purchase price not to exceed $8,000.

An example would be the purchase of a $90,000 house.  10% of $90,000 equals $9,000.  The tax credit cannot exceed $8,000, therefore the amount of credit the purchaser receives on his/her 2009 tax return is $8,000.  Lets say you work a regular 40 hour week and taxes are withheld from your pay check each pay day.  At the end of the year you do not owe taxes nor will you receive a tax refund.  The $8,000 tax credit is added to the amount of tax withholding that was deducted during the previous year and in this example the tax payer would receive an $8,000 tax refund!

By the way, did I mention that this tax credit is a gift for first time home buyers and not a loan…you don’t have to pay it back!!  That is as long as you stay in the house for a minimum of 3 years.

A $90,000 house can be purchased on an FHA mortgage for about $8,000.  So, if you qualify as a first time home buyer, you can buy a house for nothing or near to nothing.  This is just another reason why now is one of the best times for first time home buyers.  Please note that I am not a tax preparer and this information should be confirmed by your tax professional.

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