For the month of July . . . 

392  - Single Family Homes sold in Ada County in July.  
510 – the number sold during July 2009.  24% fewer.
17% – were short sales
29% – were bank-owned
54% – were non-default.
160 – days on market for short sales
  48 – days on market for bank owned
  82 – days on market for non-default
$195,595 – average price for SFH in Ada Co.
$160,000 – median price for SFH in Ada Co.
3288 – number of active listings in July
.0972 – ratio of sold-to-ask price for non-default sales
.0971 – ratio of sold-to-ask price for bank-owned sales
.0976 – ratio of sold-to-ask price for short sales

There are the stats for single family home sales in Ada County for July.  But how do these numbers relate to their trends?  Where is the market going?

Right now, that’s not an easy question to answer.  The usual, annual real estate activity cycle has been skewed by the on-going macro-economic environment.  The usefulness of Year-over-Year comparisons has been diluted.  Market disturbances caused by short sales and bank-owned properties throw off trend-reading to the extent that extrapolations are strictly for entertainment.

I’ll provide the analogs, and you can make your own assumptions. 

Here are the monthly home sales for the year so far: 
J/279, F/350, M/567, A/659, M/625, J/630, J/392

 The profile for home sales activity through each year is a fixed perennial template.  To wit:  (click on the graphic to enlarge)

The only thing that really changes is the amplitude, depending on the level of activity, for any particular year.

Average and Median prices:  Providing there are no more government-policy, or finance- industry unexploded IEDs, it appears that local prices have bounced off the bottom twice.  The latest trough may have been a result of the volume of buyers taking advantage of the First-Timer/Move-Up tax credit.  The bulk of those sales occurred in the lower price- strata, pulling the overalls lower, up to the time of the offer’s expiration.

 Here’s what prices look like graphically, beginning from January ‘07 

The most interesting statistic is the sold-to-ask price ratio.  This may be another indication that prices have bottomed.  Each is less than three percent lower than the asking price.  A year ago, this ratio was around 5 to 6 percent of the asking price.  This current compression just might be signaling an impending transition from a buyer’s to a seller’s market.  At the least, we may be looking at an impending balanced market.

Finally, what has the composition of sold homes been doing?  Are there really more short sales coming into the market?  Or, are foreclosures overwhelming normal, non-default sales?  See for yourself . . .

It looks as though the trend is that non-default offerings are returning to being the norm – but slowly.  Keep in mind that those that were once among the short sale offerings may shift at any time by force of foreclosure into a bank-owned offering.  So, the short sale results are more like the result of a snapshot than a true comparison of short sales vs non-defaults vs bank-owned properties.

My conclusion:  If you have been thinking about buying, or selling, but waiting for a sign –you may be staring into an incipient Green Light.